(AP Photo/Ben Margot)
Last week, we discussed the struggles of the Golden State Warriors‘ power forward, David Lee. In Part 2, one statistical finding was particularly fascinating:
Per nbawowy.com, this season Lee’s true shooting percentage is 52.3% with Andrew Bogut on the floor, 59.2% when he is off.
Delving in deeper with nbawowy.com this week, the findings only illuminate this point.
Since the beginning of the 2012-13 season, David Lee’s true shooting percentage with Bogut on the floor as been 52.8% (below league average) and without him on the floor 56.6% (well above).
Bogut’s stats have been equally glaring. When David Lee is on the floor, his true shooting percentage is 50.5%. Without Lee, it’s 57.9%
Lee’s career true shooting percentage is 57.7%. Bogut’s is 53.7%. Note: the NBA league average is 53.5%.
The numbers indicate both are less effective offensively together but very effective when apart. So the question becomes why?
Why the struggle?
Lee:
In theory a “pick-and-pop” power forward like Lee should thrive with a low post presence like Bogut. However, that hasn’t been the case.
While Lee has proven to be a reliable mid-range jump shooter for the majority of his career, it’s not his main offensive threat.
It’s a safety valve in the offense when teams collapse inside. He hits that shot around 40% for his career, though this year he’s slumped to below 30% so far, which is passable. He still prefers to slip the screen and roll to the basket for layups, which he’s made at over 60% for his career.
In the past Lee has played center, where there was no additional big man down low to bring help defense.
In fact, when Bogut was injured last season, Lee played majority of his minutes next to another offensively gifted “4” (the numerical abbreviation for a power forward in basketball lingo) in Carl Landry, who made it difficult for opposing bigs to leave him, as he was an offensive threat out to 17-18 feet. Both were very efficient and effective offensive threats.
Now playing almost purely power forward next to a natural center, Lee has to deal with that additional help defender coming over.
Lee’s quickness and craftiness has gotten him to finish well at the rim over the years against bigger opposing centers guarding him, but he is no longer being guarded by the Dwight Howards and Marc Gasols of the world. He’s being guarded by 4s who have that player waiting behind them for help.
This additional large second body waiting for him and protecting the rim has forced him to settle for jumpers or simply miss layups that he’d make with an open lane.
Bogut:
For Bogut the same thing happens. Lee tends to operate around ten feet in. That means help is easier to bring and double on his rim attempts.
Meanwhile when Lee has not been on the floor it’s usually been a small forward on the perimeter acting as the power forward, giving him additional spacing in a “four-out” (four players outside the painted area with Bogut inside) system.
The 4-out system, means Bogut only has one defender to beat, and he’s able to finish with ease.
We saw this system work well last playoffs when Lee was injured.
What to do?
We are dealing with a sample size of 59 games over two seasons, so we can’t necessarily say it won’t ever work. They could adjust.
Rusty Simmons reported on Lee’s struggles of late, but it appears that Lee may have returned to form of late:
So when his numbers dipped to 12.5 points on 40 percent shooting and 6.8 rebounds in the four games from Nov. 29 through Dec. 6, Lee went looking for answers. He studied video from last season and thought that his pace, quickness and explosiveness had dipped.
.
“I’ve been making a little pace change,” he said. “I’m just trying to be aggressive more than anything else.”
.
There’s nothing little about it.
.
Lee has averaged 19 points on 48.5 percent shooting and 13 rebounds in games since his video study. The guy who will always be viewed as a defensive liability has increased his steal average from 0.0 to 1.2 and his blocked-shot average from 0.3 to 0.7 during the same span.
The problem is, Lee is 30 years old while Bogut is 29, both are nine-year veterans. There games are not likely to change too much from here on out.
They could continue to try and work it out, but in the meantime it is costing the Warriors games they cannot afford to lose in a tight Western Conference playoff hunt.
The easiest thing to do going forward is to try staggering the rotation and limiting the minutes they are on the floor together. Utilize Bogut for large stretches with Draymond Green or Harrison Barnes at the 4 to stretch the floor.
With Jermaine O’Neal and Festus Ezeli out indefinitely, perhaps it’s best to go small and utilize Marreese Speights, another power forward who is one of the better mid-range jump shooters in the NBA, at 48.5% from 16-23 feet the last two seasons.
The spacing Speights provides would allow Lee to slip screens and cut and get his trademark finishes around the rim, which garnered him two All-Star Game appearances.
Conclusion
Much like The Struggles of David Lee article pointed out, the Warriors are dealing with square pegs that don’t fit into round holes in the post.
For a team so perimeter-oriented, having some effective offense around the rim is paramount, otherwise the Warriors will continue to live and die by outside shooting, which is not a recipe for deep playoff success.
You’d like to have your starting power forward and center thrive together. That simply isn’t happening.
The onus has to fall on head coach Mark Jackson to make the appropriate adjustments to maximize both players’ effectiveness. Both players are useful, but utilizing in them in lineups that makes them ineffective is a strategy worth considering.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
