It is now free agent season and Off The Bench is embarking to bring each team a preview of what to expect as open signing dawns on Tuesday. Each day, we’ll be posting a preview of a division and a final Bold Predictions post will follow, hopefully before any of the big pieces ink their deals. After missing my post on Sunday to figure out that I really hate all the delays and game pace of the NFL, our schedule has fallen a bit off track. Never fear, the endeavor will eventually culminate, be it with a bang or a fizzle. This is not intended to be a full offseason preview as the hot stove has yet to heat up and we have no real sense of the market. Names like David Price, Mark Trumbo, and Peter Bourjos will capture our attention in the coming months, but for now we’ll set the table for what each team might be looking for as free agency hits. Please note that all dollar amounts are in millions, and that MM and M also mean million. (So, for that matter, do ‘ml’ ‘milly’ ‘six-ohs’ and ‘big boy $s.’) Today, we tackle the AL Central.
Chicago White Sox: Available Budget: $30 Million
The White Sox opened the 2013 season with a $118 Million payroll and finished up one loss shy of the century club. That’s not a good ratio. After trading Alex Rios and Jake Peavy and Paul Konerko to either retire or come back in a much diminished role, the team has money to spend. They’ve kept their payroll at at least $96 milly since 2002 and I don’t predict 2014 to be any different. I may be the only one with that opinion.
They’ve already gone after Cuban slugger Jose Abreu to take the Paul Konerko role in the organization and inked him to a six-year, $68 million deal. They’ve got a glaring hole behind home plate as neither Tyler Flowers nor Josh Phegley can actually hit consistently. A reunion with AJ Pierzynski could be in order if Brian McCann signs with the Rangers. A call to Jarrod Saltalamacchia’s people will surely be made assuming someone in the organization knows how to spell his name (unlike me). Further, they’ll be in the market for a right handed pitcher. The top four guys in their rotation are southpaws. Other than Chris Sale, they appear to do the job with smoke and mirrors. Ubaldo Jimenez seems like a White Sox type sign and Ricky Nolasco could also be a prime overpay candidate. I think the White Sox have money to spend and will spend it on a surprise guy or two.
Cleveland Indians: Available Budget: $15 Million
The Indians payroll has fluctuated the last three years from as low as $49 to as high as $81 mill in 2013. Figuring that same $81 million ceiling gives the Indians the available budget listing from above. Off the books are the contracts of Chris Perez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brett Myers, and Mark Reynolds. The Indians opted to release Perez rather than pay him somewhere in the $9 MM range through arbitration. I think that was a really smart move considering Perez’ bumpy tenure as closer. This is an organization that won 92 games in 2013 and could be headed back to the playoffs with a smart offseason.
They’ve got a bunch of good young arms behind Justin Masterson, but another top-tier free agent starting pitcher could be a very nice addition. The rotation managed just 5.7 innings per start in 2013 (11th in the AL) and the organization may be looking for a steadying influence. However, there don’t appear to be any Mark Beurhle types around this offseason. Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, and Ricky Nolasco all make sense and I would not be surprised to see Ubaldo back with the Indians considering all they have invested in him to this point. They also have to figure out what to do with the resurgent Scott Kazmir. Another area of need is corner outfield/first base. Nick Swisher is best served in the outfield where his bat holds more value and Drew Stubbs again managed a .305 OBP across 500 ABs. I would love an addition of Nelson Cruz or Mike Morse, but again the post-Sizemore Indians will be wary of the health records. It should be an interesting offseason in Cleveland considering all the different players, health variables, and relatively low ‘cap space’ to consider.
Detroit Tigers: Available Budget: $10-15 Million
The Tigers have 107.8 big boi $’s committed to just 6 players in 2014. Figuring a healthy raise for Max Scherzer and that ratio escalates to somewhere in the $120/7 range. The bad news is that Rick Porcello, Austin Jackson, Alex Avila and Doug Fister all seem due arbitration raises as well. The good news is that all these guys are back and the roster that made it to the ALCS remains largely unchanged.
The Tigers biggest needs this offseason are to figure out their Max Scherzer situation and restructure their bullpen. Scherzer would be an easy sign if the Tigers weren’t already paying Justin Verlander $22 Million a year and Anibal Sanchez $15. Still, Scherzer enters 2014 as his last arbitration eligible year and should be back in Detroit for another go-round. As for the bullpen, Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel and Jose Veras are all free agents and the Tigers figure to replace them with similar type guys. The available budget figure listed above assumes that the Tigers think they’re a solid bullpen away from winning the big prize and will be willing to spend 10-15 mil to get it. Pursuing Cleveland’s Chris Perez to close games should be an option and Joaquin Benoit should return. Adding another sneaky good reliever from the underrated heap (Luis Ayala? Edward Mujica?) is a necessity.
Kansas City Royals: Available Budget: $13 Million
The Royals put together their first winning season since 2002 by cutting 145 runs off their runs allowed total from the previous year. They went from 10th in the AL in runs allowed to first, but key contributor Ervin Santana is a free agent, and Bruce Chen, who has pitched exceptionally for stretches, is also a free agent. GM Dayton Moore has said the payroll will remain at about the same $81 Million mark, but there’s still some maneuverability given that they have just $53 Million in guaranteed money on the books. Factoring in the arbitration guys makes for some interesting math. I’m sure the Royals would like to have Luke Hochevar return, but would prefer to not give him a raise from the $4.5 that he made in 2013. Eric Hosmer is arb-eligible and should bring in his first pretty penny.
The Royals need to figure out a way to bring Ervin Santana back and hope that their offense improves. Eric Hosmer hit well after May and the Royals went 64-46 after June 1. That winning percentage extrapolated across 162 games translates to 94 wins (more than the Tigers). I blasted the Justin Maxwell trade when it happened, but I may take that back now. If the Royals can not bring back Santana, all is not lost, but they will need to bring in someone talented. Teaming James Shields with Matt Garza again could be fun. I’ve read that second base is a position of need, but I’m not retracting on my Emilio Bonifacio love.
Minnesota Twins: Available Budget: $40 Million
The Twins had a payroll as high as $113 Million entering the 2011 season. They’ve got just $41 Million on the books heading into 2014 and 23 of that is going in Joe Mauer’s pocket. The Twins are rebuilding and don’t figure to be in on a bunch of these free agents. However, their rotation is a mess and they’re destined for another wasted year of Mauer’s prime. Mike Pelfrey is a free agent, and the Twins can almost certainly afford to keep him if they decide that he’s an important part of a quest to stay in fourth place. As of now, they need to be conscious of the impending Miguel Sano show and should look to trade Josh Willingham for a number of pieces that can help the team win in 2015, because 2014 seems like it will be a(nother) rebuilding year in Minnesota. There is, however, a lot to like with their young arms in the wings, and a Sano/Mauer lineup could be fun (if overall just average) in 2015. They’ve got money, but is spending it the best thing to do? Savings accounts are for smart people.
-Sean Morash
Stat of the Day: The QWERTY-keyboard layout was not designed to slow down typing speed. Of equal importance, ‘stewardesses’ is the longest word typed with only your left hand.
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