Joe’s note: For this piece, I’m basically going to look at a lot of draft history with a few of the familiar faces with the Bills. I’m not going to dive into which prospect is better because I don’t follow college football and anything I mention about a certain player is just me stealing it from someone else.
1) I keep changing my damn mind when it comes to where the Bills can go. About 7 weeks ago, I tweeted out there’s no way the Bills don’t take a WR at 10. Of course that was stupid for me to tweet out as an absolute. Right now I’m between WR, DB, and LB being a dark horse. The Bills can go anywhere at this point and nothing would shock me unless its RB.
2) If it were up to me, I would go WR at 10. I’m a passing kind of guy and I think giving Tyrod as many weapons as possible would be the best thing to do. Additionally, I’m not exactly sold on Holmes/Brown as being #2 WRs here and Sammy Watkins health is a big question mark for me. The Bills haven’t picked a WR within the first five rounds of the draft since Sammy Watkins was picked in 2014 and the only WR left on the roster from that selection is Sammy.
3) I’m not going to pretend to be some sort of football system sage. I have probably a slightly above average football schematics IQ. I’m not really sure how we can read the McDermott tea leaves when it comes to the types of players and even scheme he’s going to want. McDermott is from the Jim Johnson knowledge tree where basically his defenses blitzed the crap out of people while having their CBs play press or man-to-man coverage. It was kind like what the 4-3 version of Rex’s defense if I could snap judge it. Then in Carolina, they played primarily a zone defense that didn’t blitz as much (23rd in 2013). Then your defensive coordinator, Leslie Frasier, is like one of the original G’s in the cover 2 defense. Oh, and McDermott hasn’t really said what type of defense he wants. Basically, we got a lot of different backgrounds that could go into what type of defense he wants and it is kind of hard for me to gage what he wants exactly.
4) McDermott is a big Andy Reid disciple and as someone who loves trying to connect dots with history, I decided to look at some of Reid’s picks with the Eagles. From 1999-2012, the Eagles selected a WR or DB within the first two rounds 10 times, but only once did they go DB in the first round (Lito Sheppard) and just 2 times they went WR (Jeremy Maclin and Freddie Mitchell). Between those positions, they drafted high, but mostly it was done in the 2nd round (5-WRs and 4 DBs). In other words, while DB/WR has been a big mock draft talking point, but McDermott’s mentor didn’t go balls to the wall at that position when it came to 1st round selections. Additionally, if you go to his Carolina years, the Panthers didn’t select a DB in the first round and only selected 2 DBs within rounds 2 and 3 from 2011-2016. And for WR, they only picked ONE WR within the first 3 rounds during those years.
5) LB is one of those positions that hasn’t been talked about enough here. The Bills have two LBs who currently have question marks. Ragland is coming off a torn ACL and we have zero idea what they have there. Preston Brown is entering his last year of his rookie deal and everyone seems to think he won’t fit. Lorenzo Alexander is more of a guy I want rushing the passer and the idea of him in coverage doesn’t sit well with me. Basically, the LB core a giant question mark and if the Bills weren’t worse at DB/WR, we’d be hearing more about this. Now two things to keep in mind if we are doing the history lesson: While in Carolina, the Panthers drafted 2 LBs in the first round (Shaq Thompson/Luke Kuechly). By comparison, you’d have to go waaaaaay back to 1987 to find the last time the Bills picked a LB in the first round. So, you have a position that’s kind of due AND your coach is coming from a team that selected two LBs in the first round within a 4-year span.
6) Could we see a back-to-back-to-back DB selections? I know that sounds crazy, but McDermott did say this is a deep defensive back class and he was on the Eagles staff that picked 3 DBs from rounds 1-3 in 2002. Like Buddy Nix said, you can’t have enough CBs and the Bills aren’t deep there. Joe B. had a piece on how McDermott’s CBs were pretty big size at Carolina. Now, while with the Eagles as the DC in 2009/2010, he had smaller CBs like Asante Samuel (5’10), Quintin Mikell (5’10), and Ellis Hobbs (5’9). Earlier Reid/Johnson guys like Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard were just 5’10 during the 2000s. Now, when McDermott left for Carolina, the Eagles got bigger CBs in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (6’2) and Nnamdi Asomugha (6’3). So, again, we are crossing the streams when it comes to trying to figure out the types of CBs he may want based on where he’s been.
