Temple is Highest Ranked AAC Team in ESPN’s 2015 Preseason FPI Rankings

The Temple Owls split their wins and losses in 2014, weren’t invited to a bowl, and lost five of their last seven games to end the season. Looks like a recipe for a middle-of-the-pack spot in the American Athletic Conference preseason rankings.

Well, computers have a different way of ranking teams. They neither use emotions, the eye test, or natural biases that human voters use; only cold-hard data crunching.

ESPN’s computers are saying Temple (yes, the school from Philly) is the strongest team from the AAC heading into 2015; ahead of last year’s AAC co-champions Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF, and the two other 2014 bowl participants from the conference, ECU and Houston. The Owls (6-6, 4-4 AAC in 2014) return nine starters on offense, all eleven defensive starters next season, and three of their six losses last year were by eight points or fewer.

These computer rankings — formally known as the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) — don’t predict how a team will finish in the coming season, but rather its overall strength heading into the next year, formulated from several factors, including a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency from the season prior and number of returning starters.

According to ESPN.com:

“FPI takes a lot of the subjectivity out of the process. It uses data that has been found to be predictive of future performance to project how strong each FBS team will be in the coming season. Last year, the top three teams in preseason FPI – Florida State, Oregon and Alabama – made the playoff.”

2014 AAC co-champ Memphis was ranked No.82 in last year’s preseason FPI, behind UCF, Cincinnati, ECU and Tulsa (Tulsa?). So, even computers haven’t mastered the perfect prediction. Still, it’s interesting material to thumb through, and when also applying the eye test, can be useful in making your preseason picks.

Here is where each AAC member sits in the 2015 ESPN preseason FPI (FPI ranking in parenthesis). Remember, significant injuries during spring practice and/or any offseason suspensions will affect the original FPI going forward. Actually, be prepared to toss these rankings after Week 1 next season.

1. Temple (50)
2. Cincinnati (53)
3. Memphis (65)
4. Houston (70)
5. UCF (73)
6. ECU (82)
7. Navy (83)
8. Tulsa (89)
9. Tulane (97)
10. South Florida (101)
11. SMU (110)
12. UConn (117)