Let this historic 2016 World Series match-up soak in for a moment. After all, it’s been 68 years since the Cleveland Indians won the World Series and 108 years for the Chicago Cubs. We need to remember that generations have waited a lifetime for this opportunity to see their team win it all. Many didn’t live long enough to get the chance.
The world was a much different place when the Indians were the champions in 1948. World War II had ended only three years earlier and Jackie Robinson and Larry Doby had broken the color barrier in baseball that very year.
Nearly every single person on Earth who was alive when the Cubs won in 1908 is no longer with us. Back then, the automobile was just coming into existence back and the Wright Brothers had flown their plane less than five years prior.
Now, international news is available within seconds of it happening and baseball fans are privileged to have detailed information and statistics on nearly every facet of a game the moment after it happens. We know almost instantly exactly how fast and how far a ball is hit, how efficient an outfielder was in his route to catch a ball, and even the number of spin rotations a baseball makes during its trip to the plate after leaving the pitcher’s hand.
But the game of baseball still boils down to the same basic concept now as it did so many years ago. If you score at least one more run than the other team, then you win, and great pitching and good defense will usually defeat great hitting.
For the Tribe, this series is not simply about the joy of getting to the World Series. It’s about winning it. The Indians are considered a big underdog, but from the Cleveland perspective, falling short of the title would still be bitterly disappointing. That’s because the Indians have overcome so much and have been counted out so many times this year, that it seems like a World Series title is finally within reach. This team plays looser and with more fun than any other Tribe team I’ve seen. It feels like this is OUR time.
On the flipside, the Cubs haven’t been to a World Series since 1945, but the oddsmakers list them as the favorite. Regardless, the game still need to be played on the field and not outside the lines. Thanks to the American League winning the 2016 All-Star game, the Indians will once again have home-field advantage for the seven-game World Series against the Cubs. Cleveland will host the first two games starting on October 25 and 26, then the teams will head to Chicago for Game 3 and 4, and possibly 5 to be played October 28-30. If the series lasts longer, game 6 and 7 would be played in Cleveland on November 1-2, where the Indians were 53-28 at home in the regular season.
Here’s a look at how the Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs compare in this World Series:
Offense
Chicago is a team that can score runs in a variety of ways and scored 808 in the regular season to rank second in the National League averaging 4.98 runs a game. The Cubs hit 199 home runs and slashed .256/.343/.429 (.772 OPS) during the regular season. At home, Chicago slashed .254/.348/.419 (.768 OPS) and on the road a similar slash line of .258/.339/.437/ (.776 OPS). They were lead by sluggers Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Addison Russell, who hit a combined 92 home runs and drove in 306 runs. Ben Zobrist also chipped in with 18 home runs and 76 RBI. It’s an offense that can strike fear into an opposing pitching staff.
The Indians ranked second in the American League in runs scored with 777 to average about 4.83 runs per game. The balanced attack is led by Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor and the streaky Mike Napoli, who can carry the team when he heats up in the middle of the order. Rajai Davis and his league-leading 41 steals could play a role especially against a pitcher like Jon Lester who is horrible at keeping runners close to the base. Role players including Brandon Guyer, Coco Crisp and Yan Gomes will play an added role especially when the series heads to Chicago and there is no DH in play. So expect some pinch hitting and double switches involving these players. The Tribe slashed .262/.329/.759 during the regular season with a .288/.359/.469 at home. On the road, the Tribe slashed .236/.300/.391.
Advantage: Chicago (just barely)
Starting Pitchers
Chicago hadn’t officially announced starters for the series as of this writing. But the staff is lead by a plethora of good starting pitching including John Lester (19-5, 2.44 ERA), Jake Arrieta (18-8, 3.10 ERA), Kyle Hendricks (16-8, 2.13 ERA) and John Lachey (11-8, 3.35 ERA) who each pitched in the NLCS. Jason Hammel also pitched well as a starter during the season for the Cubs and went 15-10 with a 3.83 ERA. This unit is the strength of the team and will be the key for Chicago to keep the Indians off the scoreboard early to avoid the Indians bullpen protecting leads.
