The Tribe will begin a new season tomorrow night in Texas and it will mostly feature familiar faces from last year. In fact, there are only four members of the 25 man roster for Opening Day that weren’t with the Indians in 2016 and only one in the first 17 in the rankings. With the team expected for big things, it’s time to see who will get them there, in order of greatness.
1. Corey Kluber – 2016 Rank: #3
When the games mattered most in 2016, there was one pitcher who Terry Francona went to more than anyone else. While the assumption may be that this was Miller, but in fact Kluber pitched a full 25% of the Indians post-season innings last year, 11% more than Miller and 17 more than the Indians second most used starter. In that span, he held a 1.83 ERA and struck out more than a batter per inning. While he will certainly not be able to repeat this feat for the entire 2017 season, he’s unquestionably the most important pitcher on the Indians staff and arguably the most important player overall.
2. Francisco Lindor – 2016: #2
The only other player with a legitimate argument for that number one spot going into the year is Lindor. Winner of both the Gold Glove for AL short stop in 2016 and the Platinum Glove for best overall defender, Lindor is also impressive at the plate and is one of the team’s most well rounded hitters and most proficient base runners. If he was only a glove, he’d be a starter and a highly valued player but with his other aspects, he’s on his way to being a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate.
3. Carlos Carrasco – 2016: #7
The Indians are still a team that is largely based around pitching and infield defense and Carrasco remains the Tribe’s second most dependable starter. The injury that cost him the 2016 post-season was a freak hit and there’s little reason to believe 2017 won’t be a repeat of his strong performance from the last two and a half years.
4. Edwin Encarnacion – 2016: Unranked
The biggest free agent signing in Indians history, Encarnacion is probably ranked too highly here, but that comes with the contract. He’s hit 34 or more home runs each of the last five years, maxing out with 42 last year, but he’s also 34 years old with over 1,500 games under his belt. As primary DH, Encarnacion should be able to remain well rested and won’t hurt the team defensively. Even if he isn’t the Tribe’s best hitter, he’ll still go a long way in lengthening a line-up that was already potent enough to win the AL Pennant last year.
5. Jose Ramirez – 2016: #1
There are those who would say that Ramirez should be number one and the move from third to second only helps that argument as he is an incredible defender from that position. Projections have Ramirez as the Indians second best overall position player behind Lindor and last year he was the top offensive producer, but there are still some questions of whether he can repeat that incredible season. At 23 years old, his 2016 season seemed to come out of nowhere and, despite the Indians confidence in signing him to a long term deal, there’s always the chance he will go back there. Don’t take this too negatively, even if Ramirez takes a step back, he’ll still be one of the best offensive and defensive players in Cleveland.
6. Danny Salazar – 2016: #8
The Tribe’s #3 starter, Salazar had an incredible first half in 2016 before elbow issues caused him to miss much of the second half and struggle when he did pitch. If he can throw like he did in the first half for an entire, Salazar is a contender for Cy Young and the AL strike out crown. Even at his worst, Salazar is better than most of the aces around baseball, however, and the Indians are lucky to have him at three.
7. Andrew Miller – 2016: #17
If this was a pre-postseason player power rankings, Miller could arguably be in the top three, but there’s only so much value that can be derived from a relief pitcher, even if he’s the best in the game. By the end of his contract, Miller could be the greatest left handed reliever in Indians history and he will likely be the best for the 2017, but I still couldn’t justify starting him out higher than seven to begin the season.
8. Cody Allen – 2016: #9
The second half of the Indians late inning nightmare, Allen already is one of the greatest right handed relievers in team history and could cement his spot as the franchise’s greatest closer with another great season. Like Miller, his value is harmed by limited usage compared to other regulars, but there’s little question that the Indians bullpen will be a huge strength in 2017 and that the base will be formed around Miller and Allen.
9. Carlos Santana – 2016: #5
One of the most consistent hitters in baseball and a free agent at the end of the season, Santana has as much to play for as anyone on the team. Named the starting first baseman over Encarnacion, he will finally achieve his goal of playing in the field and in the line-up every day and there will be a huge pay-off if he can do so at a similar level to previous seasons.
10. Michael Brantley – 2016: Unranked
At his best, Brantley is one of the Indians top hitters, a slightly below league average defender and in the line-up every day. Until that last item is confirmed this year, he will remain relatively low in the rankings for a starting hitter, but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see a healthy Brantley be the Tribe’s top player again in 2017.
11. Trevor Bauer – 2016: #12
Like mentioned about Salazar, most teams would love to have a pitcher of Bauer’s talent level near the front of the rotation, but for the Indians he is number five. Last year, he was the Tribe’s second most used pitcher at 190 innings and he’s never shown any tendency towards non-self-inflicted injuries. Expect another reliable season, although he isn’t likely to break into top three territory.
12. Bryan Shaw – 2016: #15
A big step down from Miller and Allen, but still an extremely talented pitcher, Shaw will continue as the Indians primary set up man from the right side. Expect usage more similar to 2016 and 2015 than the two previous years when he surpassed 75 innings each year. Of course, he is a free agent at the end of the year, so Francona could try to burn him out, but with the focus on winning a World Series, not the AL Central, all the Indians top relievers will likely be used a little less often during the regular season than in years past.
