I’ve operated under the working assumption that Malcolm Butler would end up being a Saint for a while now. I’ve been so consumed by my #systemcorner mantra, I haven’t allowed my mind to go to a place where I considered entering the draft without him on the Saints roster. Given the fact that he’s still not acquired and the draft is 5 days away, though, I think we have to at least explore the possibility that the Saints will pick five times in the first 3 rounds without Butler on the roster. Mind you, they could still trade a 2018 pick for Butler even after the draft… so not landing him before isn’t necessarily a kiss goodbye, but it does change the strategy going in significantly.
Assuming he’s not on the team, I view the roster needs as follows:
MUSTS – pass rusher, cornerback. If Butler isn’t on the roster, these two positions are ideally addressed in no specific order at 11 and 32.
NEEDS – running back, tackle, quarterback of the future
WANTS – double up at CB, double up at pass rusher, receiver, safety, maybe tight end?
I was tempted to put “double up at running back” on this list, but I’ll assume the Saints can land Adrian Peterson or a serviceable runner through means other than the draft. After all, they found Travaris Cadet, Chris Ivory, Khiry Robinson and Tim Hightower through unconventional means.
The big question for me is how they view pass rusher vs. corner. Do they supplement pass rush so much that they feel ok rolling the dice with cover guys, or do they add enough cover guys that they feel ok rolling the dice with pass rushers? That’s the central question that affects “doubling up” in the first 3 rounds. Otherwise, edge, CB, QB, T and RB make the most sense as the five positions taken in the first three rounds.
So if we’re drafting based on need and ignoring best player available for a second, the draft looks like this:
11th overall: pass rusher
32nd overall: cornerback
2nd round pick: tackle, RB or QB
3rd round pick 1: tackle, RB or QB
3rd round pick 2: tackle, RB or QB
A case could be made for safety and receiver if the value was good enough at those other slots… or again, doubling up at edge/corner. How would you go about it?
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