Predictions are the best. You only remember the few ones you get right. Everyone else remembers only the ones you get wrong. The off-season is always too long–like some of my writing–and the regular season is always too short–like a Chuck Hayes free throw. But that won’t stop me from stepping up to the line and expecting to nail these 2016-2017 NBA season predictions. Some of these are serious and others not so much, but they will most certainly all be clean swishes.
Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland Cavaliers, 59-23: No competition, will coast in the L-eastern Conference.
2. Boston Celtics, 53-29: Al Horford makes a difference, adds five more wins from last season.
3. Toronto Raptors, 50-32: Slight over-achievement last season. Already facing Sullinger injury.
4. Atlanta Hawks, 48-34: A befuddling new roster, Coach Bud will get them back to 48 wins.
5. Indiana Pacers, 47-35: Expect big things from Paul George, Jeff Teague, and Myles Turner.
6. Detriot Pistons, 46-36: Baby steps of improvement with roster stability and Van Gundy magic.
7. Charlotte Hornets, 45-37: Losing Lin and Jefferson hurts, but Kemba will keep them competitive.
8. Chicago Bulls, 42-40: Dwyane Wade will not allow himself to miss the playoffs or finish under .500.
9. New York Knicks, 41-41: .500 sounds right for this mediocre roster. Build around the Zinger please.
10. Washington Wizards, 40-42: If they stay healthy they may do a bit better, but I don’t see it.
11. Milwaukee Bucks, 34-48: The Bucks are stuck in mediocrity. The Greak Freak may get frustrated.
12. Miami Heat, 33-49: They will start with high hopes before eventually tanking.
13. Orlando Magic, 33-49: There will be very little Magic in Orlando for this confused team.
14. Philadelphia 76ers, 20-62: Record is irrelevant. Joel “The Process” Embiid is relevant. Will they trade a big?
15. Brooklyn Nets, 15-67: Tanking only helps the Celtics but a Brook-Lin duo can only do so much. Times on Atlantic Ave. may get as rough as they were at Barclays during the 2008 financial crisis.
Western Conference
1. Golden State Warriors, 75-7: Let’s not overthink this one. Durant for Bogut is an even swap, and Zaza for Barnes adds 2 wins on last season’s record.
2. Los Angeles Clippers, 63-19: The Clippers have continuity and the Point God is driven.
3. San Antonio Spurs, 62-20: Offense might be better but defense is probably worse. Pop = 60+ wins
4. Houston Rockets. 47-35: A happy Harden in a D’Antoni offense will be fun. Fear the Beard.
5. Portland Trailblazers, 46-36: Everyone sleeps on the Oregonians, but Lillard wants that MVP trophy. When Dame is dropping dimes and triples, even the Warriors can feel it.
6. Utah Jazz, 44-38: The darling picks of this year. They better get over .500 for Coach Snyder’s sake.
7. Memphis Grizzlies, 44-38: The ceiling for this team is quite high if they can stay healthy and Marc keeps draining treys.
8. Dallas Mavericks, 42-40: Old man Dirk still has a few fade-aways left in the tank. Carlisle may have a Curry ace in his deck too.
9. Oklahoma City Thunder, 41-41: Russ can put up triple doubles with ease, but he can’t do it all alone.
10. Minnesota Timberwolves, 36-46: Brightest future outside the Bay area? Give it one more year.
11. Denver Nuggets, 32-50: Underrated League Pass team but not enough to enter playoff conversation.
12. New Orleans Pelicans, 30-52: Complimentary pieces just aren’t there for Davis even in good health.
13. Sacramento Kings, 24-58: This team is even more confused than the Orlando Magic. Oh, Vlade.
14. Los Angeles Lakers, 20-62: Walton will let the young Lakers have fun without Kobe distractions.
15. Phoenix Suns, 18-64: Like the guard trio and Chriss has major upside–but they need to make moves.
MVP
1. Kevin Durant: It’s a lock. Will he shoot 60 percent? As happy as he is attending Kanye shows in the Bay, a focused Servant on a mission to win his first title and silence all the critics is a gift to the sport.
