From the makeup of the Celtics current roster, it’s clear that there are more deals to be made for Danny Ainge and the Boston front office. Guys like Brandon Bass, Jeff Green and Brandan Wright will all go through the rumor mill between now and the time the trade deadline passes in late February.
A less examined aspect of Boston’s potential moves is who they should target moving forward. I’ve identified a few players who the Celtics would have a realistic shot at, either before the trade deadline or in free agency this summer, starting with Phoenix Suns point guard Goran Dragic.
Dragic and the Celtics have not been connected up to this point, and to our knowledge the team is not currently pursuing him. However, the lefty guard would fit nicely with this Celtics roster and address a number of the team’s needs. Dragic should be a top target for the Celtics this offseason, and they may want to consider making a move for him at the trade deadline.
Why Dragic Fits
For those Celtics fans that haven’t seen a lot of Goran Dragic, this guy can hoop. Here’s a good stat: Last season, Dragic was the only player in the league who averaged at least 20 points per game while shooting of 50% from the floor and over 40% from 3-point range. The only other players who came close were Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki. Dragic is rounding into form after a tough start to the season and is once again scoring at a nice clip (16.7ppg) while being efficient.
Dragic’s talents fit the Celtics needs and personnel very nicely. Marcus Smart is not yet prepared to take on the role of a point guard who handles the ball for large portions of the game. The problem is, without adding another player, the Celtics don’t have a lot of other options. Dragic has proven that he can fit nicely next to another small guard, and there are clear similarities between what Smart projects to be and Goran’s current backcourt mate, Eric Bledsoe, including the fact that neither are known for their shooting.
Dragic makes up for the fact that Smart is not a great perimeter shooter. At the same time, Smart’s presence addresses Dragic’s biggest weakness, his defense. Smart could guard the better of the opposing team’s guards, leaving Dragic with an easier matchup. Dragic has struggled containing the penetration of elite NBA point guards, a weakness that Smart minimizes.
Dragic is also great in the pick and roll, something that Marcus Smart did not run a whole lot of in college and is still learning at the NBA level. Dragic is one of the top pick and roll guards in the league with his ability to shoot and penetrate (shooting 73% within 3 feet). A Dragic-Smart backcourt would allow the Celtics to have two guys capable of penetrating and creating for their teammates, emulating Dragic and Bledsoe’s success in Phoenix. The pair is +3.7 points per 100 possessions this year and was +10.2 last year.
Dragic’s most successful pick and roll partner last year was pick-and-pop big man Channing Frye, who is now with the Orlando Magic. Through February 28th last year, when the NBA released some pick-and-roll data via their SportsVU player tracking, Dragic and Frye led the league with 1.30 points per pick-and-roll possession. Dragic helped Frye get clean looks, and Frye opened up driving lanes for Dragic to penetrate.
The Celtics happen to have two young post players who are capable of playing a similar role to Frye. Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger have both made great strides since last season and have now proven that they are capable 3-point shooters. The conversation has shifted from can Olynyk/Sullinger shoot, to how can we get these guys some more open looks. Dragic has excelled with pick-and-pop guys in the past and would help elevate the play of both Sullinger and Olynyk, two of the Celtics most important building blocks.
Finally, the 28-year-old point guard fits what Brad Stevens wants to do on offense: space, pace and read and react. Dragic excels in the up-tempo game the Suns play and would make a seamless transition to Boston’s fast pace strategy. He is an intelligent player who would adapt quickly to Stevens’ read and react system. Dragic’s penetration and ability to create would add another dimension that the offense is sorely lacking at the moment, increasing each player’s production.
The Celtics need a guy who can put the ball in the basket and create for others, and Dragic does both. Signing a guy that compliments the team’s young core, particularly Smart, Olynyk and Sullinger, would allow them to develop into the roles they can best succeed in. It would also help the Celtics win basketball games, which, of course, is the end goal.
Is Dragic Obtainable?
After establishing Dragic’s fit with the Cs, the next question to address is whether or not he is realistically obtainable. While the answer is yes, that assertion should not be confused with saying the Celtics are likely to get Goran Dragic or even that he’s interested in coming to Boston. No one can answer where Dragic may end up at this point, as he has made it clear he is keeping his options open.
Why would Phoenix let Dragic go? As NBA Insider Ken Berger addressed, the Suns are in a bit of a quagmire:
“Multiple teams already are inquiring as to what it would take to break up the Suns’ three-guard rotation of Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas — with Dragic, a prospective free agent, garnering the most attention. Coincidentally, executives have gotten the impression that Dragic is the one Phoenix would most like to keep if they do, indeed, decide to make a move.”
