One expert already predicts the Badgers to win. Rob Moseley of the Register-Guard, beat writer extraordinaire among Duck fans, has the game 28-24, Wisconsin. Moseley, having picked Oregon to beat Ohio State, Auburn and LSU, now says the Ducks have to prove it, outplaying their opponent in a big game instead of falling flat.
The matchup with Wisconsin looks more favorable than their previous confrontations against the nation’s elite squads.
Photo right: Shining moment for a young legend? Oregon’s chances for their first Rose Bowl victory in 94 years increase dramatically with a big game from their explosive all-purpose threat, freshman De’Anthony Thomas (koin.com photo).
Like it or not, the Webfoots’ reputation is at stake in this game. They’re 33-6 under Chip Kelly, but 33-2 in conference games and against routine nonconference opponents, and 0-4 against Boise State, Ohio State, Auburn and LSU. Aaron Fentress of the Oregonian pointed out this week that in those four games, UO managed a dismal 17.8 points a game and and average of 95 yards a game rushing. In their 33-2 run of domination, they exploded for 45.9 points per contest and a whopping 291 yard average on the ground.
To make the leap to the next level and truly be considered a national power, Oregon needs a convincing win over Bret Bielema and the Badgers. The Ducks have won 42 games since 2008, the most in school history over any 4-game stretch, but they don’t have that signature accomplishment. The closest moment is the convincing win over Oklahoma State in the 2008 Holiday Bowl, but the Holiday isn’t a Rose.
If the Ducks lift a trophy in the Granddaddy, it’s their first since 1917. In fact this is only the Ducks’ third Rose Bowl in the last 50 years.
Oregon and Wisconsin have a lot in common. Fans of both schools endured a long period of losing, years on the bottom rung of college football, programs that were laughingstocks, regularly featured in The Bottom Ten. From 1965-1993, Duck fans suffered through 20 losing seasons with only a couple of minor bowls. From 1964-1992, the Badger faithful watched 24 losing campaigns, with only three minor bowl appearances to relieve the misery.
Both programs were revived under long-term coaches, Barry Alvarez at Wisconsin, who won three Rose Bowls, and Mike Bellotti at Oregon, who got the Ducks to number two in the country in 2001. Now, both teams are fixtures in the Top 15. A big win by either puts them squarely in the hunt for a top preseason ranking and a place on the short list of contenders for next year’s title.
Nationally, the early favorite next year will overwhelmingly be the LSU Tigers. In true SEC fashion they play 8 home games next season, including North Texas, Idaho and Towson, plus the Washington Huskies on September 8, also in Death Valley.
The Rose Bowl is a contrast of styles but not of results. Both schools are 11-2 and conference champions. The Ducks’ run at the BCS ended with a field goal wide left. The Badgers died on two Hail Mary plays in the middle of the season, heart-breaking, last-minute losses to Michigan State and Ohio State. Oregon scored 82 touchdowns this season, Wisconsin 80. One school averages 46 points a game, the other 44.
The well-chronicled, imposing strengths of the Wisconsin squad: they are two plays away from the national title game. They scored 80 touchdowns this year and settled for just 7 field goals. They achieved 96% success in the red zone, 7 for 7 on third and goal. The offensive line averages 6-5 320, featuring an All-American at center and two other all-conference, future NFL players. Heisman finalist Monte Ball rushed for over 1750 yards and 38 touchdowns, the td mark just one shy of Barry Sander’s all-time NCAA record. Russell Wilson, their tremendous dual-threat quarterback, completed 72.5% of his passes with 31 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions. On defense, starting linebackers Mike Borland and Chris Taylor each had over 130 tackles this season. This is a very good, deep, effective, relentless Wisconsin team.
Wisconsin had only 8 turnovers all season. The Ducks suffered 12 lost fumbles and 6 interceptions.
