Entering the 2016 season, everyone and their mother knew the Cleveland Indians’ biggest weakness: their outfield. It was clear the Indians had holes to fill even before Michael Brantley was seriously injured and Abraham Almonte was suspended 80 games for testing positive for PEDs. Yet, even after losing Brantley and Almonte, the Indians front office did very little to ease the concerns of fans.
The front office’s “answer” to Cleveland’s outfield problem was by making a series of low-profile moves, highlighted by the signing of Rajai Davis and the promotion of Tyler Naquin from AAA. Davis was a 35 year-old who relied heavily on his speed, and Naquin, though a former first round pick, didn’t have a great prospect pedigree. The Indians also decided to play Jose Ramirez, who entered the season with zero professional outfield experience and an average-at-best bat, in left field.
With those moves, the Indians outfield primarily consisted of a 35 year-old (Davis), a B-level rookie prospect (Naquin), and two converted infielders (Lonnie Chisenhall and Ramirez). By all indications, this was a recipe for disaster.
Only, it hasn’t been.
Against all odds, the outfield of Davis/Chisenhall/Naquin/Ramirez, along with contributions from the now-suspended Marlon Byrd and utility-man Michael Martinez, have actually been good. All of Cleveland’s outfielders in 2016 have exceeded expectations to date. Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs.com highlighted this in a recent article and used the following graph to depict the over-achievement of the Tribe’s outfield:
The graph compares the actual Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to the players’ projected WAR in the same number of plate appearances. At this point in the season, Sullivan explains the Indians’ outfield was only expected to be worth 1.7 WAR, but instead has combined for 5.3 WAR.
The increase in production has been due almost entirely to offense. In 44 games, Tyler Naquin has torn the cover off the ball, posting a 151 wRC+, meaning he is producing runs at a 51% higher rate than the average MLB player. Likewise, Jose Ramirez has been very strong at the plate, putting up a 116 wRC+ in 63 games this season. Chisenhall and Davis have had less drastic improvements this season, but have still been good, with both posting a 105 wRC+. In short, all of the Indians’ primary outfielders have been markedly above average on offense, when all were expected to be average or worse entering the year.
However, despite all the offense so far this season, there remain two reasons for concern: regression and defense. The regression aspect is simple: though the outfield of Naquin/Chisenhall/Davis/Ramirez have been good so far, there is a reason expectations were low in the first place. What happens if any or all begin to struggle like they were expected to?
Naquin is the most obvious candidate for regression. His .318 batting average is massively inflated by his unsustainable .453 batting average on balls in play, and his current isolated power (ISO) of .234 is much higher than his best ISO in the minor leagues of .167. While Naquin may be a productive MLB hitter, he will not continue being anywhere near as good as he has been to date.
Davis, Chisenhall, and Ramirez don’t have the same glaring signs of regression that Naquin has, but all three are currently producing at a significantly higher rate than their career averages. With that in mind, some drop off in production would hardly be a surprise.
Meanwhile, as good as the outfielders have been on offense, the defense has left something to be desired. Center field has been the most problematic defensive position for the Tribe. By defensive runs saved, Tyler Naquin (-10 DRS) and Rajai Davis (-8 DRS) are the two worst center fielders in baseball with at least 250 innings played. Meanwhile, DRS puts Jose Ramirez (-2 DRS) as baseball’s 10th worst left fielder. None of these things should come as a surprise, as Davis is aging and has a mediocre arm, Naquin is a rookie and Ramirez never played left field before this season.
The outfield situation in Cleveland is complex and results in several tricky questions. Namely, it is unclear where Almonte fits when he is eligible to return from suspension on July 3rd. Further, there is now uncertainty whether or not the Indians need to acquire an outfield bat at the trade deadline.
Frankly, the issue comes down to Naquin. As long as he continues to produce offensively like an All-Star, the Indians will likely keep things as they stand. However when/if Naquin comes back down to earth, his MLB-worst defense in center will no longer be tolerable, and the Indians will likely need to make some changes.
That is where Almonte comes in. Last year, he graded out as above average on defense, while posting a strong 111 wRC+ in 51 games with the Indians. Though Almonte is a switch hitter, he is much better against right-handed pitchers (career 99 wRC+) than left (career 66 wRC+), making him a perfect platoon partner with Davis, who mashes lefties (career 118 wRC+).
An Almonte/Davis platoon would provide roughly average defense in center, along with being an above average pairing offensively. If Brantley will be back from the DL before August, the Indians probably wouldn’t need to make any more changes, but that scenario seems less and less likely.
If Brantley remains unavailable and the Indians choose to make a trade, Almonte could give the team options. By switching from Naquin to Almonte, the Tribe would have solid defense in both center field and right field, given Chisenhall’s presence. The team could make Ramirez their primary third basemen (another upgrade) and seek a trade for a left fielder without worrying too much about defense, given the presence of two other good defenders in the outfield. Options include Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Beltran, Jay Bruce, Ryan Braun, among others.
Ultimately, the Indians outfield has overachieved, but it is risky relying on them going forward, especially Naquin. No doubt, the Tribe could use Almonte’s solid bat against RHP’s and reliable glove. Almonte could provide the flexibility for the Indians to make a splash at the trade deadline that would better prepare the team for a deep playoff run.
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