Thomas Pannone and Indians Deep Pitching Depth

As it currently sits, the Cleveland Indians pitching staff has several peripheral stats that are not matching up to its final performances. Stats like xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching which are the things pitchers solely control) say their results should be better. Their HR/FB and BABIP both seem unsustainably high, but they’ve allowed a lot of hard contact, so maybe there’s some issues to address.

The Indians already have Mike Clevinger in Corey Kluber’s spot as the ace recovers on the DL with some back discomfort. Ryan Merritt, Adam Plutko and Shawn Morimando (probably in that order) sit at AAA Columbus as next in line starting options, but we knew the Indians rotation’s window wasn’t going to be at it’s peak forever. Eventually they’ll need to plug in some other pitching options and they’ve done a good job recently at not having to fill the void with free agents and veteran rebounds.

So, what prospect options do they have long term or even possibly as trade bait this year? Aside from the obvious Triston Mckenzie, who should be off limits in trade talks unless there’s a long term, controllable Major League starter coming back, there are some interesting names.

The one name who has created a buzz early by not allowing an earned run (one unearned) in his first six starts spanning 33 ⅓ innings is Thomas Pannone. He hasn’t struck out less than six hitters in any start this year. At age 23, the left hander just hit AA for the first time. The Indians may have held him back at Low-A Lake County for 37 starts between 2015-16 because Pannone was originally going to be an outfielder then went to college to pitch and only pitched for a season in college. He did fairly well in Low-A through 37 starts, but then started 2017 in High-A Lynchburg again after posting a 1.65 ERA in 43 ⅔ innings upon his promotion last season. It is possible the Indians also had him repeat High-A initially because Pannone was set down because of a bit of a “dead arm” period where his velocity dropped into the low 80’s. Pannone only throws 88-92 as is, so a velocity drop is a huge issue for him.

But, with his impressive start to the season, he’s attracted some attention across prospect evaluators and writers. David Laurila of Fangraphs talked to him last month about the great start and he detailed some mechanical changes Pannone made to stop closing himself off. It’s allowed him to add a tick or two to his fastball, putting him in the up to 93 this year at times.

So the question is, has Pannone emerged as a future rotation candidate? He always had solid command and has a decent curve and change but profiled as a swingman type lefty. What kind of affect have his changes had?

He has only had one start at AA Akron as of this writing, so throwing out those numbers, you can see that Pannone did get a significant bump in both his ground ball and swinging strike rates.

There are two factors in play with Pannone’s performance. He is 23, which is on the older side for High-A and he’s just now getting his first taste of AA. On the other side of the coin, Pannone hasn’t been pitching long, because of his commitment to being a college outfielder, it’s possible his learning curve and ceiling could be different than that of a typical drafted college pitcher. The groundball rate in his first AA start was good and if it keeps up and the swinging strike rate gets into the double digits, Pannone might end up being a legitimate starting option above being a sixth or spot starter.

RHP Julian Merryweather is the next name below AAA, perhaps even ahead of Pannone, to think about. He took a real step forward in 2016 and is proving it again in 2017. Unlike Pannone and most of the Indians other pitching prospects, Merryweather is big, physical and can run his fastball up to 96. He also sports a 26.1 K% a very tidy 5.2 BB%, however just a 9.4% swinging strike rate, but a 49.5% groundball rate, suggesting despite his velocity, he doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses with it and his secondary offerings (curve, change) while promising, aren’t quite fully developed yet. At age 25 though, it wouldn’t hurt to see what he could do at AAA if there are innings for him.

RHP Shane Bieber had a 25.6% strikeout rate and 0.8% (yes, 0.8%) walk rate in 29 innings with Lake County before a promotion to Lynchburg. He has one walk in 41 innings. His 11.7% strikeout looked to be roughly in line with his strikeout rate, but Bieber is considered more of a command pitcher who throws a fastball 91-92 but doesn’t have a true out pitch, so his command is what has earned him his strikeouts so far.

RHP Aaron Civale falls into the same category of Bieber with maybe a tick more on his fastball and a good slider. He also has impeccable command. He has the better 14.4% swinging strike rate at Lake County this year to go with a 25.8 K% and 1.6 BB%. A lot of scouts feel Civale would be better served in the bullpen, but with his command and strikeout rate so far, the Indians will continue to let him work as a starter.

LHP Rob Kaminsky is also worth remembering, but he has only made one start in 2017 and is on the DL for the second straight year. LHP Juan Hillman was a highly regarded pitching prospect taken the same year as McKenzie with a little less upside, but a good floor. He had a good start to his first foray in affiliated ball but struggled at the end being injured or a little worn out. He’s been fine at Lake County this year, but has yet to take off. The same can be said for LHP Brady Aiken who was a high profile, first round pick but hasn’t shown the abilities of that to date. Matt Esparza and Brock Hartson are other interesting control first profiles to keep an eye on though neither have the performances or name recognition the former names on this list have.

Behind their AAA depth, the Indians have some guys who are names, have some upside, some potential quick movers, but a lot of guys who have a long way to go to prove they’re legitimate prospects or rotation options.