The Indians rarely delve deep into the free agent market, but two of their 2016 pick-ups wound up being giant components of the club for the entire season in Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis. While these were both great deals where the players far outproduced their salaries, they were both one year deals and both players stand to make quite a bit more this off-season. The Indians have already made the decision not to make a qualifying offer to either player, but will likely continue with negotiations through the off-season. While Gavin Potter took look any possibilities with Napoli, we’ll take a look at Davis individually here.
To begin, the qualifying offer for 2017 is $17.2M, about $12M more than Davis’ salary of $5.25M in 2016. While he did have a truly incredible season, stealing an AL best 43 bases, teams simply don’t give huge contracts or long term deals to guys past 35. In addition, Davis (who recently turned 36), had a significant down turn at the end of the season that was likely due to his age.
Davis played more games in the 2016 regular season than he had since 2012 in Toronto and then went on to be a semi-regular in the play-offs for the first time since his only previous appearance with Detroit in 2014 (just three games). When counting all games, this was a career high for Davis just like it was a career high for Napoli, an extremely odd case when considering how long each has played.
Through July 5th in 2016, Davis had hit .275/.333/.450 with 22 steals in 25 attempts. Over his next 60 games to end the season the legs kept working, but his bat didn’t. He hit just .214/.267/.302 although he stole an incredible 21 bases in 24 attempts given the lack of times on base overall. This extended slump was increased in severity over the final month of the season as he batted just .161/.203/.214 from September 8th on in 20 games. In the post season, things only got worse as he went hitless in the ALDS and ALCS.
This is far from a rip on Davis, who was supposed to be a full time player only in April while Michael Brantley rehabbed and would have become a platoon bat once the All-Star returned. The problem was Brantley never really returned and Tyler Naquin had trouble defensively and against fast balls. With no other options, Terry Francona depended on Davis until he had pushed the veteran beyond his limits.
This is unlikely to be the case in 2017, however. Brantley is currently on schedule to actually play games next year and Naquin will be back and hopefully improved in his second season. With Brandon Guyer added at the trade deadline, the Indians have another right handed bat and Lonnie Chisenhall may have improved to the point that he can be more than a platoon bat. Abraham Almonte should also be back for an entire season without any worry of losing him for the post-season again. In addition, just like Naquin this year, the Indians will have a minor league option as first round pick Bradley Zimmer should be set to make his Major League debut. Late in the season, the speedy Greg Allen (currently playing alongside Zimmer in the Arizona Fall League) could also be an option.
That gives the Indians six MLB ready outfielders who are of good enough quality to start without even considering the fact that Yandy Diaz, Jose Ramirez and Giovanny Urshela will all be looking for playing time at third and the first two could wind up back in the outfield depending on the situation. While the DH will provide some flexibility, particularly if Napoli leaves through free agency, there are still too many internal options to really consider Davis at an increase in salary over this year.
The most conservative look possible would have Carlos Santana as full time first base, allowing Brantley to DH. Ramirez would start at third with Diaz as a utility man, replacing Michael Martinez. Chisenhall and Guyer could platoon in right with Almonte starting in center, Naquin as a bench bat and Zimmer in AAA. If this were the case, Davis could be retained to split time with Naquin in left/center, but it would have to be at a price no greater than this season’s and would again likely be planned for a short period. Nothing is going to keep Zimmer in AAA all season and once he’s up, he should be starting. If the Indians need a base stealing threat like Davis, a quick advancement of Allen would take care of that at a much cheaper cost as he’s already stolen 121 bases in three minor league seasons.
In the end, a reunion with Davis doesn’t really make sense. Like the Indians other successful one year free agent deals, Davis should seek a 2-3 year deal somewhere and get paid like he deserves. The Indians, on the other side, should move on and go with youth. Almonte was a huge boon for the Tribe once he returned from his suspension and with the improved play of Chisenhall and addition of Guyer, they should have a fairly strong outfield in 2016. With or without Brantley, there is likely to be little room for Davis next time around.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
