I don’t know exactly how to begin an assessment of Doug Whaley. He might be the toughest person in the organization to evaluate. Should Whaley be fired as general manager after four years (technically just three offseasons) on the job? After all, the team has yet to make the playoffs under Whaley’s watch. We’re talking about Whaley’s head coach being fired for the second time in just three seasons.
But how much blame should Whaley get for Buffalo’s failures? Remember, it was Buddy Nix/Russ Brandon who hired Doug Marrone and it was Terry Pegula/Brandon who spearheaded the move to get Rex Ryan. It’s been well documented that Whaley was a fan of Hue Jackson’s, but ownership preferred Ryan. You might argue that Whaley hasn’t had the chance to hire his own head coach.
The easiest argument to make against Whaley is that this roster just isn’t good enough, a combination of subpar drafting and expensive contracts that have put the Bills up against the salary cap. It’s fine to be near the cap if you’re a perennial playoff team, but that excuse doesn’t fly when your organization is walking around with a scarlet “17” on its chest. However, Whaley has often had to correct for mistakes made by previous regimes. Yes, Whaley was here in 2013, but it was Nix who left his indelible mark on the organization by using his final first round draft pick as GM on EJ Manuel.
This is the type of mistake that takes years to recover from. Not only do you waste a first round draft pick, you’re also stuck playing EJ and waiting to see if he’ll stop being a complete train wreck. The 2013 and 2014 seasons were lost to this and Whaley had to go bring in Kyle Orton to be his quarterback. He then had to spend the 2015 offseason figuring out what the team could do at quarterback. He traded draft picks for Matt Cassel and signed career backup Tyrod Taylor, an unheralded signing at the time.
In short, because of a miss by a previous general manager, Whaley spent two offseasons trying to find help at the quarterback position. This includes the trade for Sammy Watkins, which was done in part to aid Manuel in his development (more like handing a jittery teenager the keys to a Lexus).
You could argue that Whaley has done the best he possibly can with what he has to work with. He was tasked with trying to make something work at the quarterback position. When Whaley gained full control of the roster, his quarterbacks were Manuel, Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel, and a concussed Kevin Kolb (just wanted to clarify that Kolb’s career-ending concussion came in a preseason game, not when he slipped and fell on a rubber mat).
When you miss on a starting quarterback early in the draft, you then basically have to try to rub two sticks together to get a fire going at the quarterback position.
At the same time, Whaley deserves some blame for trying to double down on the quarterback position during his time here. Realizing the Manuel needed some help, he decided to pull the trigger on the Watkins trade and parted with additional 1st and 4th round picks. You don’t need me to remind you that the Bills could have stayed at pick 9 and selected Odell Beckham. Still, that’s three draft assets (two first round picks) sunk into one player. And not a quarterback, mind you. Watkins has been damn good for the Bills, but his effectiveness has been limited by injuries and inconsistent quarterback play.
The kind of currency the Bills gave up for Watkins is not the kind you can afford when you’re a team with a crummy roster. When you’re a Bills team stuck between 6 and 9 (nice) wins every year, you should still be trying to maximize your assets to build depth on your roster. Whether or not this was Whaley’s call (Russ, is that you?) trading two firsts and a fourth for a wide receiver when you don’t have a quarterback is shortsighted. It goes against the long-term team-building philosophy the Bills should be embracing.
When Whaley finally hit on a quarterback in 2015 (Tyrod might not be great, but he’s a lot better than some of the hot garbage you see under center around the league), he backed himself into a tough situation again by handing Taylor a contract extension. The extension gave Taylor a raise for 2016, but also an option for the team to exercise an additional five years and $82.5 million. It’s a tough spot for the Bills because they have to make a decision this offseason whether or not they want to commit a $15.5 million bonus and an additional $30.75 million in guarantees to a quarterback who has been just okay. If the Bills decide they don’t want to do that (and reports say they don’t), they are back at square one with no quarterback and a roster that isn’t good enough to elevate a developing quarterback (say Cardale Jones).