2. Stephen Curry: Could three-peat but I think Chef will let KD be the entree and he will be the dessert. We all know the story. Bla Bla Blah. 73-9 and no championship? 3-1 blown lead? Last year is old news. Steph is mad now. Expect him to break his own three-point record yet again.
3. James Harden: D’Antoni will work his magic on Harden’s counting stats, but this team isn’t winning enough games for him to become an MVP like prime Nash.
4. Kawhi Leonard: The NBA hipster pick, he does all the little things on both ends of the floor.
5. Chris Paul: Honestly he could be MVP every season if the award was determined by how valuable a player is to HIS team. The Clippers go where Point God takes them.
6. Lebron James: The MVP of the Finals, but the regular season is an extended recess for The King.
7. Anthony Davis: If he plays all 82 games, he would be top-five even if his team misses the playoffs.
8. Damian Lillard: Drops an album before the season, drops dimes for State Farm ads. In real life he is the best player in the NBA nobody talks about. Also in my mind the most clutch player in the league.
9. Russell Westbrook: Yes, I have him this low. Thunder will be happy to go .500, Russ will put up triple doubles, but efficiency will be a problem.
10. Karl Towns: He is THAT good, but his team is still one year away from completely breaking out.
Defensive Player of the Year
1. Kawhi Leonard: If Gary Payton was The Glove, Kawhi Leonard is The Claw? His hands snatch any moving object in sight and his role is ever-expanding. As the face of the franchise now that Duncan is done, the Spurs should take a step back on defense, but the light will shine brighter on Kawhi’s incredible contributions. There should be no voter fatigue–hand Kawhi the trophy now and call it a three-peat.
2. Anthony Davis: When healthy, Davis is a dynamic force. This is an optimistic choice, but if he can play 65+ games this season his contributions will both pass the eye test and the stats test. He can fill up a defensive stat sheet like few others of his generation. Expect the identity of the Pelicans to be more defensive this season with the additions of Solomon Hill and Terrence Jones. If the Pelicans become a top-notch defensive team, Davis will deservedly get most of the credit.
3. Kevin Durant: People forget that Kevin Durant plays some of the best defense in the NBA when he wants to. I think this whole season Kevin Durant will want to exert himself on the league and silence the skeptics of his decision to join the Warriors. His intensity, joy, and contributions on both ends of the floor are what will contribute to his MVP candidacy. Remember this is a guy that looked like a DPOY in the Western Conference Finals last year and had stretches earlier in his career where he limited Kobe in the playoffs in key situations.
4. Draymond Green: His role on offense will be significantly diminished this season. His role on defense will be unchanged. That means he still might be the most important player for the Warriors, at least on one end of the floor. Considering his tumultuous postseason and off-season, I expect some backlash in voting–as he has definitely lost some goodwill.
5. Paul Millsap: Millsap should be top-five in voting. He probably won’t be. Voters really fancy the big men that protect the rim and accumulate major block totals. Whiteside was third in voting last year. DeAndre Jordon will be high on the list this year especially if the Clippers get the second seed. Drummond and Gobert will get votes. But none of them are quite as deserving as Millsap, who provides some shot blocking but contributes all over the floor–especially being able to extend to the 3-pt line and play man to man defense versus all five positions. The Hawks were the best defensive team in the league for the second half of last season, due in part to Coach Bud’s defensive schemes. However, none of those core concepts work without Paul’s versatility.
Rookie of the Year
1. Joel Embiid: The key will be his health. The hype is real and even in limited minutes it is clear that the ceiling for Jo Jo is much higher than for any other rookie in this class, let alone the whole league itself. Expect high usage and a development curve, but he will score, rebound, and block shots. The stats will be visible to everyone, but those paying attention will witness the intangibles.
2. Jamal Murray: It’s a deep rotation and Jamal is young, but you wouldn’t know it watching him in preseason. There will be bumps in the road, but he is composed and comfortable on the court playing both PG and SG with positive results. The Gary Harris injury may give him a real opportunity to shine early on.