13. Brandon Guyer – 2016: #20
The man who turned getting hit by a pitch into a skill, Guyer was signed to a two year deal prior to the season with an option for 2019 despite playing in more than 110 games just once in his career (2015). He’ll platoon in right with Chisenhall against left handers once Lonnie returns, but until then his success against right handers in limited at bats in 2016 could open him up to more regular play.
14. Dan Otero – 2016: #11
Otero is a bit of a question mark coming into the season as few expected his 1.53 ERA in 70.2 innings last year and few expect him to repeat that in 2017. If he does, he will lengthen the Indians bullpen and help save Allen, Shaw and Miller for the most important instances. At the worst, he’ll be an innings eater for an incredibly low salary for a 32 year old reliever.
15. Tyler Naquin – 2016: #10
Naquin had enough highs and lows in 2016 for an entire career and it leaves the future wide open without any real certainties. Can he maintain a batting average on balls in play above .350? Can he learn to hit the high fast ball? How much was his poor outfield defense due to lack of confidence/experience and how much will it improve in his second season? The answers to these questions will decide whether or not Naquin is fit to be the starter that he will begin the season as.
16. Roberto Perez – 2016: #24
Perez had some poor luck last year, both at the plate and with injuries and is expected to be the Indians back-up catcher this year, so many may have low expectations. However, he’s a top defensive catcher and had more success once he fully recovered from his injuries than Gomes has had in two years. At the moment, it appears the pair could split the role evenly, but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Perez took over the starting job before too long.
17. Austin Jackson – 2016: Unranked
Heading into 2016, Jackson was a coveted free agent, but after a disappointing campaign with the White Sox, the Indians were able to pick him up with a minor league deal. Now on the Major League roster, Jackson will fullfil a bench role for the Tribe to start the year, but he could become a pivotal player on the bases and in field. If not, Jackson is a disposable player should the Indians want to add Bradley Zimmer or Yandy Diaz further along in the season.
18. Josh Tomlin – 2016: #16
The Tribe’s number four starter is generally reliable for 25 starts each season, with about one home run and one walk per start. Literally, Tomlin has averaged 1.4 BB/9 and 1.6 HR/9 throughout his career. It’s very possible that the Indians could use their great depth to replace him during the season, particularly Mike Clevinger, Ryan Merritt, Shawn Morimando or Adam Plutko from AAA. The Indians are unlikely to completely move away from Tomlin after the injuries that occurred last year, but the top five Indians starters do not include him.
19. Yan Gomes – 2016: #25
Last year was a bit of a lost season for Gomes, who missed most of the year with injuries and had one of the worst offensive seasons in franchise history when he was in the field. His defense remains good enough to earn him the starting role this year and remains the most important aspect of the catcher position for the Indians with an otherwise impressive line-up. Of course, Gomes is a former Silver Slugger as well and could always return to that level of battitude, but the Indians shouldn’t base their expectations on that.
20. Abraham Almonte – 2016: #18
After years of miring as a AAAA player, Almonte finally broke out in 2015 after being traded to the Indians and he continued that success last year after coming back from his PED suspension. He’s been great on the bases and had surprising power while providing average defense in the outfield. Almonte was likely slated to be the last man off the 25 man, but Lonnie Chisenhall‘s injury has given him a slight reprieve. He remains most likely to be removed once Chisenhall returns.
21. Boone Logan – 2016: Unranked
Despite pitching in Colorado last year, Logan held a 3.69 ERA and more importantly, a .142/.222/.255 line against left handers. He will mostly be used as a LOOGY in Cleveland to keep Miller from being overused (making him very important in a way), so he could be expected to have one of his best seasons yet although in limited innings.
22. Yandy Diaz – 2016: Unranked
An Indians rookie wasn’t expected to make the team, but incredible numbers during Spring Training and an injury pushed him into the 25 man roster to start the season? Last year’s Naquin is this year’s Diaz as the third baseman hit .429/.529/.667 in 18 games and that still wasn’t enough until Jason Kipnis went on the DL to start the season. Now, he’s only expected to start at third until Kipnis returns, so it’s up to Diaz to do what Naquin did last year and force his way into the starting line-up after his April trial.
23. Zach McAllister – 2016: #21
McAllister being given a bullpen spot outright without competition was a bit of a surprise given his lack of pitch diversification and control issues in previous seasons. While his 3.44 ERA looked decent last season, his 4.01 FIP showed that he could have benefited from luck and the Indians great infield defense. As a former starter, McAllister can still pitch multiple innings per outing and if the Indians have a long man, it’s McAllister.
24. Shawn Armstrong – 2016: #28
The last man into the pen out of Spring Training could be the first to leave as he is the lone reliever with options, but there is little question that he deserved this spot. After a 2.41 ERA and 8.7 K/9 in limited Major League action and a career AAA ERA of 2.26 in over 100 innings, there’s little more he could have done to earn the job. It’s hard to see Armstrong being used in pivotal situations, but if he plays well, he could ultimately be promoted to such a role in the future. If he plays poorly, the Indians have many other minor league options including those who lost out on the role like Joe Colon, Perci Garner, Carlos Frias and Kyle Crockett.
25. Michael Martinez – 2016: #31
There isn’t a single good reason why Martinez should be on the team over Erik Gonzalez. Indians fans should be happy, however, as otherwise there wouldn’t be anything to complain about.
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