If the Bills exercise Taylor’s option, they would essentially be handing him money equal to about the 15th best quarterback in the league. Tyrod’s play is not quite at that level, but he will be signed quickly on the open market by another QB-hungry team and the Bills will be left looking for a prom date once again. Nothing about this situation is optimal for a Bills team that still has a lot of work to do to the roster.
The roster is Whaley’s biggest problem. The Bills could decide to bring Tyrod back next year and expect average quarterback play again, but they would have to figure out a way to patch up the many holes on this roster. Off the top of my head, I think the Bills need help at wide receiver, offensive tackle, offensive guard, defensive line, linebacker, safety, cornerback, punter, and kicker. That’s not including a potential problem at quarterback. Folks, this is not good.
In trying to objectively evaluate Whaley, I’m crediting the 2014, 2015, and 2016 drafts to him. Previous drafts will be credited to Nix. The Bills have netted five players in those three drafts that are full-time starters (Watkins, Preston Brown, Ron Darby, John Miller, Adolphus Washington).
Now, you can’t put too much blame on Whaley for injuries to Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland, who probably would both be in the starting lineup right now if they started September healthy. And you also can’t expect too much of an impact from 2016 rookies past the first two or three rounds. With that said, the draft is supposed to be the lifeblood of your roster. Right now, Whaley’s picks are not contributing enough to the starting lineup.
The other problem is that the Bills have tried to put band aids over some of the holes on their roster with free agent signings and extensions for established stars (Dareus etc). The problem is that this has put the Bills up against the cap. The Bills management of the cap has been bizarre at times, and they have taken criticism around the league for it. That Charles Clay contract is looking more and more like an albatross. Dareus’ extension didn’t include any clauses to cover the team in case he found himself in violation of the league’s drug policy again. Instead, he keeps all his guarantees over the length of the contract. When you don’t draft well and you can’t manage the cap effectively, you have a big problem.
Still, the Bills’ roster is in a better place than it was when Whaley took over for Nix in 2013. The overall talent is better, with several stud players to help keep the team hovering around .500 (McCoy, Watkins, Incognito, Kyle, Marcell). Whaley has also found some bargains to help support his core (Zach Brown, Lorenzo Alexander, Corey Graham). He won the trades for McCoy and Jerry Hughes. Someone gave him a draft pick for Matt Cassel.
Much of the Bills’ undoing in 2015 and 2016 falls at the feet of Ryan (treading softly around a Ryan foot joke). The defensive schemes he has employed at times just don’t make any sense. How many times do you see the Bills rush three and leave the middle of the field wide open? Even with Marcell and Kyle, the Bills’ defense has been gashed at times on runs between the tackles. I can’t fault Whaley for a poor defensive scheme.
Ultimately, I think the decision on Whaley should come down to whether or not the Bills want to completely rebuild. I really don’t want to start firing people unless I’m firing EVERYONE. I’ve seen enough of quick fixes. I don’t want to shuffle anymore chairs on the deck of the Titanic. The Bills should do one of two things – either completely clean house from Brandon on down, or give Rex, Tyrod, and Whaley one more year together to figure things out. This would mean exercising Taylor’s extension and giving Whaley the chance to fill the holes on the roster through the draft and free agency.
I really don’t have an interest in just firing Whaley (keeping the coach and finding a new GM for him would be a disaster), nor do I want to fire Rex and have Pegula/Brandon start a new search for a head coach. Good luck finding a reputable candidate who will take the Bills seriously. Who wants to go somewhere known for firing coaches after two years?
Whaley hasn’t done a strong enough job as GM where I feel I HAVE to keep him. If the Bills want to clean house and start over, I’m fine with that. I would look for a new, more forward-thinking vision in the front office. Whaley has too much of an old-school mentality (run and play defense, move draft assets for win-now talent) for my liking. With that said, his ability to identify talent has earned him the right to handle one more offseason to figure this thing out and finally get Buffalo to the playoffs.
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