It’s been reported by basically everyone that Bobby V is going to announce the starting rotation today. So, who do you think it is going to be? We know the top three…Lester, Beckett and Buchholz, but it’s the 4 and 5 starters which have us all wondering. The candidates still left for the last two spots are Daniel Bard, Felix Doubront, Alfredo Aceves and Aaron Cook.
Here is my prediction of the starting 5:
Lester
Beckett
Buchholz
Bard
Doubront
Bard: I think that while he hasn’t had the perfect Spring, you have to give him an honest shot to start. When the Sox signed Bailey, it seemed like they were saying that they didn’t see Bard in the closer role…and he said he wanted to start. IMO, his stuff is good enough to start…to be a number 4 or number 5. He hasn’t has the best Spring and his ERA is larger than I would like (6.57 ERA) however his ERA has never really been low during ST and that hasn’t translated to high ERAs during the season. Additionally, he is someone who we know can do well if and when we need to send him back to the pen if Dice-K returns and is back in the rotation.
Doubront: He’s shown himself off so well this Spring. He came into camp last year overweight and then spent the whole season either struggling or being injured. This year was a 180 degree difference. I think he is going to be a better starter than he will be coming out of the pen. His ERA in Spring has been 2.70 and only given up 5 runs in the 4 games he has pitched in. When Andrew Miller went on the DL, in my mind Douby became a show in to make the rotation.
Aceves: Of all the pitchers, he’s had the best Spring. No doubt. However, I still put him in the pen. One, our bullpen is much weaker this year than it has been in the past, so I think we NEED him there. Papelbon is gone. Bard will probably be starting. I think Bailey will be okay, but he’s no Papelbon. I’m not sold on Melancon at all. Albers is Albers. Morales has been injured this Spring. Bowden is good, but never been truly major league tested. Etc, etc, etc. Aces is a guy who can pitch in multiple roles. He can be the long relief guy, he can be a late inning guy, he can make spot starts. He is so versatile that putting him in the rotation actually takes away a lot of what makes him so valuable. Additionally, when a pitcher goes down…he is there to help out when needed. It’s a hard, sad thing that in my opinion Aceves is just too good to not be put in the pen. He had one bad outing in Spring Training and other than that, he’s been locked in. Even so, I would regrettably send him to the pen.
Cook: He’s looked decent this Spring, but I’d have him start the season in Pawtucket. In comparison to the other options, I just can’t see him making the cut. His ERA is a staggering 1.93 this Spring, I just don’t think he has the innings needed to even be considered. Cook has a lot of value though if he can keep himself healthy. He, like Andrew Miller last year, has an opt out date of May 1st if he doesn’t make the major league club. Depending how he pitches in Pawtucket, that might be a problem we have to deal with down the line since if he was released he would easily be snatched up on waivers.
Speaking of Andrew Miller, he’s starting the season the DL with a hamstring strain. When it comes time for him to come off the DL…and if he’s pitched well aka not walking everyone, we’ll have to have a conversation about him as well.
And as I mentioned above, if and when Dice-K is back and healthy, you’d have to assume he would make him way into the rotation. Word is he is going to be ready in June and that his rehab from Tommy John surgery is going very well.
So that is my take on who should make the rotation and why. Thankfully it’ll not be my call and it’ll be interesting to see who Bobby V and Ben select.
Oh…and who do I think will get the 25th roster spot? The options are Pedro Ciriaco, Nate Spears, Jason Repko and Mauro Gomez. Ciriaco has had a great Spring in terms of his batting average. Many people think he’ll make the cut. However, I’m gonna go with Repko. The player is only going to be on the 25 man until Carl Crawford comes off the DL, so I’d rather have an OFer. Additionally, I’m a firm believer looking at his career statistics that Ciriaco’s stats are an anomaly not something we would see during the season. So, Repko’s my man and my second choice would be Spears.
BTW…if all of these predictions turn out to be very wrong, I’m going with this being an April Fools Joke. Just lettin’ all y’all know.
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