Last year, I kicked off my NFL Predictions by mentioning the fact that on average, 6 of the previous year’s playoff teams return to the playoffs the following year, and 6 do not. I made my picks based on this last year, so it led to some crazy guesses. Well, guess what actually happened? 6 teams returned to the playoffs, and 6 did not. I didn’t do an excellent job picking which teams were staying/going/replacing, but I’m going with that theory again this year, with one catch. I’m going to go with 7 returning, 5 not returning, and here’s why: At first glance, it seems like the AFC South and NFC East are both deep enough to have 2 wild cards each, but the problem is they are playing against each other this year. Because of this, I think it will be almost impossible for 2 teams in both of those divisions to grab all of the wild card spots.
AFC East
1. Dolphins
2. Jets
3. Patriots
4. Bills
It seems like everyone just wants to hand the Jets the AFC East title this year after sneaking into playoffs last year and making it all the way to the AFC title game. They may have one of the best defenses in the league, but their offense concerns me, with a below average starting QB that may have a sophomore slump and legendary RB who is now kind of over the hill. The Patriots are still going to be a wonderful offensive team, but their defense is just another year older, and their dominant days seem to be over. So what does that leave us for the AFC East? Maybe the most balanced team in the division, the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins made a surprise playoff run in 2008 and seem to be poised to head back again this year with a more mature Chad Henne at QB (who seems much more capable than Sanchez at this point). The Dolphins D, however, could be their downfall, but there are much worse in the NFL. The Bills are trying to invent a time machine to go back to 1990.
AFC North
1. Ravens
2. Bengals
3. Steelers
4. Browns
The Ravens Defense is still one of the best in the NFL, and with youngsters Ray Rice and Joe Flacco leading the offense, they are much more well rounded than some Ravens teams in the past. The Bengals seemed like kind of a fluke to me last year, and are still extremely volatile on and off the field (tons of arrests, TO and Ochochinco). The Steelers are going to suffer without Big Ben for the first few games, and we’ll see how he plays when he returns. Remember how he was after the motorcycle accident? The Browns are hoping to get something going. At least in November Cleveland fans can turn their focus towards the Cavs and King Ja….oh nevermind.
AFC South
1. Colts – 1st Round Bye
2. Texans – Wild Card
3. Titans – Wild Card
4. Jaguars
Last year, I stupidly picked the Colts as one of the 6 teams from the previous year to miss the playoffs, and they went to the Super Bowl. I won’t make that mistake again this year. Even though they lost the Super Bowl, and Super Bowl losers tend to suck the following season, I think the Colts are a mature enough team that last year’s Super Bowl loss will only motivate them to make it back again this year and win it this time. The Texans are still a team on the rise but have yet to make the playoffs in their first 8 seasons. They have a powerful passing attack but suffered running the ball a little last year when Steve Slaton had a sophomore slump. This year they are going with Arian Foster, and they still have an improving defense led by Mario Williams. My pick for the Titans to get the last wild card is 100% dependent on Chris Johnson staying healthy all season. He basically is the Titans, and everyone else is just an accessory. The Titans were sleeping for the first 6 weeks or so last year but really turned things around. Teams that finish strong tend to do well the following year. The Jaguars are capable of being dangerous offensively, but aren’t all that great defensively. Unlike most last place teams, they’ll be pretty competitive this year, but the rest of the AFC South is just too talented.
AFC West
1. Chargers – Home Field
2. Raiders
3. Broncos
4. Chiefs
Last year I started my comments with, “Wow, what a bad division.” This year, I’m going to say, Wow, what a bad division. The Chargers are still the class of this division and will probably wind up with home field throughout the AFC playoff thanks to scheduling alone. Just think, they play 6 games against their own division, and 4 against the NFC West. They could get 10 easy wins just by beating up the bad West division teams. I think the Raiders have made some steps to improve themselves, bulking up their defense through the draft, signing a semi-competent QB, and not firing the entire coaching staff. They will probably only be 7-9 at best, but that’s good enough for 2nd in this division. In Denver, even though Kyle Orton is the best QB currently on their roster, the fans will be frothing at the mouth for Tim Tebow. As soon as the Broncos begin to struggle, its going to be Tebow’s team prematurely, and the Broncos will pay for it in the standings. The Chiefs are moving in the right direction but they have a long, long way to go to become relevant again.
