There were days, wonderful days, when Sergei Bobrovsky was among the very best goalies in the NHL. The Columbus Blue Jackets prospered in those days, coming a point shy of the playoffs one year, and in a post-season match against Pittsburgh the next. The memories were (and are) wonderful, but seem so far now.
#CBJ Artem Anisimov on Bobrovsky: "He's the Bob when we need him to be the Bob." #wellallrightythen
— Aaron Portzline (@Aportzline) April 20, 2014
Last season, Sergei Bobrovsky was not the Bob his team needed. His downfall came early, and continued in two ways: Bob’s play on-ice never reached his highest highs, and he was unable to stay healthy long enough to make a serious on-ice impact. It was a nightmare scenario for Columbus, and one that helped sink the team right away.
The Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Beginning
Independent of Bobrovsky’s career context, I think it’s worth remembering the start of the 2015-16 season in a bit of isolation. As you may recall (or wish to forget), the Jackets opened their year with eight consecutive losses.
On the offensive side, Columbus scored a total of 15 goals in that span. An average of just under two goals scored per game isn’t easy going, it’s also not impossible. The team also averaged 31.6 shots per game at all strengths (we won’t worry about breaking apart even strength and special teams just yet). It’s not as if they weren’t awake in the offensive zone; the SH% just wasn’t quite there.
Meanwhile, in that eight game streak the Jackets only surrendered an average of 28.8 shots against per game (again, all strengths). Unfortunately for Columbus, that came with 37 total goals against, or 4.6 against per game.
The total save percentage? .839. .839 is laughable. It’s so bad, I have a hard time thinking about it.
Let’s pretend for a minute that the CBJ somehow gutted out a more respectable and yet still awful .900 SV% in all situations. That would mean only 2.9 goals against per game. .900 would still not be at league average, and yet just getting to normal sub-replacement levels would have brought the Jackets within shouting distance, rather than completely buried by goals against.
And, my goodness, were they ever buried. Sergei Bobrovsky was the starting goalie in six of those eight games, and his save percentage in that span (at all strengths) was a putrid .840. Bob’s very best game by save percentage was .879 with 4 goals against versus Buffalo. Yes, the one-time Vezina winner didn’t finish a single game with a SV% above .870 in that opening run to the bottom.
In the words of Jeff Marek, “Will somebody please stop the puck here!”
And so with that, the season was over before it could even get off the ground. A coach was fired, positive shot efforts were completely thrown away, and the Jackets held the worst record in the league.
Bobrovsky and Larger Concerns
That whole starting bit is reason enough to give Bob a failing grade on the year. The situation is no more or less depressing when considering the rest of the season, things just become more complicated.
It’s easy to look at Bob’s fall from grace in the context of his highest highs. In the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season, Bobrovsky finished the year with a .941 5-on-5 save percentage (using data from Corsica). For the 2015-16 season, Bob ended with a .915 at 5 on 5. But you already know: that’s weighed down by a rough 6-game span to start. Bobrovsky’s 5-on-5 SV% in those first six games? .840.
Let’s consider this in a visual way. Using custom query data from Corsica’s Goalie page, here’s a 5-game rolling average of Sergei Bobrovsky’s 5 vs 5 save percentage for the 2012-13 season (the Vezina year) and the 2015-16 season (last year).
I’ve also plotted the league average 5 vs 5 SV% from 2015-16 as the dashed line (about .925 in 2015-16, slightly lower the lockout-shortened year). Vezina Bob is plotted in blue, and last year’s Bob is in red.
The difference is in the valleys and peaks, especially that opening valley. It’s worth noting, Bobrovsky finished the rest of the 2015-16 season with a slightly above average .928 at 5-on-5. It’s not his monstrous Vezina year, but it’s a climb back toward respectability.
Unfortunately, we can’t just throw away those 6 games, however much we’d like to. And this season-long performance issue is compounded by two very practical concerns for the Blue Jackets. First, Sergei Bobrovsky has the second-largest AAV of any goalie in the NHL (via General Fanager). I’ve expressed general concerns about massive goalie pay in this space before. The situation becomes all the more troubling when a giant goalie contract is attached to below-average play over the course of a whole season (or even simply attached to the incredible uncertainty found in an unexpected 6-game run of doom).
The second complication is the injury issue. The above plot fits both seasons nicely because of a low number of games played for Bobrovsky in each year (38 and 37, respectively). This should be a concern, as you may recall that one of those years only featured 41 total games on the schedule. This past year, several groin injuries contributed to long stretches out of the net for Columbus’ regular starter.
It’s the combination of factors that made 2015-16 so rough for Sergei Bobrovsky. A bad start, inconsistent performance, and long injury times are made all the more concerning when connected to a big salary hit.
Voodoo Goalies and the Season to Come
The two biggest lingering questions for the Columbus goalie situation are possibly the most important issues for the entire Blue Jackets team. First, will Sergei Bobrovsky return to his top form? Second, will Bobrovsky stay healthy enough to contribute regularly?
The former question is all but impossible to answer. If we follow the Tulsky performance forecast from Bobrovsky’s early career, he projected as an above-average netminder. It’s the exercise I explored in January 2015. The problem? The Russian netminder followed his two best 5-on-5 SV% years with one average year (.925 in 2014-15) and one below average (.915 in 2015-16). Is that a downward trend? Is that 6-game run just a fluke? Can we trust the voodoo of goalie performance enough to forecast success?
The injury concern also brings uncertainty, but the Blue Jackets have made some efforts to rectify Bobrovsky’s situation (and conditioning problems for the team as a whole). This July, Aaron Portzline reported on the CBJ hiring Nelson Ayotte, a conditioning coach from St. Louis (via the Dispatch). In his article, Portzline got a few comments from GM Jarmo Kekalainen discussing the pickup. “I’m going to try to get those two (Ayotte and Bobrovsky) on the same page in short order,” GM Kekalainen told the Dispatch. He continues, noting, “It’s a huge priority to make sure [Bobrovsky’s] going to stay healthy and perform at his best.”
The GM’s statement rings true, and strong goaltending is a desperate need. The trouble lies in the unclear road ahead and the poor play in the recent past.
BOB ROSSKY! pic.twitter.com/6DXXEVfHsq
— Bonk's Mullet (@BonksMullet) November 17, 2013
2015-16 Grade: F
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