By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)
As you might have heard, the NBA draft lottery takes place at approximately 8:00 pm Tuesday night. It’s not really a big deal or anything, only basically the entire fate of the Philadelphia 76ers franchise hangs in the balance of what ping pong are pulled in the back room of the New York Hilton Midtown.
Factoring in the Sacramento swap, the Sixers have a 26.9% chance at the first overall pick and a 49.5% chance at a top-2 pick and one of the presumed true game-changers in this draft, Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram. While that’s far and away the most important facet of what takes place Tuesday night, the Sixers also have a 44.2% of receiving the Lakers pick this year, as that is the combined chance of that selection falling to 4 or 5 and losing its top-3 protection.
Clearly, there are more moving parts going on for the Sixers than people are going to be able to keep track of on the fly. To assist in the lottery viewing process, I’ve broken down a step-by-step guide to what cards Sixers fans should want to see as we work our way towards the top of the draft.
Below is the order a team’s card will be shown barring that team moving up into the top-three, and the percentage of that jump occurring (so the percentage we won’t see the card in this particular order).
Stick to the Script
Hopefully, these long shots stay exactly where they are. Although the Sixers would need a couple teams to jump the Lakers in order to receive that pick, they don’t want to be jumped out of a top-two pick themselves. Better to hope for the status quo to hold with this group.
Chicago – 1.8%
Phoenix (from Washington) – 2.2%
Utah – 2.5%
Orlando – 2.9%
Toronto (from Denver) – 6.8%
Major Inflection Point
The Sacramento pick is key, as a best case scenario has the Kings move into the top-two to bump the Lakers down. Unlike other teams moving up, Sacramento would not hurt the Sixers at all, because if the Kings finish above the Sixers, they simply swap positions. Ideally, this spot passes without seeing the Kings logo pop up.
Sacramento – 6.8%
Update: If the Sacramento pick moves into the top three and ahead of Philadelphia, the logo that gets shown will be the team actually picking at that slot. So if it shows the Kings logo, it will say (from Sixers) underneath and the Kings will be selecting in that spot, while the Sixers logo will show up after with (from Kings) underneath. Another wrinkle that could be important to remember.
Tentative Holding Patterns
In all likelihood, nothing will have happened yet, as this is the point where the odds begin jumping up significantly. If a team or two already moved up, Sixers fans do not want any more teams to be skipped at this point. However, if things have gone to form up until now, it’s not the worst thing for somebody here to move up and push LA down. Most crucially, we just have to hope they don’t push the Sixers down below the #2 pick.
Denver (from New York) – 15.0%
New Orleans – 21.5%
Minnesota – 29.1%
Phoenix – 37.8%
Boston (from Brooklyn) – 46.9%
Moment of Clarity
If three teams have jumped up already, then the #5 pick will show “Philadelphia (from Los Angeles)” on the card and the Sixers will pick 4th and 5th (unless Sacramento was one of the teams in the top-three). If less than three clubs moved up, the 4th pick will be the moment of truth. If it says “Philadelphia (from Los Angeles)”, that’s the best case scenario, meaning the Sixers received the best possible value on the Lakers pick. On the other hand, if the 4th pick only has the Philadelphia logo without mentioning Los Angeles, that’s the nightmare scenario where the Sixers only came away from this draft with the 4th overall pick. In that scenario, weep for the future.
Los Angeles – 55.8%
Final Judgment
If the Sixers escape the 4th overall pick, the fan base will breathe a collective sign of relief heading into the commercial break before the top three are announced. Sadly, the post-commercial break has been very unlucky for Philadelphia in recent years, as twice they’ve had the elation of hoping for the first overall pick, only to end up selecting third. If that happens again, it might rank among the most heart-breaking moments in 76ers history, as the drop-off between Simmons/Ingram and the field is incredibly steep.
The Sixers need a top-two pick. Whether it’s through simple chance or a back-office deal between the league and ownership as a result of having brought Jerry Colangelo on board, I don’t care. It needs to happen. Just let us see that smile on Brett Brown’s face; we’ve earned it.
Philadelphia – 64.3% (49.5% top two; 26.9% first overall)
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