First the bad news. Joe Nathan has a tear in his elbow that would require Tommy John surgery. I say would, of course, because he is 35, which for an athlete is fairly old. Tommy John surgery takes a player out for a full season, and it’s fairly accepted that a player takes another season to come back, and by that time, he will be 37. For a pitcher, this is a horrible situation. He obviously cannot ever pitch for a contract again, because he won’t get the surgery and will forever be damaged goods. If he does get the surgery, he could come back too old and out of game shape to be an effective pitcher ever again.
Nathan is, in my opinion, one of the greatest examples of what a star athlete should be. Loyal, dedicated, hard working, friendly and charitable. He loves Minnesota, he loves the Twins and he works hard at being the best at what he does. Not only that, but he is a good pitcher to boot. It saddens me that we are rather suddenly faced with the prospect of the end of his career, and it is my sincere hope that if he is forced to retire (which he will do with more grace than SOME people I’m sure), he stays with the organization.
But now the good news. The Twins are going to be fine. Let me tell you about another team, the Philadelphia Phillies. Their closer, Brad Lidge had 31 saves, and they went to the World Series. Lidge had a 7.21 ERA. Most closers in the league have an ERA in the 2’s and are the best pitcher in the bullpen, as is generally the case with Nathan and the Twins. With Nathan, the Twins lost in the ALDS. With the dramatically inferior Lidge, the Phillies made the World Series. Saves are kind of a garbage stat. Essentially what it means is that your team wins a lot of close games, not that a team has an elite closer. Obviously, having an elite closer doesn’t make or break a team either.
The good news for the Twins is that they have a deep bullpen, at least going into the season. Believe it or not, Nathan should be fairly easy to replace. Two seasons ago, the Mets were a disaster late in games and missed the playoffs, while the Angels had K-Rod, Francisco Rodriguez, who set the save record for the season. Meanwhile, in Colorado, Brian Fuentes was in the process of losing his job as Rockies closer. Last season, K-Rod was with the Mets and Fuentes was with the Angels. The Mets were a disaster late in games and missed the playoffs, while Fuentes led the league in saves for the Angels. I guess what I’m saying is, it’s the team that matters, and not necessarily the closer.
I mean sure, you would like a decent reliever (at least) to fill the role, because that’s what a closer is (like I’ve already mentioned). Teams like the Pirates only have Matt Capps with his 5+ ERA as the closer, but then again, the Royals can use Joakim Soria. Neither team has any bullpen depth though, and it doesn’t matter. The Twins do, so you could put Matt Guerrier or Jose Mijares, both with sub 2.50 ERAs in the closer role, and I ebet the Twins wouldn’t miss a beat, except for the 66 innings you would get from Nathan. That’s the other thing. Nathan pitched 66 innings in 2009. If you assume that the season is 162 9 inning games (pretty close), that means he appeared in 4.5% of the innings this season. How big a role could he possibly have played in the success of the team? That’s just a little more than 7 GAMES. What I’m saying is, I hope the Twins feel the need to spend wildly on a closer.
All that said, watching Nathan interviewed, seeing the flecks of gray in his beard and hearing the waver in his voice, I can’t help but hope that Joe makes a speedy recovery so he can keep playing the game he loves.
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