Clutch hitting and smart baserunning are extremely important if the Red Sox are going to repeat. As has been noted by many the loss of Jacoby Ellsbury is going to put a huge dent in the base stealing totals. The problem has gotten worse since Shane Victorino, who represented the only real threat, played little in spring training and started the season on the DL. Any prolonged absence by Victorino will almost erase the steal game since, despite a near-20 BS average, Dustin Pedroia is not a real running threat.
In the absence of base-stealing, the Sox are going to have to do the small things. For example, in the Baltimore opener the Townies put two men on to start the second. When Xander Bogearts drilled a drive to left, Mike Carp wandered off second and couldn’t tag up. AJ Pierzynski followed with a deep fly to center, and Carp should have scored. In a 2-1 loss, a play like this has huge importance.
There is no published statistic that I know of for average number of men left in scoring position. Monday’s game saw 10 stranded there, with the most telling failures by Pierzynski in the eighth and Jackie Bradley Jr in the ninth, both with two aboard. John Farrell was also criticized for pulling Mike Napoli for a pinch runner and letting Pierzynski face tough lefty Brian Matusz with Jonny Gomes on the bench.
My prediction is that with Ellsbury gone and power hitting a bit questionable, (though three homers were hit in the first two games), contests will be closer and moves by Farrell will be scrutiunized more carefully. Of course, if the pitching continues to be strong, the pressure on the skipper could decrease a bit. The rotation, however, still has some questions. Will Felix Doubront continue to be erratic, or blossom into the star the Sox have hoped to see? How many starts will Clay Buchholz make before his first injury? In the bullpen, can Koji Uehara continue his incredible dominance?
In his first year, Farrell’s moves almost always worked. This year it might not be so easy for the John Wayne of the dugout.
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