Your Morning Dump…Where Ainge’s history as GM is quantified in baseball metrics

AINGEBB

AINGEBBEvery morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here… highlighting the big story line. Because there’s nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.

For this exercise, we’ll consider former, current or potential perennial NBA All-Stars a home run, go-to options a triple, front-end rotation players a double and other noteworthy contributors a single. Players packaged in trades that benefited the Celtics go down as a sacrifice, and picks still developing either or overseas or in the D-League will be walks for now. Everyone else is a strikeout.

Based on that model, we can determine Ainge’s on-base percentage (at what rate he identifies NBA talent), slugging percentage (the degree to which he succeeds in that regard) and on-base plus slugging (the combination of the two—or just how well he identifies big-time talent).

Throwing out this past June’s draft, since the jury is still out on Marcus Smart and James Young, let’s apply this method to the rest of Ainge’s draft picks since taking over the operation on May 9, 2003.

  • 1B: Ryan Gomes (2005: 50th); Leon Powe (2006: 49th)
  • 2B: Kendrick Perkins (2003: 27th); Delonte West (2004: 24th); Tony Allen (2004: 25th);Glen Davis (2007: 35th); Avery Bradley (2010: 19th); Jared Sullinger (2012: 21st); Kelly Olynyk (2013: 13th)
  • 3B: Al Jefferson (2004: 15th)
  • HR: Rajon Rondo (2006: 21st)
  • BB: Colton Iverson (2013: 53rd)
  • SAC: Marcus Banks (2003: 13th); Gerald Green (2005: 18th); E’Twaun Moore (2011: 55th)
  • K: Brandon Hunter (2003: 56th); Justin Reed (2014: 40th); Orien Greene (2005: 53rd);Gabe Pruitt (2007: 32nd); J.R. Giddens (2008: 30th); Bill Walker (2008: 47th); Semih Erden (2008: 60th); Lester Hudson (2009: 58th); Luke Harangody (2010: 52nd); JaJuan Johnson(2011: 27th); Fab Melo (2012: 22nd); Kris Joseph (2012: 51st)

Lottery (1-1, 2B, SAC): 1.000 OBP, 2.000 SLG, 3.000 OPS
Picks 15-30 (7-10, 5 2B, 3B, HR, SAC): .700 OBP, 1.700 SLG, 2.400 OPS
Round 2 (3-12, 2B, BB, SAC): .308 OBP, .333 SLG, .641 OPS
OVERALL (11-23, 7 2B, 3B, HR, BB, 3 SAC): .500 OBP, 1.000 SLG, 1.500 OPS

While Ainge’s production in the NBA draft dwarfs his career numbers for the Blue Jays (.220 BA, .264 OBP, .269 SLG, .533 OPS), it’s hard to gauge whether or not that 1.500 OPS in the lottery, latter half of the first round and Round 2 is any good in a basketball sense without comparing him to other GMs.

WEEI – Danny Ainge’s sabermetric manifesto

OK, I know that’s a lot of math for a morning read. The article actually goes on to rank a bunch of other GM’s across the NBA, and among them, Ainge ranks pretty high. Only John Paxson (Bulls) and Sam Presti (Thunder) rank higher, and we’re just now entering a period where Ainge will be getting chances to hit or miss on superstars. I guess recently, any given fan’s opinion on Danny as a GM would largely depend on how you viewed Rondo (and to a lesser extent, Green). A lot of people hated the idea of trading away the only piece we had that could attract talent, but the reasons behind trading Rondo may never fully be available to us.

The stage in the rebuild we’re entering now should really shape our opinion on Ainge, and thankfully, his track record so far has been pretty good when it comes to rebuilding. Ainge is clearly gutsy, but he’s also very clever and probably pretty manipulative. He’s got a good sense for opportunity, and history shows he knows how to capitalize on it.

Page 2: Olynyk out with a sprained ankle

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js    Apparently it’s the same ankle that Olynyk sprained last year, causing him to miss ten games. Looks like the Brandon Bass showcase will continue.

And finally, Deandre Jordan is still murdering rims:

//platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.jsHe caught that ball like 12 feet in the air and five feet from the rim…Jeezus.
The rest of the links:

Grantland – Stop calling Mike Conley Jr. underrated

CSNNE – Blakely NBA Power Rankings

CelticsBlog – Smart D

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