Much has been made of just how close this year’s MVP race is between Stephen Curry and James Harden, but if recent history is any indication, Curry should be a heavy favorite to win his first MVP.
Year to year, best overall record has been a strong predictor of the eventual MVP winner, meaning the Golden State Warriors clinching of the league’s best record is a huge boost for the point guard’s candidacy.
Nine of the last 16 MVPs have come from the league’s best team, and in that time span no player to appear in 72 games with the league’s best team (Curry will have appeared in 80) has been denied the award when finishing in the league’s Top 5 in PER (Curry is currently 3rd, Harden 4th).
In the other seven seasons a player from the league’s best team did not win, the MVP has typically found a different home for one of two reasons: significantly better individual performance or health.
The most recent example comes from Kevin Durant last season, whose Oklahoma City Thunder finished 2nd in overall record in the NBA behind the San Antonio Spurs.
Durant’s case was strengthened by the fact that Tim Duncan appeared in fewer games and finished outside the league’s top 10 in PER. Comparatively, Durant played in 81 games and finished 1st in the league.
Similar examples include LeBron James in the lockout-shortened 2012 season, when the Miami Heat finished just 4th in overall record at 46-20.
That was four games behind the Chicago Bulls and Spurs, but neither of the teams’ top performers, Tony Parker and Carlos Boozer, finished very high in PER rankings. Like Durant in 2014, James led the league in PER.
Just four times since 1999 has a player won the MVP while leading the NBA in neither record nor PER. Those years provide a glimmer of hope for Harden, who can realistically end the season no better than 3rd in either category.
But even those winners suggest that the MVP will still go to Curry. In two of those four seasons, the MVP’s team won their conference, something that Harden’s Houston Rockets can’t accomplish.
In 2001, Allen Iverson led the Philadelphia 76ers to a 1st place finish in the East, despite finishing 3rd in overall record. Kobe Bryant’s Los Angeles Lakers also finished 3rd overall while winning the West in 2008.
During the 2002 season, the MVP race hinged on health. The Sacramento Kings finished 61-21, three games ahead of the Spurs. However, Kings star Chris Webber played in just 54 games and the MVP went to Duncan, who played in 81.
Not only does Harden trail Curry by a significant amount of games in the win column, the Rockets current record would qualify for the worst win-loss mark by an MVP since Steve Nash with the Phoenix Suns in 2006.
It would also be the worst conference finish of any MVP since at least 1985. The lowest any team has finished within their conference in that span is 3rd. The Rockets are currently seeded 5th.
While there may be an argument to why Harden does deserve the MVP, there isn’t one to justify giving it to him over Curry, who’s having a historic season in a number of ways.
Both are clearly the best players on their respective teams, with Curry producing even more than Harden on a per minute basis on a team with 10 more wins. Typically, that’s shown to be an unbeatable advantage in the MVP race.
What has always separated the top players is the success that comes with the numbers, rather than the numbers themselves. Rare has been the season so spectacular that voters reward production over winning.
Harden is having a great season, but not historically great. Awarding him the MVP would mean the award is heading in a new direction, away from the best player on the best team and instead to the best player on the worst team.
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