I’m worried about the Celtics. It’s been a great season, but I fear it may come crashing down too quickly. Like last season, the Celtics have internal expectations to win a playoff series. Also like last year, they sputtered over the final stretch of the season.
Boston is favored to win the first-round matchup with the Bulls, as they should be. Chicago’s roster is stuck in 2010. Their wing players aren’t reliable outside shooters and they’re overly reliant on size and rebounding. But size and rebounding are clear weaknesses for the Celtics. With Jimmy Butler, the Bulls have an all-NBA isolation scorer who could win a playoff game by himself, and Dwyane Wade proved during last year’s playoffs he can carry a team in clutch-time despite his age and injuries.
Let’s be clear, the Celtics are the better overall team. The regular season was overwhelmingly successful. The one seed, regardless of conference, is a hefty accomplishment, especially with a younger team like the Celtics. The team should also be proud of the development of its players.
Isaiah Thomas elevated his game and played like a bonafide superstar for points during the season. Jae Crowder and Avery Bradley established themselves as above average two-way starters. Marcus Smart cemented his place as a defensive menace, while Brad Stevens enjoyed another year of widespread adoration.
But they’re not peaking at the right time. Excluding Wednesday’s victory against Milwaukee’s B-team, the Celtics went 4-3 in their previous seven games, a stretch where they barely beat Orlando and Brooklyn, while getting blown out at home by Cleveland. Their defensive rating over those seven games was 111.7 — a bottom five mark — down from their 108.4 season average. They claimed the top seed largely because of Cleveland’s struggles, posting a 12-15 record since the all-star break.
The Bulls played their best basketball over the last month, going 9-4 to end the season, the league’s 5th best record over this time. They were vulnerable to miss the playoffs as recently as a month ago. Nikola Mirotic found his rhythm, averaging 15.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, shooting 44 percent from three and 47 percent overall. Rajon Rondo has played uncharacteristically well over the past month, averaging 11.3 points and 8 assists on 47 percent shooting and 48 percent from deep (…not a typo). And we know Jimmy Butler will be the best player on the court (sorry, Isaiah defenders).
For the past two years, the Celtics have dominated the middle part of the season, but quietly struggled towards the end. Last season, they went 5-4 in their final nine, dropping key games to Charlotte and Atlanta. Their struggles were masked by their impressive win at Golden State that ended the Warriors 54 game home winning streak. Even Felger was impressed, predicting they’d make the Eastern Finals.
The Bulls mainly scare me because they’re a capable isolation scoring, rebounding, and defensive team. Butler and Rondo (specifically, the engaged, national TV version of Rondo) can contain Isaiah, while the length of Michael Carter-Williams can temporarily bother him. The Bulls defense allowed 107 points per 100 possessions during the regular season, the 6th best mark in the league. Their offensive rebound rate (27 percent) ranks 4th, which doesn’t bode well with the rebounding-challenged Celtics.
I understand I’m being a major pessimist, but here’s the positive outlook. The Bulls have only four rotation players with more than four years of experience — Butler, Wade, Rondo, and Lopez (sharp-shooting Anthony Morrow plays sparingly). They are severely offensively challenged. The Stevens-Hoiberg coaching matchup is laughable. The Bulls had frequent chemistry issues earlier in the season, as management, coaches, and the players have a clear public disconnect.
When the teams last played on Match 12th, Boston dominated Chicago 100-80. Watching those highlights gives me reassurance about the Celtics chances to advance.
In sum, I think the Celtics are the better team, and they should win this series. But usually these first-round match-ups are cakewalks for #1 seeds. The C’s have been called a good regular season team that cannot win in the playoffs, and many don’t believe a 5’9” player can lead them to post-season success. They’ve overachieved over the past three years, now it’s time to live up to the expectations.
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