I’m sure the Suns fully intend to re-sign Dragic, but at what price? According to Hoopshype.com, the Suns have over $20 million already committed to Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas through the 2018 season, with Bledsoe also committed through 2019. This puts Phoenix in a tough spot, according to Howard Beck:
“Phoenix has committed $70 million over five years to Bledsoe and $27 million over four years to Thomas. Bledsoe and Thomas will earn a combined $20.5 million next season. Dragic, an All-NBA third-team selection, could command $15 million a year or more on the open market in July.
Would the Suns pay three point guards a combined $35 million, more than half of the projected cap? Would they let Dragic walk away for nothing?”
The answer is no, they wouldn’t let Dragic go for nothing and it is highly unlikely they pay him big money given the fact the team may be in the lottery and has other needs. The Suns are going to try like hell to trade Thomas or Bledsoe by the trade deadline, but given the limited interest in each player during the offseason and the long term contracts Phoenix has committed to, they may be stuck with them unless they are willing to accept less than full value or sweeten the deal with a draft pick.
This could mean two things: 1) Dragic may become more available as the trade deadline approaches and 2) The Suns may not be willing to commit to him at the money he garners this offseason.
Enter the Boston Celtics (along with every other team with cap space this summer).
The Celtics Options
The Celtics have two options when it comes to Dragic, if they happen to be interested, as I believe they should be: Wait until the offseason to bid on his services or trade for him by the deadline and attempt to convince that while the climate is a little different from Phoenix, Boston would be a nice home.
Dragic will without a doubt have a number of suitors in free agency this summer, including teams like the Knicks, Lakers and Houston Rockets. The Celtics would be one of many teams in the running. This is why, depending on how the Celtics value Dragic, it may be worth looking into trading for him before the deadline.
Dragic’s opt out clause and ability to become a free agent at the end of the season will scare away many trade partners, or at least suppress his value on the trade market, and the Celtics should be wary of Dragic’s pending free agent status as well. That being said, few teams have the surplus of assets the Celtics do in the form of draft picks and expiring deals. Dragic’s current contract ($7.5M) would not be hard to trade for, and the Celtics could either absorb it with their trade exception or give Phoenix a couple of expiring contracts.
Before you say that a first round pick is too steep a price to give up for a guy who could walk at the end of the year, hear me out. Obtaining Dragic through a trade not only allows the Celtics to see how he fits in their system and convince him Boston would be a great place to sign his next contract, but, more importantly, it transfers his bird rights over to Boston.
Bird rights give the Celtics the inside track to signing Dragic in the offseason, allowing Danny Ainge to put together a more appealing contract. Bird rights may also keep one of Dragic’s likely landing spots, Houston, out of the running. Dragic has previously played in Houston and the Rockets have been rumored to be interested in the lefty guard. Berger called them “the team to watch,” regarding a potential Dragic trade and his free agency status.
However, Basketball Insiders says that Houston will only have $9.8M in cap room in a “best case” scenario that includes no Patrick Beverley, Corey Brewer, Josh Smith or Kostas Papanikolaou. Unless the Rockets make some changes to clear more cap space, I don’t see Dragic signing for less than $10M if the Celtics, Lakers and Knicks come knocking at $15M, especially considering this will likely be the biggest contract Dragic receives for the rest of his career. The best avenue for Houston to get Dragic is to trade for him. This way, they would be able to use his bird rights to go over the cap to sign him. If the Celtics are able to top Houston’s offer, they would put themselves in a much better position to sign the point guard this offseason by not only selling Boston but also by essentially blocking one of his more likely landing spots.
If the Celtics added Dragic today, I’d bet on them making the playoffs in the East. If Dragic is able to see the impact he can have on an up and coming team, in a system that fits him well, in a place that is willing to pay him what he’s worth, it may be enough for the Celtics to keep him on a long term deal. A trade of Dragic for a Celtics expiring contract and a first round pick means that Phoenix does not let him walk for nothing, and that the Celtics essentially turned Rajon Rondo into Goran Dragic, at least for the rest of this year. Given the fact that it’s unlikely the Celtics use all their picks in the next two years, it is at least an idea worth considering.
It is nice to dream, and at this point, that’s all this is. But if you’re a person who felt we should have signed Rondo to a max deal at the end of the year, here is a guy who fits the team better and addresses more of the Celtics needs than their former all-star point guard did. If you’re a guy who felt the max was too much to give Rondo, here is an all-star caliber point guard the Cs can potentially get for less than the max. It seems to me that the Celtics would be wise to put themselves in the best negotiating situation possible for a player like Goran Dragic this offseason.
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