An aspect that many who haven’t read Moneyball don’t understand about the book and the theory is that the general focus is not that walks win baseball games, but that walks are more important than most teams think they are, allowing undervalued, but still talented, players be had at a cheaper cost.
Since the release of that book and thousands of stats in subsequent seasons, it is becoming harder and harder to find the next market efficiency. The Royals bullpen usage in both the 2014 and 2015 World Series exposed one and the Indians and Cubs both took advantage in 2016 by acquiring Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman from New York.
There were obvious ways both World Series teams contended, particularly their starting rotations and offensive production, but baseball is more than pitching and hitting. Breaking things down in the most simple fashion, it is about scoring and preventing runs. While the primary focus of that is with the man on the mound and the one at the plate, it should not be the entire focus. It was this focus that made the Indians underdogs in each play-off series in 2016 as they didn’t have the slugging numbers of any of the three teams they faced.
They more than made up for it, however, with two underrated aspects in the game, base running and defense.
Baserunning
One of the reasons the national media liked the Red Sox and the Blue Jays so much in the ALDS and ALCS was star power. The Indians had no nationally known players who had been around and adored for years while Boston came with David Ortiz and Toronto had the tandem of Jose Bautista and the newest Indians, Edwin Encarnacion.
In general, it takes awhile for a player to become well known and this means that most of the biggest names in the game are old (and hit home runs) and old people (especially those who make money by hitting home runs) are slow. Mike Napoli was the perfect example of this for the Indians as he had an incredibly unfair amount of attention paid toward him given his extremely limited amount of production compared to other players like Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor.
What this all leads to is the fact that, lead by Rajai Davis, Lindor and Ramirez, the Indians were the top team in the American League in runs scored due to base running (BsR). Behind only the Padres and Diamondbacks in all of baseball, Indians baserunners added 17.1 more runs than the average MLB team during the regular season despite Napoli being worth -5.2. While Davis, who is unlikely to return as a free agent, was worth a team high 10 runs on his own, Jose Ramirez was worth 8.8 and more importantly, Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Abraham Almonte and Tyler Naquin were all worth at least one run more than the average baserunner during the regular season.
By having a line-up nearly filled with players who can move when necessary, it wasn’t as imperative that the Indians constantly slugged everything in sight. This doesn’t necessitate small ball or even stealing bases directly, but being smart on the base paths and taking an extra base when it is available. Many times in 2016, this aggressiveness lead to an extra run and with the Indians pitching staff, one extra run was often all they needed.
With the starting nine in 2017 currently expected to be something along the lines of Lindor, Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Ramirez, Chisenhall, Almonte and Roberto Perez (or Yan Gomes), they should have above average base runners in six of nine positions with Perez and Santana being near enough to league average. While Encarnacion will certainly be the weak spot in this consideration, he is generally station to station and not nearly as aggressive as Napoli, meaning he shouldn’t at least cost the Indians runs with his base running, he just won’t add in that capacity. Of course, should he hit with as much power as he has in recent seasons, he should be able to jog wherever he needs to get.
Defense
It’s odd, but while the Royals bullpens of 2015 and 2016 did get a lot of attention, their defense did not. Just looking at 2015, the defense was essentially responsible for the -0.30 difference between their team ERA and FIP as they lead the league in runs saved above average at 56.9, more than double the next best team, the Indians.
The Indians began improving their defense in 2015 with the addition of Francisco Lindor and continued to improve in 2016, saving 41.6 runs over the average team and finishing behind only the Royals and Angels in the American League. The World Champion Cubs were even better, saving a nice MLB best 69 runs.
While defense doesn’t help on strike outs (which Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar and the bullpen specialize in) or home runs (which Josh Tomlin specializes in), it still helped lower the Indians overall team ERA to 3.86 compared to the 3.91 it was expected to be.
The best news here for the Indians is that while baserunning may take a step back in 2017 (or simply maintain), defense is likely to improve. Lindor and Kipnis should remain constants while Ramirez should exclusively be playing at 3B where he was worth 5.7 UZR/150 compared to left field (where he started 2016 and was worth -8.3 UZR/150). First base was a trouble spot for the Indians last year (and has really been for decades), but Encarnacion has been worth 1.6 UZR/150 at the position each of the last two seasons, so it should be improved even if he is just splitting time with Santana.
The outfield remains an area of question, but Almonte is a positive player in the corners and league average in center. It’s hard to predict what Chisenhall will do after being considered among the best in baseball in right in 2015 and one of the worst in 2016 or how (if) Brantley will return from injury. One huge benefit to both defense and baserunning could be Bradley Zimmer, who is rated extremely highly in speed, arm strength and overall fielding. Baseball Prospectus had Zimmer as the 26th best prospect in all of baseball going into 2016 and he put up solid numbers between AA and AAA with 8 assists, a .990 fielding percent and 38 steals. The Indians are deep enough in the outfield that he won’t likely break camp with the team, but should any of the Indians outfielders not be able to perform or play below expectations, he will be there in AAA waiting and ready.
The Future
Taking advantage of these often overlooked aspects of the game was not an accident for the Indians. For years they have been drafting and signing great all around athletes, not just simple mashers. Lindor, Zimmer and Clint Frazier were among the first taken after changing draft strategies, but coming up the minors right now are a whole different crop of similar players. Greg Allen is an incredible baserunner and great defender who could debut in 2017 and should definitely be up by 2018. Francisco Mejia isn’t just a great hitter for a catcher, but is considered a great defender as well. Still further away, outfielders Gabriel Mejia and Todd Isaacs brought lightning to the bases in Mahoning Valley this year and defense was definitely a consideration when drafting Conner Capel and Nolan Jones in 2016.
While neither aspect will be underrated for long (and even now they are more underrated by the media and fans than by the teams themselves), both will remain important for the entire existence of baseball as a sport as scoring and preventing runs remain the primary aspect of the game. Pitching and hitting are extremely important, but it should provide confidence to know that the Indians will not be giving away runs on defense or the bases in 2017 or in the long term after that.
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