Oregon at Stanford is building momentum for a very big game. ESPN College Game Day is setting up for a Thursday afternoon broadcast live from the Stanford campus, and Kirk Herbstreit, Scott Van Pelt and Mark May will be at the desk. Rece Davis, David Pollack and Jesse Palmer are in the booth for the contest, a 6:00 P.M. Pacific kickoff on the network.
The matchup of #2 at #5 has the attention of the country, and that’s good. After Florida State’s win over Miami last Saturday, the flavor of the month among college football pundits is that the Seminoles have been more dominant and impressive than Oregon, more deserving of that second slot in the BCS Championship.
The Ducks not only have the opportunity to play Stanford, but to change minds in a very tight horse race for the two slots in the final. Oregon has four games remaining, all against teams with winning records, a combined 29-12. None of FSU’s remaining four games involves an opponent with a winning record, 20-22 overall. The Noles won’t face another ranked team until the ACC title game, giving the Ducks the advantage in the polls and computers, provided they complete the task on the field.
Fateful brain cramp: other errors followed it, but if De’Anthony Thomas gets in the way of Stanford safety Devon Carrington (#5) on this 77-yard run in the first quarter of last year’s Stanford-Oregon game, Marcus Mariota scores easily. Instead, the Ducks turned the ball over on downs after first and goal at the 8, and The Cardinal went on to a 17-14 overtime victory that cost the Ducks a shot at Notre Dame in the national title game.
De’Anthony Thomas talked to the media after practice Monday morning and he told them, “We should put up at least 40” on The Cardinal. Take it as a sign The Black Momba is at full health and ready to accelerate, ready to back the words with some pride and productivity. But it’s the kind of declaration that makes coaches cringe, and often finds its way to an opposing locker room. Expect Thomas to take some shots in the game if they catch him. The Stanford front seven, brainy mercenaries that they are, have no doubt studied the film that shows UCLA linebacker Jordan Zumwalt tossing the diminutive speedster like a Halloween straw man, later making a gesture of putting him to sleep after rocking his dome on a hit over the middle. Shane Skov and A.J. Tarpley will be prepared with some hits and gestures of their own.
(Video from goducks.com).
Thomas has put himself in a position where he has to answer with his feet. It was a case of DAT just being DAT, spontaneous, unfiltered, child-like in some ways, but football players, particularly defensive players, will use just about anything to stoke themselves up for a game, even perceiving a slight in a casual expression of confidence.
Joseph Hoyt of the Daily Emerald asked Scott Frost what his offense has to do to be effective against a Cardinal defense that held UO to 14 points last year.
“Giving them some things they’ve never seen before,” Frost said. “Try to do some new things. They are pretty smart. If they can dial you in they’ll have a pretty good chance at you.”
“I think their defensive backfield is as good as it’s been since I’ve been at Oregon,” he added. “I think they played harder then we did last year and that showed up across the board.”
Oregon has to mix it up, find rhythm, be crisp. Build tempo with execution. Use the short pass to loosen up the running lanes. Get opportunities to use their speed, and defeat some of those one-on-one tackles with an open field. According to collegefootballstats.com Stanford’s D ranks 95th against the pass, allowing 250 yards per game. They’re 11 spots behind Oregon in red zone defense, allowing a score 76% of the time.
The run defense is the critical matchup for the Ducks. Anchored by 6-2, 303-lb. David Parry in the middle flanked by four quick, aggressive, hard-hitting linebackers, Derek Mason’s defensive unit limits opponents to 103.9 yards a game on the ground, 11th-best in the country. The Quack Attack comes into the game ranked 2nd in the nation in rushing offense, 331.5 yards a game.
Can the Oregon offensive line move The Cardinal off the ball? Hamani Stevens, starting right guard for the Ducks told reporters this week, “This game is on us,” meaning the offensive line. Stanford gave up 28 to Arizona State in a second-half rally that fell way short, 28 to Washington in a comeback bid that ended with a pass caught on a bounce on 4th down, and they yielded 27 to Utah in a Saturday night game in Salt Lake City, their only loss of the year.
Tyler Wilson and the Ute’s spread offense churned out 410 yards on the vaunted Stanford D, and Kyle Whittingham’s crew got their first win at home over a top-five opponent, 27-21. Was is a blueprint to beat the Cardinal? Do the Ducks need one?
This Stanford team isn’t as good as the two that won BCS bowls the last two seasons. The offense sputters. They won 20-12 over the Beavers in Corvallis a week ago Saturday, bested UCLA 24-10 the week after the lost to Utah. It’s a group that can’t play from behind and would have trouble in a shootout. The Stanford tight ends used to be a feared weapon; this year they have just six catches. Tyler Gaffney is a capable running back, but he’s a notch below Stepfan Taylor.
Stanford defensive end Ben Gardner is out with a torn pectoral muscle, and that’s a big loss.
The Ducks are faster and have a great variety of offensive weapons. One lingering question for Oregon is the health and mobility of Marcus Mariota: he’s an X factor if he can run, but against UCLA he wore a knee brace in the second half, carrying the football just 7 times for 18 yards in the game, his lowest output of the season. His explosiveness adds a lot to what the Ducks can do and what Stanford has to defend. It’s something to watch early, something there’s been little news of over the last week.
The Cardinal have a dangerous kick returner in Ty Montgomery. He already has two returns for touchdowns this season, including a 100-yarder. Oregon kickoff specialist Matt Wogan has has 16 touchbacks so far, but he’s also shown a maddening tendency to kick the ball out of bounds, 7 times setting opponents up at the 35-yard-line. The Oregon return game has been quiet since Bralon Addison returned two punts for scores against Cal. Perhaps this is the opportunity for The Black Momba to back up his pregame display of confidence.
Oregon is fourth in the country in turnover margin at +1.63. The Cardinal are 63rd at 0.0, meaning they turn the ball over as often as they pick one up. Some folks say that stat is random and meaningless, and all that it means is that the Ducks have just gotten lucky. Indeed, the leaders in the category include Houston, Buffalo, UCF and North Texas, not exactly terrors of the gridiron.
Even so, turnovers and points off turnovers are nearly always a critical part of a big game. And this is a big game, a real test. Even ESPN says so.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
