Gameday! Who would have thought at 0-3 we’d be sitting here with a chance to go over .500? Yet here we are, in the thick of the playoff race, rooting for the Saints to get one step closer to the promised land. It won’t be easy, though, because the Saints have to face the defending Super Bowl champions. Granted, we remember what it’s like to carry that title as fans and how hard it was in 2010 to play with a target on your back. The Broncos are feeling that now with a 6-3 record that’s only good enough for 3rd place in the NFC West. The Broncos are not the team they were last year, they’re banged up, and the Raiders matchup last week exposed some flaws. Still, they have plenty of elite talent on this team that helped them win a Super Bowl just 9 months ago. Below are the things I’m looking for:
1. Containing DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller, likely without Terron Armstead.
The Broncos pass rush is terrifying. Miller is probably the best pass rusher in the league and he already has 9.5 sacks this season. Ware is coming back from injury and he’s missed some time, but his 2 sacks would put him up at the top of the Saints sack list anyway. Derek Wolfe will miss this game, at least, which is fortunate because he has 4.5 sacks of his own. Shane Ray also has 4 sacks this season. Meanwhile, the Saints likely won’t have Terron Armstead, their best offensive lineman and edge blocker. As much as I think Zach Strief’s praise this season is completely deserved, him trying to keep up with an elite edge speedster like Miller is terrifying. The Saints will have a plan, of course, and it will involve screens, chips, extra blockers and short passes. That said, there will be times where the offensive line has to man up, without Armstead, and buy Brees enough time to get the ball out. I will be watching intently how they fare. My expectation in these “man up” situations is that there will be a major advantage to the Broncos and they will make the most of it.
2. #1 passing offense versus the #1 passing defense.
On the heels of this pass rush discussion is the reality that the Saints are the #1 passing offense in the NFL, going up against the #1 passing defense in the NFL. This is as big time of a matchup as there is. The Broncos benefit from Armstead being out but the Saints benefit from Aqib Talib and Wolfe being out. If there’s anything on paper that has “clash of titans” potential, it’s when the Saints throw the ball. If you’re ever going to have this matchup, having it in New Orleans under a controlled climate setting with no crowd noise (when the Saints have the ball) is definitely ideal. It promises nothing in terms of success but certainly it would be much more difficult in Denver with crowd noise. I’m looking forward to seeing if these Saints receivers and Brees can get over 300 yards passing against such a stingy secondary.
3. Third straight 100 yard rusher for the Saints?
Honestly, the 49ers run defense is so bad that almost any NFL back could get 100 yards rushing on them. Ingram played fantastic, but let’s be honest – the 49ers are bad. Much more impressive was Hightower’s rushing performance against the Seahawks which went over the century mark as well. As good as the Broncos are against the pass, though, they’re 29th against the run and they don’t have Wolfe who is their best run defender in the front. The Broncos also give up 4.4 yards per carry which is 22nd in the NFL. Most recently the Raiders rushed for 218 yards at a 5.1 clip with Latavius Murray getting 114 of those. With the recent form of Ingram and Hightower, I’m hopeful they can get something going on the ground and it will lead to another 100 yard rushing performance for the 3rd straight game. And let’s be honest – when you look at #s 1 and 2 on this list, running the football well is going to slow down any pass rush and it’s going to give the passing offense more manageable down/distance to work with. It all goes hand in hand. Run the football well and life gets A LOT easier for the Saints offense.
4. Ellerbe, Sterling Moore, Breaux and Rankins are look to play. Do they look less rusty in game 2 back?
Ellerbe didn’t play last week, but having Moore, Breaux and Rankins back didn’t really help the Saints play great defensively. There’s no doubt those four guys are a huge infusion of talent compared to the guys playing in their place, though. I expect Breaux, Moore and Rankins to have their snap count and reps increase from week 1 to week 2. I’m less certain of what to expect from Ellerbe, but having these guys on the field has to mean improvement on the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos are poor on offense, too, which helps. They’re 24th passing, 23rd rushing and they’re missing their starting running back. Fair to say that the Saints defense, at home, SHOULD be able to have a decent showing – especially when you consider some of these guys they’re getting back. Hoping to see some improvement and help from these new bodies.
5. Can special teams coverage not be a disaster?
The Saints signed a couple guys this week (Sam Barrington and Shiloh Keo) that should help them on special teams. Something had to be done after that wasteland last Sunday. The 49ers routinely ran kickoff returns past the 35. Two plays later it seemed like they were inside the Saints’ 40. The defense is struggling enough, the kicking game can’t put them in disastrous conditions to start this consistently. I’m hoping the signings combined with emphasis in practice this week make a difference. It can’t be much worse.
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