Ball, their workhorse, has great vision and a good burst. He’s elusive and breaks tackles, uses his blockers extremely well. In the Big Ten title game, they handed him the ball on the first five plays, for 53 yards, with the last one a student body left for a 26-yard game. Then they threw a slant pass to Lee Toon for another big first down, the physical, solidly-built Toon shielding the ball from the defender, then another slant pass on third and goal for another score.
In their last two games, Wisconsin has recovered a fumble on a kickoff return for a short field and a quick touchdown. For the season, though, their kickoff coverage ranked last in the Big Ten. This could be a potential difference maker for Oregon. Explosive freshman De’Anthony Thomas averaged 27.7 yards per return this year, with touchdown returns of 93 and 96 yards. Big plays in the return game could spring the Quack attack, but Badger coaches have had a month to shore up this weakness.
Another possible Oregon advantage: Nick Aliotti’s crew led the nation in sacks with 43 this season. The Badgers gave up 23 on the year despite Wilson’s mobility. Containing him and disrupting the Badger passing game is their best chance of getting stops. At least part of the time and for certain stretches of the game, the Duck defense has to bottle up Ball and force some third and longs, then get pressure. But the UW offense is tops in the country in passing down situations.
Wisconsin has a good but not dominant front four. They do have excellent depth in the defensive line, and should be able to use a hockey line change strategy to minimize fatigue. Oregon has to execute well on offense, get a good game from Darron Thomas and the receivers, and they must be able to run the football. Some points or big yards in the return game will be an enormous plus.
Now 0-4 in those elite teams/extra-time-to-prepare/long layoff games under Kelly, the Ducks must break the pattern in Pasadena with good execution and avoiding turnovers and a rash of penalties. In the PAC-12 Championship Game, the Ducks had 10 penalties for 120 yards.
Michigan State moved the football with tremendous effectiveness against Wisconsin, using outside runs, bubble screens and quick passes. They beat the Badgers on the sidelines, at the edges and in space. The Spartans, however, got a precise and resourceful performance from quarterback Kirk Cousins, one of the Big Ten’s best, and his receivers made clutch, tough, catches over the middle and in traffic. Oregon’s receiver group hasn’t had the kind of consistency all year. That group needs to play their best game in Pasadena.
In their big-game losses, the Ducks haven’t been able to block or move the ball in the running game. Wisconsin ranks just 46th in the nation against the run, giving up 138 yards per game. For the spread, penetration is depth. Boise State, Ohio State, Auburn and LSU all blew up the line of scrimmage against the offense, disrupting plays with quick penetration inside. The Ducks suffered too many negative plays and long yardage situations, never establishing their rhythm and tempo, which is so essential to the Oregon offense.
Both teams are relatively healthy after the break. Wisconsin got great news this week when All-American center Peter Konz was pronounced ready to play, practicing with the first team offense after missing three games with a dislocated ankle. For UO, dangerous outside receiver Josh Huff is still bothered by a stress fracture in his leg, an injury he’s played through this season even as it’s hampered him, his production down from an outstanding freshman season. Huff did come on as the season wound down. He had a 59-yard catch and run against Stanford for a touchdown, 5 catches for 57 yards against USC, and 4 catches for 57 yards in the PAC-12 Championship versus UCLA.
Wisconsin is missing David Gilbert, their quickest defensive end and best pass rusher, out since October with a foot injury. Coaches are saving him for next season with a medical redshirt. Oregon lost starting guard Ramsen Golpashin to a season-ending knee injury midway through the year, and Justin Hoffman is doubtful after continuing issues with concussions.
To win, the Ducks need consistency, execution and some big plays. Dream scenario: they get LaMichael James loose in the running game and he outduels or negates Ball. Meanwhile, De’Anthony Thomas, playing at home for the first time in Southern California, has a breakout, big day to cap his marvelous freshman season, scoring three times on a kickoff return, a pass and reverse, launching his campaign for the 2012 Heisman. Nick Aliotti puts together another good plan for a big game defense, and the Ducks outlast a very good Wisconsin team for their first BCS win since the 2001 Fiesta, their second Rose Bowl trophy ever.
Happy are those who dream dreams, and are ready to pay the price to make them come true.
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