Smoke and Mirrors?

So the Twins have decided to show some sort of pulse over the past couple of weeks. It has led to many people even asking if, perhaps, the Twins might be turning it around. One thing that isn’t up for debate was that the offense has started to hit again. Part of that might be a weaker brand of hitting, but a larger part of it is the reintroduction of Justin Morneau to the lineup, and the addition of Brian Dozier. Players whose production was lagging have begun to step up.  To be honest, I was never worried about the offense, thought I was frustrated by their pace.

The most pressing concern has been the starting pitching. The bullpen has been much better this season than they were last year, from the long relief of guys like Anthony Swarzak to the closer Matt Capps. The starting rotation has been wholly atrocious, however. The best pitcher from the starting rotation at the beginning of the year still remaining is Carl Pavano. Everyone else has been sent down, released, moved to the bullpen, or mercifully injured. Naturally, the Twins have made some moves.

Two pitchers that thus far have been very good in the Twins renaissance are Scott Diamond and PJ Walters. Can this be expected to continue? Looking at Diamond (pictured above), he has definitely had some things working in his favor. For example, his strand rate is nearly 90%, which is very high. His batting average on balls in play against him is a little off his career pace, even in the minor leagues. But do you know what? Other than that,  this is what we might be able to expect from Diamond. Last year was a struggle both in Rochester and Minnesota for Diamond, but this year is in line with what he did in Atlanta. This probably is a bit better than what the Twins expected when they picked him in the Rule 5 draft, but, after a little bit of expected regression, it’s not that outlandish to think Diamond may remain a major contributor to the Twins rotation.

PJ Walters, on the other hand, IS smoke and mirrors, through and through. Consider this. BABIP is under .200. His strand rate is ONE HUNDRED PERCENT. There is not a pitcher in the world luckier than PJ Walters has been. I would like him and the Twins to continue on their positive trend, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. At least, not with Walters. If there is any good news, the number of home runs will come down and his strikeout rate is good.

The good news is, Carl Pavano has basically been the same pitcher he has been the past two years for the Twins, just extraordinarily UNlucky.Strikeouts, strand rate, BABIP, its all in line. This year and the past two years have approximately the same FIP. Combining Pavano and Diamond as the top two of the rotation will certainly help point the team in the right direction. Filling it in with average pitcher 3-5, like maybe Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak, Liam Hendriks or perhaps Cole Devries, who was just signed up, can be at least average and keep the team afloat.