Summer League and Small Sample Sizes

By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)

With Nerlens Noel having another strong performance in yesterday’s Sixers summer league win over Brooklyn, expectations are running wild for the rookie throughout the team’s fan base. Through 3 games, Noel is now averaging 13.7 points on 52% shooting, 5.7 rebounds, 3.0 blocks, and 2.3 steals in just 25 minutes of action. Those numbers don’t even do justice to the visual appeal of how Noel’s game has looked, with his highlight-reel blocks and dunks, and the way he can seemingly cover the entire area inside the arc defensively by himself. So, even though 3 games is an incredibly small sample size, I thought it wouldn’t hurt to get a little carried away with ourselves and take a look at how past rookie of the year winners have fared in summer league action.

As you can see in the chart above, none of the past winners really struggled too much in summer league play. People always love to point to Kevin Durant’s 7-21 shooting performance, but it was one game, and he also went 14-15 from the foul line so he was obviously the dominant figure in that contest. Michael Carter-Williams struggled to shoot the ball, but that was really reflective of his rookie season, where he shot just 40.5% from the field and 26.4% from three. His counting stats piled up in a way that laid the groundwork for his eventual path to the ROY award. The person who had the worst performance was likely Derrick Rose, who shot just 29.4%, albeit in just 2 games of action. Remember though, Rose has put a lot of work into his outside shooting over the years to become a passable threat from distance; he shot just 22.2% from three his rookie season.

Much of the list consists of players who basically dominated the field, as you would hope lottery picks would against competition composed of mainly second round picks and undrafted free agents. Damian Lillard put up some ridiculous numbers that would foreshadow his meteoric rise his rookie season with the Blazers, and Blake Griffin looked like the double-double machine he would grow to be, even after going on to miss an entire year due to injury before his NBA career could really get started.

Certainly this list only looks at those players who went on to succeed in the NBA, as there have been countless players who have put up great performances in Summer League action only to have nondescript careers in the NBA if any at all. However, like the players on this list, Noel’s play really jumps out at you; he has the type of athleticism, natural gifts, etc., that really separate him from the pack and make you believe he will be something special. It’s only been 3 games, but early signs point to him assuming a place among those past rookie of the year winners. After all, it’s July. This is the time to hope for a brighter tomorrow.