We’re still hoping for a miracle playoff berth scenario, though that could be killed before kickoff depending on how the noon games go. Either way, I kind of want an 8-8 season just to say this wasn’t a losing year. 8-8 would be an improvement over 2015 and show that things are headed in the right direction. And of course, next week at Atlanta will have to serve as our “Super Bowl”. The Saints lost to the Bucs in Tampa less than two weeks ago by the low score of 16-11. The Saints offense was completely neutralized, failed to score a touchdown, and Brees finished the game with 3 interceptions. This time it’s in the Dome and it will hopefully be more conducive to the offense playing well – especially when you consider the momentum they have based on how last week went. Here’s five things I’m looking for:
1. Can the Saints slow down Mike Evans again without Delvin Breaux?
It appears Breaux is going to miss this game. He didn’t play last week and he did not participate in practice this week. That leaves B. W. Webb, Sterling Moore and Ken Crawley to match up against Evans. Evans had 4 catches for 42 yards on 8 targets last time these two teams faced off. Limiting his impact was significant in how the Saints were able to hold the Bucs to 16 points. I feel like that would be tough to duplicate no matter what but without Breaux it becomes near impossible. I’m half hoping Winston will force the ball to Evans more, leading to more pick opportunities, but I think we have to be realistic that Evans is due for a monster game. Hopefully the Saints can continue to slow him down.
2. Run the ball.
During that horrible offensive stretch against the Lions and Bucs – the Saints went down multiple scores early and abandoned a running game that wasn’t working early. This played right into the hands of the Bucs who were able to get pressure with four players and drop 7 into coverage. They’re going to trust McCoy and Ayers to disrupt again, which means the Saints will get fronts they can run on. But 16 carries for 46 yards (2.9 per carry) which is what the Saints running game turned in two weeks ago isn’t going to work. They need to commit to the run early and not get in a position where Brees is forcing passes. The good news is Mark Ingram seems to be feeling better – and he’s angry – so I’m looking forward to seeing the Saints lean on him more this time around.
3. Feed Fleener?
The Cowboys beat the Bucs 26-20 last week and “only” turned the ball over once. I say “only” because the Bucs forced 14 turnovers during the 5 game win streak that preceded that loss. This defense is scary when it comes to taking the ball away and the Saints haven’t exactly protected it well this season either. The Bucs defense does give up yards (23rd overall and 24th against the run) but they remind me of the Gregg Williams defense in that they give up a low point total because of the takeaways. The Cowboys did a fantastic job running the ball (32 for 185 – 5.8 per), so committing to that could have success and limit the giveaways. When the Saints throw, though? I think attacking the linebackers in coverage, taking what is given underneath, and staying away from their excellent corners could be a good thing. Fleener has been ignored for a while and I feel like he’s due for a decent game. He’s been a decoy a lot recently. Against the Bucs he only had 1 catch for 6 yards. The Cowboys leaned heavily on Witten with a lot of dump offs. Witten had 51 yards, but on 10 catches. He was an extension of the run game. With John Kuhn banged up and possibly missing this game I think Fleener will see more snaps and the Saints need to find a way to incorporate him into the gameplan. The Bucs won’t expect it.
4. Are the Saints playing for something?
The path to the playoffs is pretty much impossible. I will be looking at other scores to see if the game has meaning prior to kickoff, though. If the Saints end up eliminated, I wonder if they’ll come out flat. I’m guessing Sean Payton will purposefully shut off outside world distractions so his players aren’t thinking about it. Per Christopher Dabe of NOLA.com:
According to the New York Times playoff simulator, the Saints hold a less than 1 percent chance at earning the conference’s No. 6 seed. Another website, MakeNFLPlayoffs.com, put the Saints’ playoff chances at .38 percent.
Forgetting all the ridiculous things that need to happen for the Saints to get in – let’s focus on what needs to happen before kickoff: the Bears need to beat the Redskins and the Vikings need to beat the Packers. I don’t see either thing happening… but if they do, a Saints win would keep them alive.
5. The home crowd, or lack thereof
The game got flexed to 3:25pm, interfering with a lot of Christmas eve family plans. The Saints are probably not playing a game that matters, the fans are disappointed, the timing of this game is awful, and this is all evidenced by the fact that you can buy a ticket on stub hub for like $20. Maybe less at this point. I’m going to the game and I’m expecting a half empty stadium with a lame crowd itching to leave early. The Bucs need this win as their playoff hopes are very real. I expect them to take advantage of beneficial surroundings and circumstance. I expect this to be as poor of a fan support showing as I’ve almost ever seen for a Saints home game, at least since the Ditka era. I hope I’m wrong.
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