Bill Connelly writes in-depth analysis and commentaries on football that are the product of careful research and a fierce devotion to statistical insight.
He uses numbers to get to the heart of winning and losing, and gets way past the cliches of ex-jocks in too-tight suits blathering with a telestrator. Sometimes, his analysis gets as detailed as trigonometry and calculus class, something that makes a casual fan's eyes start to glaze over, but the gist of what he's talking about is nearly always solid and understandable.
Connelly is the author of the book Football Study Hall, and he also writes regular columns for the websites SB Nation and Football Outsiders. In a recent column for SB Nation, "The Five Factors: College Football's most important stats" he drills down into the numbers and reaches these conclusions:
If you win the explosiveness battle, you win 86 percent of the time.
If you win the efficency battle, you win 83 percent of the time.
If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.
Looking at the Ducks 2013 season, it was diminished results in all five of these areas that led to a so-so 11-2 season. Mark Helfrich and Scott Frost's first team was less efficient finishing drives, misplaced its explosiveness in losses to Stanford and Arizona. They suffered penalties and turnovers at critical times and left points on the field in key games. With the defense unable to stop a power running game, they were helpless in the field position battle.
If the coaches want to improve results and achieve this team's potential this season, showing significant improvement in discipline and execution, measured by these critical five factors, will be imperative.
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