WORLD SERIES Game 1 Preview: Heavy Wait Title

The 112th World Series overflows with story lines:

• The Cubs have not won a championship since 1908; Cleveland has gone without since 1948.
• Indians Manager Terry Francona competes against a club assembled by Cubs architect Theo Epstein, reuniting the duo that ended Boston’s 86-year championship drought in 2004.
• After starting the season as New York Yankees teammates, relief aces Aroldis Chapman of the Cubs and Andrew Miller of the Indians will vie for bullpen supremacy.

It all begins tonight at Progressive Field which has become known as “Christmas In Cleveland.”

Historically, the winner of Game 1 goes on to take the whole series 64.1 percent of the time, so needless to say the two teams in question would love a 1-0 lead in this best-of-seven affair. As for the pitching matchup, the visiting Cubs will send out lefty Jon Lester, Cy Young candidate in the NL, to oppose right-hander Corey Kluber, Cy Young candidate in the AL.

Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44) 

You see Lester’s sparkling ERA above, which he authored over 202 2/3 innings. Along the way, he also registered a K/BB ratio of 3.79. Those are strong numbers, but he’s been on another level this postseason. In three starts across the 2016 NLDS and NLCS, Lester’s put up an ERA of 0.86 with 14 strikeouts against just two walks. For his troubles, he shared NLCS MVP honors with Javier Baez. Consider that to be part of his overall strong postseason resume: a 2.50 ERA and 3.74 K/BB ratio across 19 games, 17 of which have been starts.

The Indians this season have not been particularly effective against left-handed pitching, and Lester is of course one of the most suffocating lefty starters in all of baseball. That said, he must keep Cleveland off the bases. The 2016 Indians are very good at stealing bases and very good at taking the extra base. Lester, meantime, is famously bad at holding runners. The challenge for Cleveland is to make it that first 90 feet, which hasn’t been easy against Lester, especially lately.

Players currently on the Indians’ roster have combined to hit .290/.353/.468 against Lester for their careers, but only Rajai Davis has more than 19 plate appearances against him.

Lester’s Pick-off Problems

One of the most intriguing subplot involves Lester hoping to contain opposing runners. His issues are not limited to pickoff attempts. In the field, his throws veer in unexpected directions. He bounced the ball to first base after fielding a bunt in Game 5 of the National League Division Series. On another occasion this season, he threw his entire glove.

Unlike the Dodgers, who didn’t steal at all, the Indians led the American League in stolen bases and baserunning efficiency, according to FanGraphs.

Two years ago in the American League wild-card game, in his role as the Royals’ first-base coach, Rusty Kuntz uncovered one of the sport’s oddities, an issue which could play a critical role in Game 1 of the World Series between the Cubs and the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday at Progressive Field: Lester cannot throw the baseball to first base.

Lester does not run from his weakness. The greater curiosity is why teams do not run on him.

In their Game 5 loss, the Dodgers did steal two bases against Lester. But mostly, Kuntz noticed how runners like Enrique Hernandez behaved in the first inning, taking sizable leads, hopping around, attempting to goad Lester into discomfort. Except when Lester delivered the ball to the plate, the runners were unwilling to gamble on the contents of the team’s scouting report.

It’s another stellar season for Kluber, as he put up an AL-leading ERA+ of 149 and a K/BB ratio of 3.98 in 215 innings. His FIP of 3.26 also paced the AL. Kluber’s made three postseason starts in his career, all in 2016, and he’s been excellent over those 18 1/3 innings: 0.98 ERA, 20 strikeouts. Also keep in mind that one of those starts came on short rest. In Game 1 against Chicago, he’ll be going on six days’ rest.

While the Cubs’ offense isn’t as weak against right-handers as the Indians’ offense is against lefties, they’re not as effective. Given the excellence of Lester and Kluber and the relative decline seen by the opposing offenses against pitchers of their handedness, runs may be hard to come by in Game 1.