There hasn’t been all that much parity in the NFL this year. You have the really good teams, which always seem to find a way to win, and the really bad teams, which always seem to find a way to lose. This week, the top 6 teams from last week, the Colts, Saints, Chargers, Packers, Vikings, and Eagles, all won again, some clinching playoff spots. All 6 remain exactly the same rank. You may have noticed last week that the Packers slipped by the Vikings, and this week, they are still ahead by 0.01 points. How can this be? Since these ranks are a mixture of how good a team has been all season and how good a team has been recently, the Packers 5 game win streak helps to overcome the Vikings’ better record. Also, the Packers have had a slightly tougher schedule and both teams are almost identical in the 3 main rankings used (Offense, Defense, and turnovers).
On the bottom side of the things, the Browns’ win over the Steelers projected them out of last all the way to 29th, dropping the Lions, Bucs, and Rams down a spot. The Redskins’ win over the Raiders leapfrogged Oakland in the ranks, but Kansas City’s loss dropped them back into the bottom 5.
This week, the big gainer was the Jets, who jumped 8 spots all the way to #8 and are now quietly back in the playoff race again. The big losers were the Cardinals, who got absolutely embarrassed in San Francisco last night, dropping 9 spots. Luckily for the Cards, it is almost impossible for them to not win the NFC West at this point, despite the Niners being ranked 3 spots above them now in the ranks. In fact, the biggest reason why the 49ers are ahead of the Cardinals in these ranks is exactly what cost the Cardinals the game, a huge disparity in turnover ratio. The Niners have been good at holding onto the ball and getting turnovers this year, and the Cardinals have been extremely bad, and that’s why San Francisco has been a bad matchup for them.
So this late in the season, and with some recent developments, the projected playoff matchups don’t make much sense to post anymore. At this point of the season, the win/loss record actually becomes less important to these ranks as clearer trends are defined through momentum in recent games, strength of schedule, an ability to score and not be scored on, and turnovers define who a team is more heading into the playoffs. The power ranks really define who should probably win a game between any 2 teams, and I’m looking forward to the playoffs to see how accurate they are.
Here are the full ranks:
1. Colts – 88.89 – Even
2. Saints – 82.92 – Even
3. Chargers – 76.13 – Even
4. Packers – 75.71 – Even
5. Vikings – 75.70 – Even
6. Eagles – 74.78 – Even
7. Patriots – 63.75 – +4
8. Jets – 61.98 – +8
9. Ravens – 59.80 – +3
10. Bengals – 59.54 – -3
11. Cowboys – 58.99 – -1
12. Broncos – 58.53 – -3
13. Dolphins – 53.40 – +2
14. 49ers – 52.62 – +3
15. Titans – 52.32 – +3
16. Jaguars – 51.38 – -3
17. Cardinals – 51.01 – -9
18. Giants – 49.38 – -4
19. Texans – 48.30 – +3
20. Bills – 45.74 – +4
21. Falcons – 42.81 – -2
22. Seahawks – 42.10 – -2
23. Steelers – 37.31 – Even
24. Bears – 36.76 – +1
25. Panthers – 36.48 – -4
26. Redskins – 34.64 – +2
27. Raiders – 33.44 – Even
28. Chiefs – 29.94 – -2
29. Browns – 22.41 – +3
30. Lions – 22.31 – -1
31. Buccaneers – 15.42 – -1
32. Rams – 11.96 – -1
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