I'm no football genius…but I do subscribe to the old Wee Willie Keeler truism from baseball, which states "hit 'em where they ain't"….
To me the Atlanta Falcons (6-0) are most vulnerable on defense when they line up in that hybrid look where they switch from a 4-3 look to a 3-4…that's when my own switch goes off in Michael Vick's helmet which screams "Tight End Release (Celek or Clay Harbor)!!!"
I know, it sounds simplistic. But the way Atlanta DC Mike Nolan has been charting it so far, the Falcons want to take away the deep patterns to the wideouts and occupy the check-downs to running backs… but are leaving opposing tight ends free to roam.
But let's go back to the beginning of this story.
The Falcons are in a win-now mode. GM Thomas Dimitroff fired his offensive and defensive coordinators from last season. New DC Mike Nolan comes to Atlanta with experience in both the 4-3 and 3-4 schemes. The Falcons have been playing the 4-3, but Nolan has been plugging in a good number of hybrid looks.
The Falcons are also without linebacker Curtis Lofton, who led the team in tackles in each of the last three seasons. Lofton signed a 5-year deal with New Orleans.The loss of Lofton has inspired Nolan to play a lot of nickel packages. Perhaps more accurately, Nolan was going to play a lot of nickel coverage anyway on third down—which made Lofton expendable as a 2-down linebacker.
The result is—the Falcons depend a whole lot on cornerbacks Asante Samuel, Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson to cover opposing receivers in their nickel package. Throw a gigantic target like Brent Celek into that mix, and I feel you have a tremendous potential advantage for the Eagles' passing game.
Maybe I'm getting way ahead of myself here. But I think the Mike Nolan "hybrid" defensive alignment is an invitation for the Eagles tight ends to have a realy big day if Vick gets the time to read them and find them.
Meanwhile, the biggest addition to the Falcons' offense is new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who came to Atlanta with three main strategic objectives: (1) Create a better vertical attack; (2) Use the screen pass more frequently; and (3) reduce Michael Turner's workload.
Koetter's newly added schemes have bolstered QB Matt Ryan's numbers dramatically.
Koetter has always been a deep-threat mastermind, and Atlanta has the best receiving corps in the league for that kind of mentality (see Brizer, circa 2012)…Roddy White and Julio Jones can stretch the field better than any other WR tandem in the league.
The Falcons rarely threw a screen pass under Mike Mularkey. Koetter has gone the opposite direction, getting the offensive line and the running backs into the screen game.
Head coach Mike Smith is Atlanta's 14th HC in team history. He has led the Falcons to 4 consecutive winning seasons, and his 49-21 regular season mark is the best winning percentage in franchise history. But getting over the playoff hump is the Falcons' goal in 2012. My personal hope is the Eagles catch Smith and his Falcons looking ahead to the playoffs just a tad early when they come to the Linc on Sunday.
It won't be easy. The Falcons defense historically has held tough when backed up into the red zone. That's another reason I'm banking heavily on the Eagles' ability to unleash their tight ends against the hybrid and nickel packages of the Falcons. If Atlanta has a soft spot in its defensive scheme, I think that is where you will find it.
For the record: AccuScore.com is forecasting a close game with the Atlanta Falcons winning 56% of 1,000 computer simulations, and the Philadelphia Eagles 44% of those simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Atlanta Falcons commit fewer turnovers in 45% of simulations and they go on to win 80% when they take care of the ball. The Philadelphia Eagles win 64% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Matt Ryan is averaging 278 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (35% chance) then he helps his team win 65% of the simulations. LeSean McCoy is averaging 80 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least 1 rushing TD (36% chance) then he helps his team win 64% of the simulations.
Sigh… I wish I'd had an Accuscore simulation to guide my life… If only it were that simple… imagine the possible backlash, though… You might win all your arguments…but lose all your friends.
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