Are These Colorado Rockies For Real?

The Colorado Rockies walked off in extra innings yesterday afternoon behind a 4-hit day from Dexter Fowler, a home run from Troy Tulowitzki and a 9th inning, 2-run double from Carlos Gonzalez.  The Rockies (34-30) sit in third place in the NL West right now, a percentage point behind the Giants and 1.5 games back of the Diamondbacks.  They’ve gotten this far thanks to unbelievable performances out of the same big three players from yesterday’s win.  Max wrote this post claiming that Paul Goldschmidt might be quietly compiling an MVP season, but he could have just as easily done the same for Troy Tulowitzki or Carlos Gonzalez and altered the parameters a bit to make a case for Dexter Fowler’s inclusion in the MidSummer Classic.  We’ll take a look at what these three guys have got going for them through 64 games before asking if this team is for real.

First, Troy Tulowitzki.  I’ve written before about The Freak that is Tulo and Max wrote this in February.  A quote from Mr. Frankel: “Tulo is nearing an age where superstars differentiate themselves from stars. Maturity is often a predictor of success in that transformation, and Tulo is well stocked in that department. In 2013, watch out for Troy. I have a feeling he’ll come out with a vengeance.”  In 2013, Tulo is differentiating himself.  After last nights games, The Freak leads the world in the advanced metrics.  fWAR says he’s the best player in the Majors and his wOBA is the best in the NL by .32 points.  In case your a sucker for the more traditional stats, he’s also hitting .351 (2nd in the NL), with 16 home runs (3rd), 51 RBIs (2nd).  Oh yeah, and he’s their shortstop.  Just for kicks, fangraphs “Fld” stat, one that I’ve always taken as some measure for how good a player is at defense but for which I cannot find a definition, lists Tulo as the sixth best defender in the NL.  He’s quietly putting together an MVP season.

Carlos Gonzalez doesn’t get quite the publicity on our blog mostly because it is assumed that everyone knows the kind of player he is. He’s been a 20 home run, 20 stolen base outfielder for three years now and consistently hits close to .300.  That’s really good, but not MVP level.  How about leading the league in total bases, runs, and being second in the league in home runs?  That gets the people going.  He’s also added twelve steals and some great defense.  Car-go’s biggest problem?  He’s probably not even the best player on his own team and he may not be the best Car-go through the first 65 games of the year.  That honor could belong to the Brewers’ Carlos Gomez. (It’s a debate that would likely end in the Rockies’ outfielder on top, but the conversation would still be had.)

Then there’s Dexter Fowler, who impressed in April as one of my SPP leaders, but who has never compiled any offensive season worth shaking a stick at.  Though he hit .300 last year, it was with just 13 home runs and 12 steals.  This year, he’s again repeating as a .300 hitter (.304), but has already hit 10 homers and stolen 11 bags.  The increased home run rate turns him into more of a star (because chicks dig the long ball), but his slugging percentage is up just .32 points from last year’s campaign.  Fowler provides some of the best defense available in today’s game in center field and now that he’s added value while in the batters box, at age 27, Fowler is ready to be a major contributor to an offense that could be very good.

So these three guys have all been somewhere in the range of spectacular to very good, but can we really expect them to maintain this level of production?  In a word: Yes.

Whenever Tulo is healthy, he’s a freak.  He needs to stay healthy for them to have a shot.  CarGo’s down years leave him with 20-20 seasons and Dexter Fowler’s increased performance isn’t so much of an improvement over last year’s that sabermetricians will soon scream “regression to the mean!!” Still, I feel like we knew all that.

Are these Colorado Rockies for real?

It’s the question I keep asking myself.  These three guys are for real for real.  But, the Colorado Rockies?  They’re offense ranks third in the Majors in wOBA, which suggests that the offense to this point has been great.  If you’re more of a fan of runs to judge an entire offense: first in the NL in runs scored and tied for second in the Majors.

Their problem has always been pitching.  Sure, Juan Nicasio fired 5.2 hitless innings yesterday, but the Rockies still gave up 7 runs.  They’ve got the 17th best ERA in the majors (Number 10 in the NL).  Which, if I were a Rockies fan, would be welcome news.  That combination of good offense and average pitching has lead to a pythagorean win-loss of 36-28.  Such a record would put them in first place in the NL West.

So is this team for real?

If Car-go and Tulo stay healthy, continue to perform like the superstars they are, Dexter Fowler continues his epiphany and they figure out their starting pitching woes (Rockies starters currently sport a 4.53 ERA), then yes, this team is for real.  Their starting pitching woes are deep rooted though, and they’ve elected to start Jon Garland 12 different times this year.  Drew Pomeranz is just around the corner at Colorado Springs, but his 4.50 ERA in AAA doesn’t help the decision makers as they won’t benefit from a repeat of  his 4.93 ERA from last year.

Simply, this team is forreal if they can get better pitching (somehow) and the big three continue their impression of the basketball Big 3 model.  As the team is currently assembled and with some luck, they could be playoff bound.  I just wouldn’t bet on that.

-Sean Morash

Stat of the Day:  The original stat of the day was published in that original Troy Tulowitzki post I wrote in 2011.  The stat was a good one: The Atlanta Braves have gotten zero production out of the No. 9 spot (pitchers and pinch hitters) in the order. 0-54 with 24 strikeouts.  0-54 with 24 strikeouts.