What a difference a year can make. The rise of William Karlsson from this time last year has been arguably the largest of all Jackets skaters. Originally a 2nd round pick by the Ducks in 2011 (oddly enough taken sixteen picks after Boone Jenner, thirteen after Brandon Saad, and one before Scott Harrington), Karlsson is basically the only remaining piece of the James Wisniewski trade.
After joining the CBJ organization, Karlsson was less than impressive, most notably notching a whopping 0 points in 15 AHL games. Last summer, Karlsson was ranked 7th on the Buckeye State Hockey top prospect list. Going into training camp, Karlsson was something of an afterthought, figuring to battle for a depth spot but more likely to end up in a scoring role in the AHL. Instead, he won a job out of camp and never looked back. By the end of the year he made our list CBJ’s most improved players. Beyond just being improved, he was also very solid in his role, finishing with a B grade in his Season in Review.
Karlsson ended up playing 81 games with the CBJ last season, split mostly between the third and fourth lines. His boxcar stats were nothing to write home about, with only 9 goals, 11 assists for 20 points. However, he was quite good when it came to possession, finishing top five among CBJ forwards in Corsi For %, while playing among the toughest minutes of all Jackets forwards, and with the least talented linemates. Even further, most of his CBJ teammates were better with Karlsson than without him. He even managed to work his way into a notable role on the penalty kill, leading all Jackets fowards in shorthanded time on ice.
All of this led to a very reasonable two year extension, for $1M per season. It seems likely that Karlsson will be able to outperform that extension, especially if he can work his way up into consistent third line minutes with more talented linemates. However, I have tempered expectations when it comes to Karlsson ultimate offensive value. He’s a talented two-way player, who has shown tremendous defensive value, but that has yet to translate to the offensive end. But he also hasn’t been a notable goal scorer, or point producer at any level in his career. I think this is where a bit of a disconnect comes in with Karlsson, as he doesn’t look like the player that he is. He has solid puck skills, has flashy long blond hair, and weighs a whopping 188 pounds. Guys that look like that on the ice are very rarely one-dimensional defensive specialists. Those types of players tend to look and play like Gregory Campbell, and ultimately that is where I see Karlsson’s future. As a very good defensive bottom six forward, and any offensive production is simply a bonus. Asking for anything more than that from Karlsson may be asking too much.
Future Outlook
He will be battling Sam Gagner for the third line center role. If he loses that fight, he will likely end up centering the fourth line, hopefully pushing Gregory Campbell to the press box. If the Jackets can stay healthy (knock on wood), and keep the right youngsters in camp, Karlsson could end up on the fourth line and still play with better linemates than last see. Besides what happens at five-on-five, Karlsson will continue to see plenty of time on the penalty kill, likely staying on the top PK unit again. I would also expect to see him as one of the first candidates to move up the lineup whenever injuries or ineffectiveness hit the top nine forwards.
Age: 23 (01/08/1993)
Position: Center
Shoots: Left
Height/Weight: 6’1″, 188lbs
2015/16 Team: Columbus Blue Jackets (NHL)
Likely 2016/17 Destination: Columbus Blue Jackets
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