Most Saints fans seem to be ok with hurting draft stock as the penalty for a win over the Falcons this Sunday. Good on you for that. I think very few of us want to end the season 7-9 for the third straight season, capped off by being swept at the hand of the Dirty Birds. That said, a loss would be maybe just a fraction easier to digest with the gift of a better draft pick. So where are the Saints slotted to pick, anyway?
Currently the 7-8 Saints are slotted to pick 14th (technically tied for 13th with the Colts). Amazingly, between 9th and 19th overall are all teams within one game of the Saints. That’s right, the Panthers are currently slotted 9th with a 6-9 record, whereas the Broncos are slotted 19th at 8-7. That means the result of Sunday’s game could have a 10 slot difference in where they pick in the first round come April… of course depending on how the other games go. So what are those games? Here’s what you want to root for on Sunday to help the Saints’ stock.
Panthers (6-9) at Bucs (8-7): If the Saints win, there’s no way they can catch the Panthers, so they’re better off with a Bucs win here. If the Saints lose, though, they’ll want the Panthers to win so they can stay try to move ahead of them. Based on strength of schedule, and my math may be off, it seems the Saints can catch the Panthers but it’s unlikely.
Cowboys (13-2) at Eagles (6-9): The Browns own the Eagles’ pick, but if the Saints lose they’ll want the Eagles to win for a chance to pass ahead. The Cowboys have already clinched homefield advantage, so it’s not as impossible as you think. I doubt we’ll see much effort from Jerry Jones’s crew as they rest for the playoffs. If the Saints win this doesn’t matter.
Cardinals (6-8-1) at Rams (4-11): We definitely want a Cards win here. If the Saints lose, they’ll pass in front of them should they do that. That tie playing a key part here (would be 7-9 vs. 7-8-1). If the Saints win this doesn’t matter.
Bills (7-8) at Jets (4-11): The Bills just fired the Ryan brothers and decided to roll with E. J. Manuel at QB this Sunday. That doesn’t bode well. The Jets have already quit, though. So who knows? The Bills will pick ahead of the Saints based on strength of schedule so we need them to win if the Saints lose. If the Saints win this doesn’t matter.
Jaguars (3-12) at Colts (7-8): The Saints and Colts are dead even in strength of schedule. I have a hard time seeing the Colts lose this one, so a loss by the Saints would mean they pass them.
Bears (3-12) at Vikings (7-8): Rooting for both of these teams didn’t work out well at all for the Saints this past Sunday. The Eagles own the Vikings pick but even so we want them to win. If the Vikings lose and the Saints win, the Vikes would pick ahead.
Texans (9-6) at Titans (8-7): Go Texans! A Titans loss and a Saints win would mean the Saints dropping one back. If the Saints lose this doesn’t matter.
Ravens (8-7) at Bengals (5-9-1): Pretty cut and dry, we want the Ravens. If they lose and the Saints win, it looks like the Ravens would pick ahead based on SoS. If the Saints lose this doesn’t matter.
Raiders (12-3) at Broncos (8-7): Based on my questionable math, the Broncos strength of schedule is too high for them to pick higher than the Saints, even if they lose. Might as well root for them to win just in case of shenanigans, though.
So lots going on depending on what the Saints and others do. Theoretically the Saints could pick anywhere between 10 and 18 (with 9 and 19 being pie in the sky but almost impossible). We’ll see how it all shakes out, but either way don’t worry they’ll have a fair shake at one of the 48 projected first round Alabama players… slightly bitter. Where do you want the Saints to pick?
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