Corey Kluber continues to lead the Indians staff and he is scheduled to start game 1. Kluber has been the Tribe’s best pitcher all season and will be counted on to come through once again. Trevor Bauer with his cut finger will hopefully be healed in time for time for him to pitch in game 2 as he’s the scheduled starter. Bauer is a battler and usually finds a way to keep the Tribe in the game long enough for the bullpen to take over with a lead. If he can’t go for game 2, Josh Tomlin will make the start instead. For now, Tomlin is scheduled to start game 3 in Chicago. What more can be said about the grit and determination of this guy? I love the Tribe’s chances when he’s on the mound during this postseason. As per usual, if Tomlin keeps the ball in the park, then he keeps the Tribe in the game and puts them in position to win.
I think Kluber is the best starting pitcher for either team in this series. However, Arrieta and Lester are right there next to Kluber and can be just as dominating. The Cubs overall depth with their starters could be troublesome for the Tribe. So that means the Indians offense will need to have quality at bats and work the counts when possible to hopefully score early and get to the middle relievers. That’s been the Tribe’s formula for success all postseason.
Advantage: Chicago
Relief Pitching
ALCS MVP Andrew Miller has so far posted some of the most dominating relief performances in postseason history. He has made MLB hitters look like LIttle Leaguers while doing so on the game’s biggest stage. Cleveland’s closer Cody Allen has been nearly as good and arms such as Bryan Shaw and Dan Otero have performed well in the postseason just as they did during the regular season. As I’ve written before, this is where the Indians have the greatest team advantage because if a starter can go five innings with a lead, the Indians can use that strength to close out the game. Each of these four relievers is capable of pitching more than one inning and we’ve seen Manager Terry Francona virtually do no wrong in how he’s handled the staff in October.
The Cubs bullpen is led by lefty flamethrower Aroldis Chapman and his 100-plus MPH fastball. It’s worth noting that for as dominating as he can be, Chapman did blow a save in the NLCS against the Dodgers although the Cubs still won the game. He also finished the series with a 3.86 ERA. The Cubs also have other solid options in relief including Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop and Carl Edwards Jr. It won’t be easy to score on this unit either, but if there is a chink in the Cubs armor, middle relief is where it can be.
Advantage: Indians
Defense
The Indians defense as a unit has been very solid during the playoffs and are led by potential Gold Glove winner Francisco Lindor (who is ranked as the best player in all of MLB by Fangraphs.com advanced statistics) at short and Jose Ramirez at third. Catcher Roberto Perez emerged as a defensive star in October as he consistently block balls thrown in the dirt by the pitching staff. The Indians also have good team speed at every position in the outfield.
Russell also is a potential Gold Glove option at shortstop and Jason Heyward at times is in the lineup because he’s a great defensive player in right field. David Ross can help control the running game on the basepaths, which is a strength of the Indians. The Cubs are a solid defensive team and was ranked by Fangraphs.com as the best team according to the website’s advanced statistics. The Indians were ranked fifth in those rankings.
Advantage: Indians (by a comfortable margin)
Overall
On paper, the Cubs would seem to have the better depth at starting pitching and the Indians will have to try to scratch out runs early to keep their winning formula of getting a lead to the bullpen. The Cubs also have a slight advantage on offense, but good pitching by Kluber, Bauer, Tomlin and the bullpen crew can negate that. Don’t discount homefield advantage especially if Cleveland can win the first two games at home. I also like the Indians overall team speed much more than the Cubs. Rajai Davis could prove to be Jon Lester’s worst nightmare and potentially provide an ability to get a run just by getting on base. Plus, the Indians have shown an ability to bunt, so I expect that to be utilized in the series as part of the package to score a run here and there. I don’t foresee the Tribe scoring with lots of crooked numbers in this series. I anticipate low scoring by both teams all the way through with few errors committed. That means the Tribe has an excellent chance to win this series because the bullpen is just so much better and Andrew Miller could again be the best player on either side. I also am not going to sell the Tribe short on the area of resiliency. This team have won in ways that have redefined what is considered conventional. They have overcome so much this season when everything seemed stacked against them and they I don’t expect that to change now.
Advantage: Indians
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