As the calendar flips from August to September, something incredible happens in the world of Major League Baseball: the active roster for each team expands from 25 to 40. For some teams who may not be in playoff contention, the extra roster space allows an opportunity for prospects to get a low-pressure cup of coffee in the MLB. For teams that are in the playoff hunt, it provides a chance for teams to have more flexibility when using pinch hitters, pinch runners, defensive subs and relief pitchers in the late innings of games. For all teams, the extra bodies are a welcome addition to teams that are worn down from the long season.
With the Cleveland Indians in the thick of a playoff race, they have many interesting decisions to make when the rosters expand. Many players already rostered on the Indians 40-man will be promoted. Erik Gonzalez spent time with the team earlier this season and is almost certainly a lock to return. Reliever pitchers like Kyle Crockett and Shawn Armstrong who have bounced between Cleveland and Columbus all year are also seemingly no-brainers to be promoted once the rosters expand. Finally, players like Cody Anderson, Shawn Morimando, Ryan Merritt, and T.J. House have typically served as starting pitchers in the minors, but could serve as longer relief options, or even as insurance to an injury by one of the Tribe’s starters.
Yet, not all decisions are so simple. What if the Indians may want to promote a player not already on the team’s 40-man? Certainly, this year that scenario is very likely. Yandy Diaz, a third basemen who can also play the outfield corners or second base, seems like an excellent candidate for promotion. Diaz, a 25 year-old from Cuba, is currently slashing a dominant .320/.395/.447 line in AAA. With Abraham Almonte suspended for the postseason and currently playing against lefty pitching, Diaz’s right-handed bat could have a role in Cleveland in September and potentially beyond. Outfielder Bradley Zimmer (.816 OPS between AA and AAA this year) and starting pitcher Adam Plutko (6-4, 3.76 ERA in 13 AAA starts) are also potential promotion options who aren’t currently on the Indians’ 40-man.
Should the Indians choose to promote anyone not currently on the 40-man, they would have to cut someone currently rostered. This can be problematic, shown when Cleveland designated minor league catcher Tony Wolters in February. Though he struggled in 2015, he is now considered one of the best receiving catchers in baseball and is posting a .755 OPS with Colorado, a much better mark than Yan Gomes, Roberto Perez or Chris Gimenez.
Assuming the Indians promote Diaz and possibly Zimmer, Plutko or other non 40-man players, which players on the 40-man are the safest bets to cut? The most obvious option is Jesus Aguilar, the man who arguably should have been waived instead of Wolters earlier this year.
Aguilar is a bonafide example of a AAAA player, someone who can succeed in the minor leagues, but can’t quite make the cut in the majors. At age 26, 2016 is Aguilar’s third season playing at the AAA level, where he has always been successful. In 377 games at AAA, Aguilar has an .809 OPS and 64 home runs. As a 6’3, 250 pound first basemen with limited mobility, Aguilar relies on his power for value. While it has been there in the minors, scouts have expressed concern over Aguilar’s bat speed and his performance in his limited MLB play, a double as his sole extra base hit in 52 ABs, has damaged his value.
While the argument could be made that Aguilar should be given more MLB exposure before giving up on him, that exposure won’t come as long as the Indians are playoff contenders. Further, with younger first base prospects with similar profiles behind Aguilar in Nellie Rodriguez and Bobby Bradley, the Indians shouldn’t have to think twice about parting ways with Aguilar to promote someone like Diaz.
If for some reason the Indians can’t bear to part with Aguilar, they do have other reasonable options. Outfielder Collin Cowgill would also be a logical player to cut to make room. Originally, Cowgill was signed as a depth option for the Indians before 2016 and was lauded as a plus defender who could hit left-handed pitching.
While that could be useful if it was true, Cowgill’s bat hasn’t been serviceable at AAA, much less in the majors. In 96 games this year with Columbus, he has put up a miserable .642 OPS, though better than his .298 in his nine games with Cleveland. Considering that Cowgill is 30, he doesn’t have any real prospect pedigree left. Just like Aguilar, the Indians should lose no sleep over giving up on Cowgill in favor of a legitimate prospect.
But, what if for some reason the Indians want to promote three or more non rostered players? Can they afford to cut three players? The answer: absolutely. On top of Aguilar and Cowgill, relief pitcher Austin Adams is completely expendable. To begin with Adams has been terrible this year while pitching for the Indians, appearing in 15 games and allowing 12 earned runs in 15.1 innings, including three home runs.
That performance aside, nothing about Adams sticks out as someone worth keeping around. He is 30 years old, so like Cowgill, has no real prospect pedigree to hold on to. Further, he hasn’t shown any ability to strike out MLB hitters in his 55.2 career innings, posting a 6.8 K/9, despite a career 9.3 K/9 in the minors. Meanwhile, his career walk rate in the minors (2.6 BB/9) is solid but not spectacular.
Without question, the Indians have made some curious decisions with their 40-man roster in the recent past. It seems players like Aguilar, Adams and Cowgill have nine lives and the Indians dread cutting any of their players, which in some regards, is understandable. Still, at the very least, Diaz needs to be in Cleveland in September and the odds that all three of Aguilar, Adams, and Cowgill survive the September call-ups will be thin.
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