Tyler Naquin’s Rookie of the Year Case

The 2015 Rookie of the Year race was one for the ages with Carlos Correa topping out Francisco Lindor in a close battle that saw Miguel Sano almost forgotten in third despite having a great season. At the same time, Kris Bryant blew away all competition, completely overshadowing great rookie campaigns by Noah Syndergaard, Joc Pederson, Addison Russell, Matt Duffy and Justin Bour.

This year, there are no clear cut obvious answers that are a head above everyone else, but there are still plenty of worthy candidates. Focusing exclusively on the American League, Naquin has an outside chance to come out on top of this group:

These are essentially the top five hitting and pitching candidates by my own selection and it’s pretty easy to ignore the bottom three pitchers and bottom two hitters listed.

Looking at the other five, we have a very interesting mix on the offensive side of a player who played extremely well over a short period, a player who played at a more league average level over the entire season and one that is in between on both levels. What Sanchez did for New York after coming up late in the season is truly monumental and can’t be over looked, even if he only played in 53 games. Despite the lack of playing time, he still lead all AL rookies in total WAR and home runs, tied with Mazara who played 92 more games.

Comparing Mazara and Sanchez individually, Mazara had just one more double, 25 more runs scored and 22 more RBI. In addition, Sanchez was great defensively and considering his contributions to his team in an area that had previously been lacking, he seems superior to Mazara. This leaves Sanchez and Naquin as the top two hitters.

Here, things aren’t as clear cut. While Sanchez did hit more home runs and play better defense, Naquin’s slash line is much closer to the catcher’s than Mazara’s as is his WAR while still having the advantage in total playing time. Even so, the fact that Sanchez was able to do so much in so little time should give him the edge. While Naquin did a little on the bases, he was caught stealing enough that this isn’t really an advantage and, while a center fielder should have a defensive advantage over a catcher, Naquin was one of the worst at his position while Sanchez was one of the best. It’s going to hurt Tribe fans, but Naquin is much less worthy of the Rookie of the Year than Lindor was last year and is likely going to finish behind Sanchez in voting.

This hasn’t even considered the pitchers, who are considerable. Michael Fulmer with Detroit got all the talk during the season as he looked to win the ERA title, only to have Cleveland snatch it away with a short start in his final appearance of the season as Aaron Sanchez actually did win. Devenski with Houston got far less press as his team was far from competing for a play-off spot for the majority of the season and he was further from qualifying for the ERA title. Despite this, he pitched an incredible 108.1 innings mostly in relief (five starts, 43 relief appearances). His K/9, BB/9, ERA and FIP were all significantly better than Fulmer’s and only his lack of innings kept him from surpassing him in fWAR.

Here we have another case where the player with less playing time is more deserving of the award than the one who was around all season and Indians fans should feel sympathetic for the situation as Lindor was hurt in the same way last year when compared to Correa. Given the results of last year’s vote, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fulmer take the award, but Devenski and Sanchez deserve serious consideration and should join him in the final three. If Naquin somehow sneaks into the top three, it will likely be instead of Devenski, but if I had a vote, it would go Sanchez, Devenski, Fulmer, Naquin, Mazara for top five.