Before I get started this week, I want to highlight not only the great article the staff contributed, but some of the other sites that cover all things Buffalo.
First up, Buffalo Rumblings. Jeff Hunter had a great piece breaking Tyrod down statistically to the rest of the league at this point in his starting QB Career. Not to be outdone, Tom Mitchell hit on some points I’ve also been ruminating on, which led to this opinion piece you’ll read below. Next, Buffalo News’ Jay Skurski gave me life with his scathing take on the premise of being a “bully” in the Ryan sense in the NFL. Finally, I want to point to Robyn Mundy of Billswire.com’s piece as a chaser to Jay’s “shot” talking about the intricacies of mental toughness as a must-read.
Now, onto my takes!
The Buffalo Tax
Joe and I had a delightful little tête-à-tête regarding Tyrod’s cap hit next year and the ramifications of playing a cap shell game to make the 18th highest paid QB in 2017 the 25th or so – and that got me to thinking about the cap, contracts and an elephant in the room that few want to talk about.
The Buffalo Tax.
While the laurels are appropriate for LeSean McCoy now, many folks don’t remember that moves were made to facilitate his eagerness to come to Buffalo. First, his contract was amended and he was given a nice bump in pay. As a result, Kyle Williams got extended, which allowed some of his money to look a bit lower on the salary cap. Finally, because of the aforementioned moves, the “not a poison pill” poison pill the Bills put into the Charles Clay contract had to be re-done, spreading the hit over the remaining years. In a vacuum, that means next to nothing, but if you add on a quarterback that they seem to be cooling on having an additional 3 years of job security, that is a powder keg of cap mis-management, coupled with the ugly face of getting premiere players in Buffalo.
Now, there are other cities and other sports that this comes into play. For instance, I am a fan of soccer and in France, Monaco is a team that as soon as you know they’re in for a player the cost trebles because they know Monaco will pay.
However, I cannot overstate this enough: while we as fans and those that currently work for the Bills have an appreciation for them, as a method of vocational success you have 16+ years of evidence leading a player to say, “Nah” when they call. If Taylor is removed as starter in 2017 and he goes elsewhere via free agency, simply digging up all the puff pieces One Bills Drive will muster for my boy Cardale won’t change the fact Jones will need as many weapons, if not more than Taylor did.
And he’d also need the Bills to be far better on defense (hello Rex! How’s that “better than Schwartz” deal going?).
They just paid a million dollars to Percy Harvin to play less than 20 plays. Because their cap guy thought that it’d be a good idea. If Revis were to be cut and decides he wants to play free safety for Buffalo, he’s going to want far more than he would if it were somewhere else.
With 32 million available, assuming they activate Taylor’s extension and 45.3 million give or take without him, you’ll have to sign 4(5 w/o Taylor) positions as starters, minimum. And even then, the Bills only have 36 contracts on the table for 2017. So they’re going to need to find 54 players next off-season to be training camp ready.
So when you talk about how much a player on the team is asking for or what an FA wants or gets to sign in Buffalo remember that they didn’t grow up with Jim and Thurman and Bruce and Andre and Cornelius – They’ve seen Losman and Donald Jones and Trent Edwards and Spencer at OLB and Corey White at CB/S/Bench.
That futility costs money to sign up for.
Whither Tyrod?
I’ve talked/typed til I’m blue in the face/fingers, so I’ll just keep this one brief – if Tyrod Taylor isn’t the starter in 2017 the Bills, fundamentally have to change the strategy around which they’ve determined they’ll win games. Right now, since the hiring of Rex Ryan it was a focus on having a killer defense and run game with a quarterback that didn’t turn the ball over.
That’s it. Listen to the press conferences and what Rex wanted the focus to be. Watch the games. If the return is now to the elusive, oft-not-definitively-described “franchise quarterback”, then that typically means most of the cap resources will be in the QB’s pocket and good drafting and FAs will fill in his cast.
I’m fine with that – but when you have to find quality other than Jordan Mills at right tackle, starters at 3 other positions (corner, wideout, safety) and perhaps upgrade at kicker, where’s the cap $ going to come from? Get a 20 million a year QB (in cap terms) and I don’t want to hear about the difficulties of building around him – be it Romo, an insanely aggressive offer to Cousins or some other character I’ve yet to see available.
It truly boggles my mind when folks talk about say Jim Kelly and the picks he’d throw early and turn it around late and not realize having hall of famers on both sides of the ball was as helpful as the gunslinger under center. Sacrilege I’m sure. And I’m not saying Taylor is anywhere near that either – I’m just saying he’s what they wanted.
Four Players to Watch in the Final Four
Here are the four players I’m keeping an eye on in the final “quarter” of the football season:
Cyrus Kouandjio – After a cup of coffee in spot duty as right tackle and as an extra lineman earlier in the season, Cyrus has been noticeably absent. In the next month, the imminent (hopeful) departure of Jordan Mills will open the door again for the former second round pick to assert himself and get a starting spot.
James Ihedigbo – First a vet signing to accommodate the injuries at the position, then a starter via default, Ihedigbo is a solid run defender that could be needed depth in 2017, given the injury status of Aaron Williams and the lack of depth behind Graham and Williams. If he were to share time with a rookie next year (In particular, his time in Detroit being marred by his benching comes to mind) – or be used in big nickel packages – can be determined in the final month.
Lorenzo Alexander – ‘Zo is in a weird spot. Now that the Bills are kinda/sorta demoting him to backup status, his focus will be on being a part time pass rusher and full-time special teamer as he was planned to do. However, those 10 sacks sitting by themselves should be enough of a resume filler to have earned more than spot starter the rest of the way. I’m interested in seeing where the coaching staff puts the priority – on giving Shaq Lawson more reps while continuing to allow Zo to feast on twists and stunts, or will he slowly become a near irrelevant figure save for the odd ST play?
Tight End Voltron (Gerald Christian, Nick O’Leary and Logan Thomas) – We already know, because of his salary and the ramifications of cutting him that come hell or high water Charles Clay is the starter. However, behind him is an interesting triumvirate – and I think the next month will be crucial for the first two in particular. Because of his being signed off a practice squad this late, Logan Thomas has to be on the roster for another 2 weeks if memory serves. Going into 2017 however, these three should get long looks as to how they fit in the scheme. O’Leary in particular has gone from being ‘guy that has a neat story about his Pop Pop’ to a contributor in the pass and run game. Christian did well in spots the last two week and I’m keen to see where they all go from here.
That’s it for this week. Be good to each other and enjoy (I hope) Sunday’s game!
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