Continuing on with our look back at our Central Division Showdown series, we take on the Kansas City Royals, who the Indians will play in KC for a three game set this weekend. The original piece, in gray italics, was written March 8th by Michael Melaragno.
ROTATION
The Royals ranked 12th in the American League with a 4.67 ERA from the starting rotation. Duffy, a 28-year-old lefthander, emerged as the club’s ace, finishing 12–3 with a 3.51 ERA in 26 starts after beginning 2016 as a reliever. His continued development as a front-of-the-rotation star will be critical. Duffy is still the Royals ace with a 3.54 ERA and 1.5 fWAR. Kennedy, who is entering the second season of a five-year, $70 million deal, also is locked into the rotation, along with veteran lefthander Jason Vargas. Kennedy pitched to expectations in a solid Kansas City debut, while Vargas has been limited to 12 games during the last two seasons after Tommy John surgery in August 2015. When healthy, he’s been solid for the Royals, going 16–12 with a 3.68 ERA as a 2014 free-agent signing. Vargas has been the biggest surprise for the Royals this year and possibly the AL Central. He has a 2.39 ERA, but doesn’t strike out many and has given up quite a few home runs, so how long this will last is very questionable. Vargas’ return fills Edinson Volquez’s hole in the rotation after he signed with the Marlins, but the bigger question is how the team replaces Ventura. A pair of former Cubs, Jason Hammel and Travis Wood, were each signed to two-year deals prior to the start of spring training. Hammel won a career-high 15 games last season, but was left off of the World Series champions’ postseason roster and boasts a career ERA of 4.42 over 11 seasons. Wood will get a chance to start after serving as a bullpen jack-of-all-trades for Cubs manager Joe Maddon last season. Hammel has been the Royals worst starter and Wood has been exclusively used out of the bullpen and been absolutely terrible. Veteran righthander Chris Young and lefthander Matt Strahm, who posted a 1.23 ERA in 21 relief appearances after a late-July call-up, also will battle for those open rotation spots, with lefthander Mike Minor as a dark horse. The correct answer was Nate Karns. Nate Karns.
Advantage: Indians, although KC has been better than expected.
BULLPEN
The Royals’ relief corps was the backbone of back-to-back pennants, but the glory days of HDH when a relay from Kelvin Herrera to Davis to Greg Holland dominated the final three innings are a fleeting memory. Holland sat out 2016 after Tommy John surgery, and Davis, who was set to make $10 million this season, was traded away. The Royals also cut ties with former No. 1 overall pick Luke Hochevar among other bullpen losses. Herrera, who owns a 182 ERA+ the last three seasons, including a 2.75 ERA with 86 strikeouts against 12 walks and 57 hits in 72 innings last season, is the new closer, a role he’s expected to flourish in after saving a career-high 12 games last season with Davis sidelined. He has all of the Royals 12 saves, a K/9 near 10 although a less than impressive ERA of 3.68. Unless he wins a rotation spot, Strahm and veteran righthander Joakim Soria project as the club’s setup men. Soria has been incredible, Strahm less so. Former starter Mike Minor has been the Royals top reliever, however. Soria, a 2016 free agent who signed a three-year, $25 million deal , was a disappointment in his return to Kansas City, going 5–8 with a 4.05 ERA.
Advantage: Indians
MIDDLE INFIELD
For the second time in three seasons, Escobar started all 162 games at shortstop for the Royals in 2016. He set modest career highs with seven home runs and 55 RBIs last season, but he also had the fourth-lowest OPS among qualified batters (.642). The 30-year-old shortstop has slashed .259/.293/.335 the last two seasons, but he remains a solid defensive player at a premium position. We like to talk about Michael Martinez as one of the worst players in baseball history, but at least he never played ever day. Escobar is currently hitting .180/.207/.232, yet still hitting lead-off for the old school Royals who don’t believe in statistics. Kansas City is hopeful Raul Mondesi can emerge as the everyday second baseman. He’s a slick-fielding speedster and the heir apparent at shortstop, but he’ll only find a regular spot if his bat comes around. Or not. Mondesi is currently hitting .095/.156/.167 and is one of six Royals to be worth -5 runs offensively. If not, Whit Merrifield gets the nod at second base after a solid rookie season. Merrifield has not only been the Royals starter, but has been the team’s top offensive performer.
CORNERS
Moustakas and Hosmer served as linchpins for the Royals’ title-winning youth movement, but there’s no chance both will remain in Kansas City beyond next season. Moustakas hit well last season, including a career-best .500 slugging percentage, in 27 games before suffering a season-ending torn ACL in his right knee May 22 after a collision with Gordon. The Royals hope he can recapture the All-Star form he first flashed in 2015 when he slashed .284/.348/.470 with 34 doubles, 22 home runs and 82 RBIs. Moose has been solid and leads the team with 13 home runs. Hosmer, who isn’t an elite fielder despite a Gold Glove reputation, also regressed last season at the plate despite obliterating his career highs with 25 home runs and 104 RBIs. The Hoz has been pretty average, but is hitting about .300 nonetheless.
OUTFIELD
The Royals’ outfield defense is stout with Gordon, Cain and Paulo Orlando from left to right field. Cain had emerged as a star in recent years, posting a 118 OPS+ with a .304/.351/.447 slash line in 2014-15. He averaged 47 extra-base hits and 28 steals during that span and also plays sparkling defense at a premium position. However, Cain missed time with hamstring and wrist injuries last season, which tamped down his production. Cain remains the most important position player on the Royals roster, mostly due to his defense. Injuries also derailed Gordon the last two seasons, including lengthy absences due to groin and wrist injuries. The Royals need Gordon to revert to the player who slashed .281/.359/.450 from 2011-15 after he was a shockingly bad .220/.312/.380 last season. Not happening yet. Gordon has been KC’s second worse hitter after Escobar and terrible in nearly every facet of the game. The newly acquired Soler could poach time in right field from Orlando, if first base coach Rusty Kuntz can work a miracle with Soler’s sub-par defense. Soler hasn’t been that bad defensively, but is one of 8 hitters batting under .200 for KC with at least 50 PA. Jorge Bonifacio has been the regular starting right fielder and has been the team’s second best offensive producer.
CATCHING
Behind the plate, the Royals have a four-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner in Salvador Perez, who added his first career Silver Slugger last season. Perez struck out far too much in 2016 and has slashed .256/.286/.421 the last three seasons, but he remains an elite catch-and-throw guy. Drew Butera is Perez’s backup. Perez is still having a pretty good season, but Yan Gomes has been better. Butera has been better than Roberto Perez by a mile.
DH/BENCH
Soler projects as the primary DH, but regulars with an injury history, think Perez, Moustakas, Gordon and Cain, could occasionally DH to save wear and tear without sacrificing lineup punch. Utility outfielder Jarrod Dyson was rumored to be on the off-season trade block. Cheslor Cuthbert can play anywhere on the infield except shortstop and proved valuable in extended action as Moustakas’ replacement. Veteran Brandon Moss also will get the opportunity to carve out a role, as his left-handed power (28 home runs in 413 AB with St. Louis last season) could be an asset off the bench or at DH. One of those hitters alluded to earlier for hitting under .200, Moss has been the Royals regular DH. He’s been heating up as of late, however, and has nine home runs on the season.
Normal attrition has worn away quite a few of the 2015 World Series Royals veterans. Kansas City will likely open the 2017 season with no more than 13 survivors from their World Championship team. However, adding three Cubs players with 2016 World Series rings will yield around 16 players with recent championship experience.
Offensive Advantage: Indians
Overall Advantage: Indians
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