The Value of First-Round Picks

The Cleveland Cavaliers just stole Kyle Korver. It was borderline grand larceny. The presumptive favorite to win the east, Cleveland had a gaping hole at 2-guard after losing JR Smith, who is sidelined for the next three months. It did not deter Atlanta from shipping out their sharpshooting wing for little-to-nothing in return.

This trade exemplifies the value of first-round picks. Atlanta received Mike Dunleavy, Mo Williams, and Cleveland’s 2019 first-round pick. Although Lebron James has a player option for the 2018-2019 season, that first-rounder should nevertheless fall in the 20-30 range. I ask, where is Danny Ainge during all of this?

Would a trade package that included Gerald Green and Boston’s 2018 first-round pick be enough to get Korver? Green in 10 minutes per game averages 4.9 points on 39 percent shooting. Dunleavy in 15 minutes averages 4.6 points on 40 percent shooting. Green is also five years younger than Dunleavy. Maybe replace Green with Jerebko, and I cannot see how the Hawks would reject a Celtics offer after settling for Cleveland’s.

Since the Pierce/Garnett trade to Brooklyn, fans and media have gushed about Boston’s surplus of first-round picks. In addition to our own, the team will receive a first-rounder from the Nets in 2018, along with the Grizzlies and Clippers protected first-rounders in 2019. And of course, we can swap picks with the Nets during this June’s draft. We even own Minnesota’s 2017 second-round pick, projected to fall in the low 30s.

It’s not the most efficient use of resources to keep all the picks. The team simply will not have roster space to retain every pick, and as the Celtics grow as a team, they will be inclined to add more veteran players instead of rookies. Celtics fans have already witnessed first-round picks not panning out — R.J. Hunter and James Young in particular.

I am not arguing against the value of first-round picks. They are tremendously valuable, and Danny Ainge should not move the Brooklyn picks unless they receive a all-star talent. The team has shown a pattern, however, of overvaluing their non-Brooklyn first round picks.

Last year, the Wizards traded their 2016 first rounder (the 12th pick) and some veterans for Markieff Morris, whom the Suns actively tried to trade that entire season. Not only is he on an affordable $8M/year contract, he could have helped the team last year in the playoffs and would definitely be in the rotation this year. The Celtics could have offered the 2016 17th pick and one of their high 2016 second-rounders for Morris.

Draft picks inherently are a long-term asset. When people talk about the trade-value of picks, usually the incoming return is for short-term improvement. The Celtics could use short-term help with rebounding, rim protection, and one-on-one scoring. Would we really rather have our 2018 or 2019 pick — that lands somewhere in the 20s — instead of Kyle Korver? There’s a chance that pick turns in to a player like Rajon Rondo (21st pick in 2006), but it could also turn into Fab Melo (22nd pick in 2012).

Additionally, within the Celtics team-building timeline, we don’t need these extra non-Brooklyn picks. Let’s look at the Celtics pretend 2019 roster.

2019 Celtics:

Core players:

1.) 2017 Brooklyn 1st – should be a top 5 pick in a strong draft
2.) 2018 Brooklyn 1st – should be at least top 10
3.) Jaylen Brown – year 4, leap expected
4.) Marcus Smart – assuming he re-signs
5.) Avery Bradley – same

Other players:

6.) 2019 Memphis pick – you have to think grit’n’grind will end by 2019
7.) Ante Zizic – playing well in Euroleague, fills needs
8.) Free agent #1…
9.) Free agent #2 – we have cap space, should equate to two new players, stars or not

This is a conservative prediction of the roster composition, bordering on a negative outlook. I’m not including Guerschon Yabusele, Rozier, Horford (player option that year), Abdel Nader (playing well in the D-league), Kelly Olynyk, and, gulp, Isaiah Thomas. Even with these conservative projections, we have nine roster spots locked up and three additional first-rounders.

Why not use one of those extra picks for short-term help? The only first-rounder Danny has sent away since the Pierce/Garnett trade is the Cavaliers 2016 first-round pick (#28)… for Isaiah Thomas. He got an incredible return, and would have otherwise used that selection on a player to stash overseas.

All I’m saying, the team should not be hesitant to dangle their 2018 or 2019 first-rounder to help the team in the short-term. Yes, you can make the argument the Celtics don’t need Korver — the team’s 11.6 three pointers per game ranks fourth, and their 36.5% shooting is ninth. I do believe Korver would be an upgrade to either Green or Jerebko. His $5.7 million expiring contract would not hinder the team’s chances of signing a major free agent this offseason.

If Danny Ainge ran the Celtics like Dave Dombrowski runs the Red Sox, all our picks would be gone and maybe even Smart and Olynyk. I’m not saying the team should move all its trade assets and pull an NBA Dombrowski — that would be a recipe for disaster — but they should consider moving a few of them.