What to Expect from Joe Saunders

This idea for this entry began with a recent discussion on Angelswin.com that centered around left hander Joe Saunders. But before I discuss Joe Saunders I am going to revisit an exchange I had with Kansas City Royals fans on the message board at kcroyals.com because it directly relates to what I am going to say about Joe Saunders.

At the end of the 2007 season, the Royals believed they had struck gold with a young pitcher named Brian Bannister. Pitching for the last place Royals, Bannister won 12 games with an ERA of 3.87. Most Royals fans hailed GM Dayton Moore as a genius for acquiring Bannister and believed Bannister would be a top of the rotation starter for the Royals for many seasons. At the time I believed Bannister’s 2007 season was more a product of luck than pitching skill and ability and in October 2007 I posted the following on the Royals message board:

“I do not share the excitement of other Royals fans about Bannister. I know he had a decent ERA in 07 but he didn’t strikeout many hitters while walking too many batters. I see a huge drop off in his performance in 2008. I know pitchers like Paul Byrd don’t strikeout a lot of hitters, but they don’t walk many either. Bannister has average stuff and his positive performance in 2007 had as much to do with luck as anything else. I hope I am wrong, but my thought is Royals fans that are expecting Bannister to improve or even maintain his 2007 numbers are going to be disappointed….I believe there is a lot of merit in using the Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) statistic to analyze the performance of pitcher. Since the overall AL BABIP in 2007 was .305 and Bannister’s BABIP was .264, I would consider his 3.87 ERA in 2007 to be, in large part, attributed to his good luck. I hope I am wrong about Bannister, but I don’t see him as any tougher or smarter than most Major League pitchers and I think he will come down to earth in 2008 and we will see a significant increase in his ERA and over all performance.”

These comments regarding Bannister were met with hostility from Royals fans.

“How do you figure it had to do with luck? What I saw was a kid who, even when he did put too many guys on base, always found a way to get himself out of jams. He is extremely tough and smart in that regard”

“As for the rest of your BABIP talk – that all sounds great. I watched him pitch a lot of games. And I saw him work himself out of a lot of jams. I suppose you can call that luck if you want. I saw it as making good pitches when he needed to, and being tough enough to make those pitches in pressure situations.“

“Did you actually watch him pitch any? If you did, then I dont’ see much of a way that you can argue that he didn’t show the ability to battle when in a jam – regardless of what the stats show.“

“I see Bannister in this rotation longer than I see Greinke or Meche because he will remain consistent“

Even before the 2008 season ended I was completely vindicated. Bannister’s season was a total disaster and he was no longer a part of the Royals’ rotation. Comparing Bannister’s 2008 performance with 2007, it is easy to see what happened. He struck out more hitters in 2008, his walk rate remained consistent, yet his ERA jumped almost two runs a game and he was ineffective pitcher.