Rotation Changes the Celtics Should Consider

After Sunday’s game against the Spurs, Brad Stevens hinted that more changes to the rotation are to come, but that his starting lineup would not change for the most part.

Here’s Stevens after the game:

“We know who the guys are who our best players are. There are moments in the course of a game where, if you’re not playing well, we’ve got to go to our bench. Maybe I can consider doing that a lot more, or earlier, or whatever the case may be.”

Stevens is not talking about making significant changes, but rather small tweaks to his substitution patterns. While it is still too early to tell which 5-man lineups are effective and which ones are not, Stevens can certainly make judgments based on two or three man combinations on the floor. This exercise is what coaches do all the time in attempt to maximize each player’s performance. Stevens will take a look at his rotations and try to determine which players play well with each other, and which players’ skills clash while they are on the court together.

Let’s take a look at an easy example. Rajon Rondo is the Celtics best player. He is one of the best passers in the game and does a phenomenal job getting into the paint and creating for his teammates. His biggest weakness is his perimeter shooting. Ideally, Rondo should be in a lineup with guys who stretch the floor and shoot the ball well from deep. This is why Rondo and Evan Turner do not work well together on the floor. Turner is most effective with the ball in his hands, as he has the ability to take his man off the dribble and pull up from mid-range or create for his teammates (5.3 assists per 36 minutes). Turner, like Rondo, struggles shooting from beyond the 3 point line. Their strengths and weaknesses overlap. When Rondo and Turner are in together, only one of them can handle the ball at a time, meaning the other is most likely spotting up behind the 3 point line. Of the two, the player who does not have the ball is not playing to his strength while also having his major weakness, outside shooting, highlighted. This is why the Rondo/Turner combination is -15.3 points on the season.

What Have the Celtics Rotations Looked Like So Far?

Now that Tyler Zeller is starting, the Celtics key bench players are Brandon Bass, Evan Turner, Kelly Olynyk and Marcus Smart when he returns. One player out of the next tier of Marcus Thorton (whose minutes will most likely dip upon Smart’s return), Phil Pressey and Gerald Wallace will see about 10-15 minutes a game to fill out the Celtics 10 man rotation, while James Young and Dwight Powell will be used very sparingly for now.

A trend I have noticed that Stevens likes to go with is playing Jared Sullinger with the second unit. Stevens went with a lineup of Turner, Bradley, Thorton, Sullinger and Olynyk to begin the 2^nd quarter in Sunday’s loss and this lineup went on a 16-6 run before anyone was subbed out. Similar lineups have served the Celtics well early on in games. However, where the bench lineups are failing the Celtics are at the beginning of the 4^th quarter, when Stevens typically rests Rondo and Green.

While much has been made about the Celtics late game execution, they often are getting killed early on in the 4^th, especially in the last few games. Against the Blazers, the Celtics entered the 4^th quarter tied, but trailed by 8 just two minutes later when Rondo entered the game. Against Chicago, the Celtics 6 point lead heading into the 4^th completely evaporated and turned into a 3 point deficit when Rondo came in with 8 minutes to go. Similarly, the Celtics deficit went from 5 to 8 with Rondo on the bench to start the 4^th on Sunday.

So what can Brad Stevens do to combat the early 4^th quarter struggles? Change his substitution patterns.

Celtics Rotation and Substitution Patterns

Here is an example of what my ideal Celtics rotation would be. Each position adds to 48 minutes. Some players play multiple positions. Keep in mind that positions are not rigid. For example, Sullinger can play center with Bass at power forward. This is just to give us an idea of how much each player should play given the rest of the team’s personnel. This rotation is very close to what Stevens already uses.

Total Minutes for each player in my model compared to their current season averages:

Rondo: 35 compared to 33

Bradley: 29 compared to 31

Jeff Green: 32 compared to 34

Jared Sullinger: 30 equal to 30

Tyler Zeller: 24 compared to 15

Evan Turner: 18 compared to 21

Marcus Smart: 19 compared to 20

Marcus Thorton: 10 compared 15

Brandon Bass: 20 compared to 19

Kelly Olynyk: 22 compared to 26

The only major difference is Zeller’s minutes, but it seems that Stevens is going to use Zeller more given that he is now in the starting lineup. Thorton, Turner and Bradley’s minutes are inflated on the year with Smart missing about 10 games. They will see their playing time reduced when Smart returns.

