On Wednesday June 21, the NHL will officially welcome in the league’s 31st franchise. On that historic evening, an expansion draft will be held to determine the roster of the newly-minted Vegas Golden Knights.
In preparation for the expansion draft, the NHL has required that all teams submit a list of players they’d like to protect by 5:00 PM on June 17. Teams will be given two different options when constructing a list of players to protect. The first choice allows for eleven total players to be retained (seven forwards, three defensemen, one goaltender). Option number-two provides for only nine total players but allows additional positional flexibility. Teams choosing option two can protect eight skaters at any position and one goaltender.
While general manager Steve Yzerman and the Tampa Bay Lightning have likely formulated a strategy for the expansion draft already, their list of protected players will not be revealed to the public for several more weeks. Today we’re going to offer our best prediction of what this list might look like.
Before we get started, there are two important rules to remember that will affect the Lightning’s plans.
1) All players with a no-trade or no-movement clause must be protected.
2) All first and second year pros are exempt from the expansion draft. It is this second rule that allows the Lightning to automatically retain emerging young centerman Brayden Point.
No-Doubt Locks: These players are near-certain to return to Tampa Bay, either because of a no-trade clause or because they are simply far too valuable to part with for nothing in return.
Forwards:
1) Steven Stamkos (NMC)
2) Ryan Callahan (NMC)
6) Ondrej Palat
Defensemen:
1) Victor Hedman (NMC)
Goaltender:
While the Lightning are fortunate to have only three players requiring mandatory no-trade protection, one of those three, Ryan Callahan, is currently signed to a deal with the most burdensome salary cap hit on the Lightning payroll ($5.8-million per season through 2020). From now through June 12, teams are allowed to ask players with a no-trade clause if they’d be willing to waive the provision in order to facilitate a move to Las Vegas. While Callahan is still a valuable third-line contributor, allowing him to depart for Vegas would open the door for retaining an additional young player at a much more team-friendly cap cost.
As it stands now, the Lightning would be able to add one additional player at both forward and defense to the above list. The decision at forward will likely come down to a choice between versatile veteran Alex Killorn and former first-round draft pick Vladislav Namestnikov.
Killorn, 27, has been an integral part of the Lightning lineup for the past four seasons. Originally a third round selection out of Harvard, Killorn has established himself as an above-average NHL player capable of serving in a multitude of different roles. While his offensive production doesn’t jump off the page, he has quietly accumulated three seasons of 15 or more goals. Losing Killorn would deal a significant blow to the Lightning’ penalty kill unit and to their overall forward depth.
On the flip side, Killorn being chosen by Vegas would open up $4.450-million in cap space that the Lightning could then use on long-term extensions for Jonathan Drouin and Tyler Johnson. A potential decision between Killorn and Namestnikov would be a very difficult choice; a legitimate case can be made for either player. However, given that Namestnikov is both three years younger and two-million dollars cheaper per season than his elder teammate, Killorn seems more likely to be exposed in the expansion draft.
On the defensive side, candidates for expansion protection are much less obvious. Veteran Braydon Coburn and former first round draft choice Slater Koekkoek are likely the front-runners, but Jake Dotchin‘s recent ascent into a prominent role may add a new element to that discussion. Although he has yet to firmly establish an NHL role for himself, I would still suggest that Koekkoek will be the choice. His draft pedigree is solid and his ceiling as a potential top-four defenseman is something the Lightning can ill-afford to lose at this point, given their organization depth at the position. No matter which of these three blueliners is ultimately chosen as the final member of Tampa Bay’s protection list, I’d expect general manager Steve Yzerman to push hard for a major upgrade on the back-end this summer, either in free agency or via trade.
Final Two Protected:
1) Vladislav Namestnikov
2) Slater Koekkoek
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