Each week last NFL season, whether you liked it or not, I brought you my computerized NFL power rankings. I think last year’s system that I came up with would have been good in normal circumstances, but the NFL threw me a few curveballs. First, we had a 16-0 regular season team, but they played in a division so awful (and strength of division counted for more than it should have) that they spent most of the season 2nd in the power ranks behind the Colts (who were in a very strong division). Then, hoping that the Super Bowl champ would at least pop up at the #1 spot to end the season, the Giants shocked the world by beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl (who had finally made it to #1 by that point). The Giants wound up finishing in 3rd, which isn’t bad for a team that only finished the season 10-6.
This year, I made some tweaks and I have no idea how they will work out, but basically it goes like this, without giving away too much of my secret formula. Half of the weight is based on direct results on the field, meaning overall record and momentum (recent record), and the other half of the weight is based on categories that help to explain that record: strength of schedule, strength of division, points scored average, points allowed average, and turnover ratio.
After the first week of the season, and with an impressive win, the Philadelphia Eagles hold a commanding lead on the #1 spot in my power rankings. They were also helped by my momentum rating, which for a few weeks will dip into last season, where they finished strong. I’m not sure if much else can be interpreted from the rankings other than some teams that won big are near the top, and it could be a long year for the NFC West. Here are the ranks:
1. Eagles – 86.13
2. Giants – 76.45
3. Bears – 75.16
4. Bills – 73.06
5. Panthers – 72.42
6. Patriots – 72.42
7. Falcons – 71.94
8. Packers – 71.29
9. Cowboys – 70.65
10. Steelers – 70.16
11. Jets – 69.35
12. Cardinals – 69.19
13. Saints – 68.39
14. Titans – 68.23
15. Broncos – 66.13
16. Ravens – 65.65
17. Redskins – 45.81
18. Bengals – 39.52
19. Dolphins – 39.19
20. Browns – 37.90
21. Chargers – 36.13
22. Buccaneers – 35.48
23. Vikings – 31.61
24. Lions – 30.65
25. Chiefs – 27.10
26. Jaguars – 26.29
27. Texans – 26.13
28. 49ers – 26.13
29. Colts – 22.42
30. Seahawks – 18.87
31. Rams – 17.10
32. Raiders – 16.45
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