3. Buddy Hield: Preseason results have been mixed–and he has already lost his starting position. Hield is a four-year NCAA starter and his shooting will be essential with Davis on the court. Expect some big scoring nights once he gets his swagger back.
4. Dario Saric: It’s a shame that Ben Simmons is injured for most if not all of the season, but it gives us an opportunity to see what Saric can bring to the table. Expect him to shine as a ball handler and jack of all trades. Triple doubles are not out of the question, though his success will depend on improved shooting consistency and defensive development. As with all the other rookies, there will be some cold nights.
5. Brandon Ingram: Expect a similar rookie season trajectory as his freshman season at Duke. A slow start followed by a very impressive second half to the season. On talent alone, he should be second or third on this list.
6. Kris Dunn: Obviously if Rubio gets traded Dunn will have a good shot at the award. I’m not sure if coach Thibs is ready to give Dunn control, so expect an up and down season. Nevertheless, he will have opportunities to show what he can do on both ends of the floor.
7. Patrick McCaw: It is unfair that the Warriors got Kevin Durant. It is unfair that the Warriors drafted Patrick McCaw. Actually, never mind–it is totally fair. Luck is the residue of design. Joe Lacob jokes aside, the organization has struck gold yet again. As if Bob Myers hadn’t already sealed the executive of the year award with the Durant signing.
Sixth Man of the Year aka the Silliest Award to Predict
1. Brandon Knight. This assumes Bledsoe and Booker start all season and stay healthy and none of the three backcourt mates get traded. If Eric Gordon weren’t named a starter after Beverley’s injury in Houston, he would have been my top pick for the award.
2. J.R. Smith. This assumes he doesn’t play the whole season shirtless.
3. Jamal Crawford. This assumes nothing. He will score a lot off the bench and voters like that for this award. That’s why he won it last year.
4. Andre Iguodala. This assumes voting isn’t biased and people realize how good Iggy is in his current role. He should be atop this list, and will be on hipster lists until Pat McCaw steals some of his minutes.
5. Enes Kanter. This assumes Steven Adams and Baby Sabonis start. However, Kanter will outscore both of them combined coming off the bench. That defense though–is a whole other story.
6. Will Barton. Barton was Denver’s most productive wing player last season and should be again this year.
17 Random thoughts
1. Kevin Durant will approach 55/45/90, win MVP, top-five DPOY, Finals MVP. A man on a mission.
2. Steph Curry will approach 55/45/90. He might be mad now, but life will be easier with KD around instead of Harrison Barnes bricking open 3’s.
3. Klay Thompson will approach 50/45/90. Open shots for the third option? Swish.
4. Draymond Green will kick zero players in the groin but still find a way to get ejected from two games. Also, his scoring will drop to 11 points per game.
5. Joel Embiid will become the most talked about player not named LeBron (or playing in Golden State this year). He will get a smooch from Rihanna when she is courtside.
6. The Rockets will be so much fun to watch if you like 140-130 score lines. Dwyane Wade will hit 80 3’s this season. Jamal Murray will posterize Timmy Mozgov. D’Angelo Russell will break LeBron’s ankles. Carmelo will play defense for the first 10 games and then pack it in. Jeremy Lin will go insane in Brooklyn. Get it? Lin? Insanity? Frank the Tank will hit 100 3’s in Charlotte. Okay, thats six predictions.
7. Clippers win more games than the Spurs. The Spurs won 14 more games than the Clippers last year. This is just a feeling, but the Spurs always win 60 games, so the Clippers will have to win 61. Why did I make this prediction again?
8. James Harden will shave his beard. Just imagine!
9. Anthony Davis will play 80 games. I want this to happen. It probably won’t.
10. D’Angelo Russell and Devin Booker square off and things get very testy. Two of the best young breakout candidates out there. They will guard each other. They will talk trash. Who has more swag? Who wins in a fight? Probably Booker. But Russell might be better at basketball. Regardless, both of their teams aren’t winning games this season.
11. Chandler Parsons gets hurt again and spends more time picking up ladies in Memphis than picking up charge calls and dropping 3’s. Mike Conley and Marc Gasol will miss him because when Parsons plays the Grizzlies will actually be fun to watch. But he can always have fun off the court and post it on instagram.