Now, here is a model mapping my Celtics substitution patterns. Again, this will never be followed to a T, it is simply a model that will give you an idea of what types of lineups the Celtics should be highlighting with their substitution patterns while trying to solve the 4^th quarter issue. Stevens has to make adjustments during the game based on matchups, foul trouble, who is playing well or poorly, etc. However, there are some important changes here that Stevens should consider making. I will explain my reasoning afterwards.

START OF GAME: Rondo, Bradley, Green, Sullinger, Zeller

First sub-8min left: Turner for Green, Bass for Zeller, Smart for Rondo

Next sub- 3min left: Thorton for Bradley, Zeller for Sullinger, Olynyk for Bass

2^nd QUARTER: Rondo, Thorton, Green, Olynyk, Zeller

First sub-8 min left: Bradley for Thorton, Bass for Zeller

Next sub-4 min left: Sullinger for Olynyk, Smart for Bradley

Next sub-2 min left: Turner for Green

3^rd QUARTER: Rondo, Bradley, Green, Sullinger, Zeller

First Sub-6min left: Turner for Green, Olynyk for Zeller

Next Sub-3min left: Smart for Bradley, Thorton for Rondo, Bass for Sullinger

4^th QUARTER: Turner, Smart, Green, Bass, Zeller

First sub-10 min left: Rondo for Turner, Olynyk for Zeller

Next sub-8min left: Sullinger for Bass, Bradley for Smart

Next sub-5 min left: Zeller for Olynyk

Once again, a coach will never follow this strict of a plan during a game. The purpose is to show: a) substitution patterns, primarily at the start of the 2^nd and 4^th quarters. b) lineups and combinations that work well together and c) how to solve the 4^th quarter issues

Here are a few substitution patterns I tried to emphasize:

• Jeff Green plays with the 2^nd unit a little bit more, including to start the 4^th– Green is the Celtics leading scorer, and the Celtics have struggled to score to start the 4^th Having Green in the game to start the 4^th would allow the Cs to run a few sets for him to drive to the basket or post up on the low block.
• Rajon Rondo enters the game early in the 4^th quarter- You need your best players on the floor during the most crucial period, so rather than giving Rondo a major rest to start the 4^th, manage his minutes in the 1^st half so that he can play more down the stretch.
• 2^nd unit players play more earlier in the game- This is what Stevens was talking about in his quote. He may have to go to his bench earlier. The second unit has played well of late, but has still struggled early in the 4^th. By going to his bench earlier in the game, Stevens will be able to play Rondo, Green, and Sullinger more in the 4^th.

Here are a few lineups I either tried to emphasize or avoid:

• Green/Turner-Out of all the Celtics 2-man combinations that have played at least 100 minutes together, the Green/Turner combination is by far the worst, at a dreadful +/- of -18.2.
• Turner/Sullinger-Out of all the Celtics 2-man combinations, only 2 have a +/- that is positive. Both include Evan Turner. Take that for what it’s worth, but Turner is certainly deserving of his minutes. He plays particularly well with Sullinger, which is a combination I tried to highlight.
• Rondo/Green-Jeff Green, like most Celtics players, is a much better player when Rajon Rondo is on the court. However, it is important for the Celtics to play their leading scorer in lineups where he is most effective. Green shoots 45% with Rondo on the floor against 39% with Rondo off.
• Zeller/Sullinger-The Zeller/Sullinger combination has been a good one for the Cs, and the pair needs to see more time together. Sullinger is pretty consistent with every other frontcourt pairing. The only frontcourt pairing I tried to avoid was Bass/Zeller, as neither stretch the floor beyond the 3 point line (and they are -11.4 for the year).
• Surround Rondo with shooters- It’s no secret that Rondo is great at getting into the lane, so it is logical to surround him with at least 3 guys who can stretch the floor in order to open up driving lanes. This meant limiting, as best I could, Rondo’s minutes with Smart and Turner.

At the end of the day, the Celtics will be making rotation changes in order to address their most prominent issue, the 4^th quarter, in addition to trying to play certain lineups together while avoiding others. While Brad Stevens won’t follow these guidelines exactly, I expect him to use the same general concepts I used: go to the bench sooner, keep Rondo, Green and Sullinger well rested for the fourth, and play lineups that have shown they can have success together.