All season long, the Cleveland Indians’ outfield has been a mix-and-match job for Terry Francona. During the season’s first half, Jose Ramirez and Marlon Byrd made many appearances in the outfield for the Tribe, but in the second gave way to Abraham Almonte, Brandon Guyer and, more recently, Coco Crisp. At the same time, Rajai Davis, Lonnie Chisenhall and Tyler Naquin have gotten consistent at bats all season for the Indians while also playing outfield. When you count in Michael Martinez, Erik Gonzalez and some early-season appearances in April by Collin Cowgill, the Indians have had an incredible 11 players log outfield innings in 2016.
Normally, using 11 different outfielders in a season would spell bad news for a club. Giving 11 different players opportunities would seemingly indicate that few players were performing well enough to deserve consistent playing time. However, this is far from the case for the Indians: collectively, their outfielders have totaled 11.4 Wins Above Replacement, good for third best in all of baseball.
Clearly, Francona has done an excellent job balancing playing time between his outfielders and using match-ups to maximize production. If the Indians are to make a deep playoff run, this will need to continue. Especially considering the recent injuries to Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, Cleveland can ill-afford to have any inefficiency from their outfielders in the postseason.
With nearly a full-season sample size, and in most cases, a career’s-worth of information, we can determine who the Indians should be starting in the outfield during the 2016 postseason.
Pending a surprise injury, Cleveland should carry five regular outfielders (Davis, Naquin, Crisp, Guyer and Chisenhall, most likely) on its 25-man playoff roster, with Ramirez and Martinez able to play outfield in emergency situations.
Against right-handed pitchers, Francona shouldn’t have too much of an issue. Chisenhall is a no-brainer to start in right field against righties. This year, he has been well above-average on offense vs. RHP (115 wRC+) and slightly above-average in his career (101 wRC+). To make his case even stronger, Chisenhall is a quality defender in right field (career 9.3 UZR/150 ).
Picking the starters in center field and left field against right-handers isn’t quite as obvious, but still not overly-difficult. Ideally, Davis would start in center while Naquin played left field. This may surprise some, as Davis, being a right-handed hitter, doesn’t have the platoon advantage that the switch-hitting Crisp does. The rational? Davis has still produced better vs. righties this year than Crisp (95 wRC+ to 90 ) and plays much better defense (6.8 OF UZR/150 to -21.9). Similarly, although the Indians have played Davis in left and Naquin in center when both are in the lineup, based off the numbers, they shouldn’t. By UZR, Naquin has been horrible in center field (-17.3 UZR/150), while we’ve already seen that Davis has been above-average. However, despite Naquin’s defensive shortcomings, his offensive production on the year (140 wRC+) is too significant to keep him out of the lineup with a platoon advantage, even though he has cooled off as of late (.235/.319/.357 since August).
Further, benching Crisp to start games vs. right-handed pitching allows Crisp to be a potential pinch-hitter/runner. Crisp is one of the team’s best bunters, and has recorded 9 steals this year. When paired with his switch-hitting and “clutch” performance this year (.397/ .459/.589 with RISP), Crisp becomes an intriguing late-game substitute.
So, now that we have determined the Indians’ best outfield lineup against right-handed pitching, how should Francona handle his outfielders against southpaws? Perhaps this should be an easier decision for Francona. Brandon Guyer will start in left field without question, due to his .328/.458/.552 slash line against lefties and his track record of solid defense (career 5.7 UZR/150 in LF). Rajai Davis, another right-handed hitter, should without question start in center field. Though he hasn’t been great in 2016 against southpaws (85 wRC+), he has a great career track record (115 wRC+), and as previously mentioned, he is by far Cleveland’s best defensive center fielder.
Now, while Guyer and Davis are obvious starters against lefties, the starting right-fielder is a little more tricky. Over the past few months, the switch-hitting Almonte has taken right field in these scenarios, and performed well, posting a 108 wRC+. However, due to a positive PED test over the winter, Almonte is ineligible for the postseason.
It would seem the Indians aquired Coco Crisp to fill Almonte’s role in the postseason, given they play the same positions and both are switch hitters. However, there are two important distinctions: where Almonte has been good in 2016 against lefties, Crisp has been poor (74 wRC+) and, while Almonte is a solid defender, the 36 year-old Crisp is a liability on defense.
Given that information, it would seem the Indians could do better than starting Crisp against lefties in the playoffs. While in an ideal hypothetical scenario, prospect Yandy Diaz and his 1.218 OPS in AAA this year against lefties would be a good option, the Indians have refused to promote him. In reality, it appears playing Chisenhall against lefties is still a better choice than Crisp, despite Crisp’s platoon-advantage.
If the two players’ offensive production is equal, Chisenhall’s far superior defense would give him the advantage and that appears to be the case. With limited sample sizes, it is difficult to determine who has been the better hitter on a season-by-season basis, but since 2014, Chisenhall’s 86 wRC+ trumps Crisp’s mark of 74 wRC+ in the same time frame. Furthering the argument for Crisp to sit in favor of Chisenhall is Crisp’s previously mentioned upside off the bench late in games.
It would appear the key for the Indians to maximize their outfield production is not to fall victim to the belief that a platoon advantages automatically mean one hitter is better than the other. While Crisp can hit from both sides of the plate, it doesn’t mean he can do it particularly well and especially with his poor defense, starting Crisp at all in the postseason would be a mistake. Hopefully, Terry Francona realizes that, and Indians’ fans postseason hopes aren’t foiled by Crisp underperforming when another player could have done better.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
