When the Cleveland Indians traded Brandon Moss to the St. Louis Cardinals for Rob Kaminsky last July, many immediately praised the Indians for making the deal. Moss had largely been a disappointment for the Indians, who had fallen out of contention by the trade deadline and Kaminsky was actually seen as an overpay by many outlets, including MLB.com.
At the time of the trade, Kaminsky was widely regarded as a Top-100 prospect in baseball. A first round pick out of St. Joseph Regional High School in Jersey by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2013, Kaminsky had impressed at each level of the minor leagues when the Indians acquired him. As one of the youngest players in the High-A Florida State League in 2015, Kaminsky went 6-5 in 17 starts with a 2.09 ERA, while holding his opponents to a .228 batting average.
Though Kaminsky’s build left something to be desired at just 5-11, the lefty was praised universally by scouts for his plus curveball and a fastball that could reach 95 mph, a combination that Baseball America called “overwhelming.” While Kaminsky never displayed excellent strikeout ability (career 7.2 K/9), he had demonstrated good control (career 2.8 BB/9) and an excellent home run rate (career 0.2 HR/9). Though his ceiling was regarded as a mid-rotation starter, most scouts agreed that his floor was very high as a lefty-specialist out of the bullpen.
However, shortly after the deal, there were rumors that the Cardinals were willing to trade Kaminsky because he was having issues with his curve. Though regarded by baseball outlets as Top-100 prospect, perhaps the Cardinals knew Kaminsky was unlikely to live up to that billing.
Unfortunately, during the first part of Kaminsky’s time with the Indians, he did little to quell the rumors of the Cardinals knowing something was off with Kaminsky. He only made two so-so starts (9.2 IP, 6 R, 4 ER, 5 BB, 4 K) with Lynchburg in 2015 before ending his season on the DL as the result of a back injury. With Kaminsky’s very quiet second half in 2015, much of the hype surrounding him died down. As previously mentioned, according to MLB.com, Kaminsky was considered a Top-100 prospect and the third best prospect by in the Indians system when the trade was made in July of 2015. However, when the 2016 season began, Kaminsky wasn’t on MLB.com’s Top-100 list, and had also dropped to #9 in the Indians’ system.
Though his stock was down among media outlets, the Indians showed faith in Kaminsky by placing the 21 year-old at AA Akron to start the 2016 season. Like most prospects making the jump to AA, Kaminsky initially struggled. In April and May, Kaminsky made seven starts and put up very poor numbers, going 1-2 with a 4.68 ERA in 32.2 innings pitched, while allowing opponents to slash .285/.369/.438 against him. Meanwhile, he was striking out fewer batters than ever at 5.05 K/9, while his walk rate also ballooned at 4.75 BB/9. Along with his struggles on the mound, Kaminsky also raised some durability questions, spending a few weeks on the disabled list with the same back issues that bothered him in 2015. To make matters even worse, Brandon Moss had a .777 OPS between April and May with St. Louis. Kaminsky’s stock was at a new low, and it appeared the Cardinals had won the trade.
Luckily, I probably wouldn’t be writing this article if Kaminsky hadn’t started to turn things around in Akron. As soon as the calendar flipped to June, Kaminsky has been a different pitcher: He has made 10 starts, going 4-4, with a much stronger 3.10 ERA and .230/.289/.326 opponent slash line. Unsurprisingly, his K/9 has improved to 6.5 (and is an even better 8.1 in his past five starts) while his BB/9 has dropped to 2.4.
The Kaminsky we have seen for the past month and a half in Akron is the one Tribe fans expected when he was acquired for Brandon Moss. In hindsight, many were guilty of judging Kaminsky too harshly as he dealt with injuries and jumped a level. Even though his poor performances were real, his struggles only lasted for nine starts, albeit nearly over the course of a calendar year. At 3.5 years younger than the average AA player, perhaps it would be fair to expect Kaminsky’s transition to be even more of a struggle than it has been.
Right now, the most exciting aspect of Kaminsky’s performance has been his recent uptick in strikeouts. While he will never generate an elite K/9, his 8.1 mark in his last five starts is above average and will play nicely with his ability to avoid walking batters or surrender home runs. More than anything else, the fact that he has made such progress at just 21 years old is truly encouraging. Surely Kaminsky could be used in a potential trade package for the Indians, but if not, Cleveland will have the luxury of being patient with Kaminsky, something that has paid dividends for other Indians’ pitchers recently, like Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer. No doubt, by following their models, Kaminsky could end up as one of the next great pitchers appearing at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario.
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