7) In terms of WRs, Andy Reid always seemed to have the fast and shifty guys like DeSean Jackson, Freddie Mitchell, Jeremy MaClin, and Reggie Brown. Interesting enough, none of those guys were over 6 foot tall. Of course, McDermott is not calling the offensive plays and that’s where Dennison comes in and there’s a bit of a different style there. While Dennison does come from the Bill Walsh family tree where Shanahan and Reid are close to each other on there, directly or indirectly, if you look at the WRs he had from Denver to Houston, they were bigger size guys. Javon Walker (6’3), Brandon Marshall (6’4), Demaryius Thomas (6’4), DeAndre Hopkins (6’1), Devier Posey (6’1), and Andre Johnson (6’3). Mike Williams and Corey Davis are the tallest at 6’3 and 6’2 while John Ross is 5’10.
8) Everyone wants the Bills to trade down. Seriously, of all the years I’ve watched the NFL draft, can you recall when a team was taken to task for trading down in the 1st round? Everyone loves when a team gets extra picks. In terms of history here, we all know Whaley loves dealing. Trade ups have been his thing since Watkins/Ragland. In terms of what the Eagles did, they traded up or down in the 1st round SEVEN times from 2003-2012. Five of those trades were via trading up in the draft. That seems pretty excessive when it comes to wheeling and dealing. As for the Panthers, they didn’t trade any of their first round picks.
9) I’m not sure where I heard it, but someone from the Bills mentioned they plan on playing a lot of 2-TE offense.
[Editor’s note: it was Tyrod, during their end of vet mini-camp interview]At this point, I have zero idea who the hell is the TE opposite Charles Clay. I’m pretty sure he’s slow, sucks and can block. Now, if we are keeping with the theme of looking back at McDermott’s Eagles days, they did have a nice 1-2 punch With Chad Lewis and LJ Smith for a few years. They actually had Chad Lewis first (3-time pro bowler) and they decided to draft LJ Smith in the 2nd round after Lewis made the pro bowl. The Panthers had Greg Olsen, who’s a top 10 TE, and yet they selected Devin Funchess (TE/WR) in the 2nd round in 2015. While in Houston, Dennison had a 1-2 punch with Owen Daniels and Joel Dreessen at TE and the duo combined for over 100 catches (62 and 41) in 2012. So we aren’t talking about a history of Robert Royal and Derek Schouman as double trouble at TE over here. So even with Clay in the fold, this could open the door for OJ Howard if he falls to #10. I’d totally be down for OJ if he’s there. I’ve fantasized about the Bills having a legit 2-TE offense that resembles what NE has.
10) After putting together my list of 6 degrees of separation between McDermott and Dennison, I’m still puzzled where they can go. Everything is on the table and I have to make a decision here. I’m going to stick with my gut from my QB piece from Tuesday and stick with the idea that McDermott is going to stick to defense in the 1st round. It is what has got him to the dance and I just feel most coaches want to stick with the side of the ball they know best. To me, I can’t get it out of my head how that between McDermott’s time with the Eagles and Panthers, they drafted just ONE DB in the first round. That’s a hell of a long trend there.
Additionally, the Panthers let Josh Norman go and even when the defense went to hell, did McDermott try and keep Gilmore? Absolutely not. Consider how since 2000, 10 LBs have won defensive rookie of the year with six of them being ones who didn’t get that award by getting sacks as an OLB in 3-4. One of those LBs happens to be one who McDermott coached in Carolina and they still drafted another LB three years later.
That’s where I am going. I think Bills go LB and Haason Reddick is their guy. [Drops mic]
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