NFC East
1. Cowboys – 1st Round Bye
2. Giants – Wild Card
3. Redskins
4. Eagles
The Cowboys finally seem to have some order, and I think they will have another great regular season just like last year, especially with their old nemesis, the Eagles, probably taking a step back this year. The Giants are coming off of a rough season, but I think they will rebound this year enough to make the playoffs again. Are they Super Bowl quality like in 2007? probably not. The Redskins were going to be my 2nd Wild Card pick until I realized that it might not be possible with the AFC South and NFC East beating up on each other all season, but I think they will fall just short. Mike Shanahan is going to try to prove to everyone he shouldn’t have been fired in Denver and Donovan McNabb should have a chip on his shoulder for being run out of Philly. The Eagles could definitely be a good team this year too, but I think they will have some trouble adjusting to Kevin Kolb and their defense is getting older.
NFC North
1. Packers
2. Vikings – Wild Card
3. Lions
4. Bears
I think Brett Favre has probably had it. He won’t completely suck, but I think he was seriously considering retiring this year….for real this time. The Vikings still have a strong defense and I think will be able to at least get a wild card spot even if Favre turns into an interception machine this year. The Packers have some defensive issues, but they are turning into one of the best offensive powerhouses in the NFL. They are going to be eager to get some revenge on Favre and the Vikings this year as Aaron Rodgers is turning into one of the NFL’s best QBs. The Lions are moving forward while I think the Bears are moving backwards. Maybe it doesn’t make much sense to pick the Lions for 3rd, but who cares? Neither will be good this year so I’ll go on a limb. The Bears defense is deteriorating and their offense hasn’t been anything to write home about my entire life.
NFC South
1. Saints – Home Field
2. Falcons
3. Pan
thers
4. Buccaneers
I know this is the goofy division where the last place team rebounds and wins the division title the following year, but if Tampa can find a way to win this thing I will be beyond stunned. The Saints are bringing most of their Super Bowl winning team back this year and I think will finally be the first team to repeat in this crazy division. The Falcons looked good early last year, but faded late. I think they will take a step back this year and be only a 7-9 or 8-8 team. The Panthers are a mess, but they have some good RBs. Getting rid of Jake Delhomme may have been a positive, but replacing him with Matt Moore probably neutralizes that. Tampa has a very strong chance of being the worst team in the NFL this year. John Gruden probably has no regrets over his firing.
NFC West
1. 49ers
2. Seahawks
3. Cardinals
4. Rams
The 49ers are ready to take back what is rightfully theirs, control of the NFC West. They will be far from a great team this year, but considering their competition, they seem like the obvious pick to win it this year. The Niners have one of the better defenses in the NFL and 3 big offensive weapons in Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree. Their only concern is going to be the play of Alex Smith, who has had a serious up and down career since being drafted #1 overall in 2005. If he can play this year, like he did late last year, the Niners should make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2002. One thing we need to keep in mind with Seattle is that Pete Carroll is not a good NFL coach. His personality is perfect for college, but it failed miserably in New England. Seattle has been beat up over the past few years, but now I feel that is mostly because of age instead of bad luck. The Cardinals are going to miss Kurt Warner immensely, especially based on the way Matt Leinart has played this preseason. They also lost a lot of key players on both sides of the ball, and are probably doomed to be the Cardinals again. The Rams are going to try out Sam Bradford from the start, but they have a lot of work to do to get back to being competitive again.
Playoffs
7 returning teams: Ravens, Colts, Chargers, Cowboys, Packers, Vikings, Saints
5 new teams: Dolphins, Texans, Titans, Giants, 49ers
5 teams getting the boot: Patriots, Jets, Bengals, Eagles, Cardinals
Wild Card Playoffs
Ravens over Titans
Texans over Dolphins
Giants over 49ers
Packers over Vikings (how awesome would this be?)
Divisional Playoffs
Colts over Ravens
Chargers over Texans
Packers over Cowboys
Saints over Giants
Conference Championships
Colts over Chargers
Packers over Saints
Super Bowl XLV
Colts over Packers
Awards
MVP – Phillip Rivers, Chargers
Coach of the Year – Tony Sparano, Dolphins
Offensive Rookie of the Year – C.J. Spiller, Bills
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Rolando McClain, Raiders
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