Oregon is a better team in 2013, and Stanford is a slightly worse one.
Last year, the Ducks were beat up going into the Cardinal game. They started true freshmen DeForest Buckner, Arik Armstead and Alex Balducci on the defensive line, after ripping off Balducci’s redshirt the week before against Cal. Defensive stalwarts Dion Jordan, Taylor Hart, Ricky Heimuli and Wade Keliikipi were all banged up. Tony Washington, still a young player at that time, started in place of Jordan.
Keying on Kenyon: last year Stanford had all the answers in a physical test with the Oregon Ducks, prevailing 17-14 in overtime at Autzen Stadium. A year later the Quack Attack has more variety and more potent weapons, looking for a different result in Palo Alto.
The patchwork defensive line played gamely, but the Ducks didn’t have much in the tank when Stanford started their decisive tying drive in the fourth quarter. Hogan had plenty of time to throw, leaking out of the pocket when he needed to, finding Zac Ertz repeatedly for key first downs, then the tying touchdown.
Zach Ertz is gone. Stepfan Taylor has graduated. Defensive end Ben Gardner is out for the year. Tyner Gaffney runs capably behind his huge offensive line, but he’s not as powerful or dangerous as Taylor. Devon Cajuste, Kodi Whitfield and Ty Montgomery provide an effective play-action passing game for the Cardinal, but Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Terrance Mitchell and Troy Hill match up very well. The Stanford tight ends have been a nonfactor this year
This season, the Ducks are loaded and deep on the defensive line. Those emergency starters of a year ago now seasoned veterans, and the players they replaced, Hart, Havili-Heimuli and Wade K., are all healthy and playing the best football of their Oregon careers. They should make a decisive difference in the mano-a-mano confrontation with the Stanford power attack, an offense that’s been frankly pedestrian since a big win over Washington State in week four, turning out 31, 21, 24 and 20 points in their last four games, a stretch that includes a 27-21 upset loss to Utah.
The Cardinal offense doesn’t look capable of keeping pace with Oregon, provided the Ducks can move the football on a defense that has limited opponents to 19.4 points a game, holding the Quack Attack to 14 in last year’s overtime win.
To paraphrase the immortal Lucy Van Pelt, tell your last year’s statistics to shut up. This year Oregon’s offense is significantly more potent than 2012. For one, after 21 games as the starter, Marcus Mariota is sharper and more decisive, in command, the acknowledged leader of the unit rather than a mere distributor. He’s been fully unleashed, operating a downfield passing attack that features Josh Huff (38 receptions, 703 yards, 6 tds, 18.5 yards a catch) and Bralon Addison (38 catches, 609 yards, 7 tds, 16.0 yards per reception). The bit players in the passing game, Keanon Lowe, Daryle Hawkins, Johnny Mundt, Pharaoh Brown, Byron Marshall and Thomas Tyner, have all made big plays, with long receptions of 40, 45, 57, 40, 24, 36 and 23 yards.
A lot has been said this week about Stanford’s Ty Montgomery and how dangerous he is for The Cardinal, but both Huff and Addison have been bigger threats this season offensively, and the overall productivity of Mariota’s passing targets dwarfs what they are doing on The Farm.
Oregon has a lot more ways to attack and spread a defense in 2013. It’s a more potent offense led by a quarterback with the experience and confidence to spread the ball around and choose the best option even under pressure. Added to that, this week the Ducks get the tremendous additional threat of De’Anthony Thomas returned to the lineup at full health and mobility. The last time he played in Palo Alto, he beat the Stanford defense for a 41-yard touchdown on fourth and six. It was a simple halfback screen in the right flat where guard Mark Asper got in the way of linebacker A.J. Tarpley. Thomas outran everybody else.
Byron Marshall and Thomas Tyner have done a superb job supplying the running punch for the Ducks in Thomas’ absence since he went down with an ankle injury on the opening kickoff of the monsoon game with Cal. Marshall’s blasted, spun and darted for five straight 100-yard games, and Tyner has 8 touchdowns and 437 yards as a true freshman, 6.4 yards a carry, including a 66-yard td run against Washington State. In the Ducks’ 42-14 win over UCLA, the ultra-fast freshman took over from Marshall in the fourth quarter, punishing a worn-down Bruin defense with 14 carries for 77 yards, at a point in the game when the Ducks were running on every play. Both Marshall and Tyner have shown power to go with breakaway ability, a combination that’s made the Webfoots the #2 rushing team in the country at 331.5 yards a game.
With a quick, smart, aggressive front seven, The Cardinal contain the run as well as anyone in the country, allowing just 103.8 yards a game on the ground through the season’s first 8 games. They held the Ducks to just 198 yards last year, and outside of a 77-yard burst by Marcus Mariota in the first quarter, thoroughly frustrated Oregon’s patented zone-read.
But this year the Ducks have a healthier offensive line, a better passing game, a more experienced quarterback, and the return of a potent offensive weapon who’s eager to show he’s still one of the most dangerous weapons in college football.
De’Anthony Thomas has speed that changes games. In the open field, he can make good players look silly and outrun almost anyone along the sideline. After a solid start he’s been neutralized by injury and some play-calling that forced him into a role he’s not built for.
Against Stanford, expect offensive coordinator Scott Frost and the Ducks to incorporate The Black Momba in a more meaningful way. The Cardinal will have to account for him. A.J. Tarpley and Shane Skov will have to guard him one-on-one. The Ducks will switch it up in different looks, spread the field, hit Mundt and Brown behind the backers if they cheat up to contain Mariota, hide Thomas in various roles across the formation, forcing Derek Mason’s defense to point him out and shift to cover him on every down.
This season, The Cardinal face a rested, determined opponent instead of beat-up, worn-down, tentative one. The mindset is different. The level of readiness is improved. This is the best Oregon team ever, with the best opportunity in school history to win a national title. The current Ducks would beat last year’s team by 10, and the 2010 squad by two touchdowns. They should respect Stanford, but there’s no reason why they should fear them.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=g5FCE9AcShY
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