12. Who will Blake Griffin punch this year? I have a feeling he gets traded. He will get traded. Wait, so how will Clippers win 61 again? They are better off without him.
13. Rudy Gay stays all season in Sacramento and nobody feels bad for him. Stop whining.
14. Boston Celtics. Oh boy. What do we make of this team. Bill Simmons has them winning the title this year. They will play the elite teams close and beat the teams they should beat. They will get the Nets top pick. Perhaps they will challenge the Cavs this year. I would love to see it. But, if they do play the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals I don’t see it going more than five games. Raptors fans are so angry right now. It’s okay guys, you ARE still the north!
15. If the Jazz start slow, Quinn Snyder gets fired. It may not even be his fault. They really should make the playoffs this season. The roster is such a tease, let’s see if they can put it all together. Gordon Hayward injury is already an uncomfortable premonition.
16. Michael Carter Williams got traded for the Lakers top-three protected pick. Then he got traded for Tony Snell. Are we sure he will still be in the NBA by the end of this season? Sam Hinkie died for all of our sins.
17. The Golden State Warriors will lose three games in the playoffs. The Golden State Warriors will win 75 games in the regular season. Don’t believe? When the 2006 Warriors went with the “We Believe” slogan they were predicting the future.
Last but not least, no season preview would be complete without a brief topical Love/Hate list as yet another Presidential Election debate season has made it abundantly clear the American public cannot resist impulsive bombastic rhetoric. I may not be Jalen & Jacoby, but I’ve still got to give the people what they want. For those that Skip to the end after my First Take no hard feelings, ESPN can’t drop me over my opinions. You just don’t know when something you take for granted comes back to The Land to put a ring on it.
Love League Pass. Are the Wolves going to develop in front of our eyes? How good are the Jazz? Will the Rockets essentially be an ABA team? When is the angry Russell Westbrook show coming to your city? Which rookie/sophomore will blow our minds the way Towns did last year? Can the new Bulls roster mesh? Probably not. Are the Knicks any good? Nope. Will the Dwight homecoming actually work out? He always wears out his welcome after one season.
Hate the Eastern Conference. Seriously, can we swap some teams in the conferences already? There is absolutely no legitimate playoff competition for the Cavs unless they completely fall apart due to injury. The Sixers are coming, the Sixers are coming, but not this year, or the next. Patience is a virtue, but I’ve been patient for conference balance for more than a decade and it still has not improved.
Love the new generation of young stars: Towns, Embiid, Russell, Booker, Giannis, Jokic, Turner, Wiggins, Schröder..it is always interesting to see the youth develop. Not a shabby group of players entering their primes either considering the likes of Curry, Lillard, Davis, Kawhi, and Westbrook.
Hate the Westbrook for MVP talk. Russell will be extraordinarily entertaining this season, even for his hefty standards–but the Thunder won’t win enough games, and he won’t be efficient enough. Triple doubles do look pretty on a boxscore though.
Love Kevin Love, but how long will the good vibrations last before LeBron starts sub-tweeting him again?
Hate injuries. The Bucks already have to face the reality of a season without Khris Middleton. The Bosh saga continues to become more and more depressing.
Love Analytics. For those that choose to rely solely on the eye test and refuse to use brain cells for critical thinking, there is always bird-watching.
Hate the 1-and-done rule. The United States at its core operates under strong capitalistic principles, but for the purposes of those talented with the basketball gift, they have to wait one full year to earn what they are worth.
Love that the CBA should be agreed upon soon. Work stoppages are the worst.
Hate preseason. It’s too long and such a tease. I want to see games that matter already.
Love BASKETBALL. Love Opening day. Love the regular season. Love the trade deadline. Love the playoffs. Love the joy on players and fans faces alike when basketball is being played the right way. Sport is entertainment, but it becomes art when it takes us to a happy place.
Hate the word Hate. I can’t actually really hate anything that involves 10 players on a hardwood floor with a leather ball and two hoops.
Let’s get this season started already!
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