With the dog days now approaching of the NBA season, the Celtics will look to go into the year with some brand new rookies and a couple of intriguing veterans. The roster seems to be mostly set (though who knows what Trader Danny has up his sleeve) and the Celtics will be going in with a lot of clutter similar to last season. But they will have the continuity of a similar core to the one that finished 24-12. However, Stevens will guarantee play time for nobody with such an unbalanced roster, and will rely on the players to determine who will win the starting jobs. With an average age of 24 years, the Celtics will be expecting its young core to make some individual improvements as they approach their prime. Here’s my early prediction of who will end up starting for the Celtics.
Point guard
Marcus Smart
2014-15 statistics 7.9ppg, 3.1apg, 3.3rpg
When the Celtics took Smart with the 6th pick in the 2014 draft, it was because they wanted him to be the team’s next starting point guard, and hopefully a franchise cornerstone. Last season, Smart showed flashes of being that piece, even though he was hampered by an ankle injury. Stevens often made sure he was on the court with Evan Turner, which didn’t really allow him to get as many reps as some of the other rookies on losing teams did, but it did give him the experience of getting to play on a bigger stage.
With a new year, and healthier ankle, Smart will be looking to take over as the team’s main ball handler and distributor. During the summer league he showed an enhanced ability to run the pick and roll, get to the hoop, and an improved court vision. Expect him to play 30 or more minutes a game with the ball in his hands a lot more. If he commits himself to taking it to the hoop, and taking better shots from the perimeter, he could be in for a nice sophomore campaign.
2015-2016 Projection: 13.1ppg, 5.6apg, 3.5rpg
Shooting Guard
Avery Bradley
2014-15 Statistics: 13.9ppg, 1.8apg, 3.1rpg
I was tempted to put Hunter in this position, but the rookie is going to take some time to adjust to the NBA game, so until then we’ll go with Bradley. Last season, Bradley showed much of the same streaky shooting and decent defense, but he doesn’t bring much else to the game. At 24, he could still take his game to the next level, but I doubt he learned how to create for himself and others or drastically improve his shooting at the rim in one season. I think with guys like RJ Hunter, and Isaiah Thomas the Celtics will won’t give Bradley as much leeway as he’s had the previous two seasons if he doesn’t show great improvement. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t expect to see much more from his game then he’s already shown.
2015-2016 Statistics: 12.0ppg, 1.5apg, 2.8rpg
Small Forward
Jae Crowder
2014-15 Statistics: 7.7ppg, 1.1apg, 3.6rpg
Our first change in the starters will occur here where I believe Crowder will overtake Turner for the starting spot. With Smart set to take on full ball-handling duties the need to have Turner starting evaporates, clearing the way for Crowder to assume the starting role and form one of the strongest perimeter defensive units in the league. Crowder showed some playmaking abilities that went beyond his mediocre assist stat. But the main thing he’ll need to work on is shooting. Too many times last season, Crowder took contested long 2’s during crunch time that brought opposing teams back into games. With his big body, Crowder needs to make more of an effort to drive the ball to the hole where he can get to the line, or dump it off to a big. In 25 games with Dallas, Crowder was a 34.2% shooter from three, on only shooting 1.5 attempts per game. In 57 games in Boston, Crowder shot 28.2% on three attempts per game. He doubled his attempts, but his makes only went from 0.5 to 0.8 per game. This season we should expect him to either improve his shooting, or limit his shooting altogether. Based on Stevens systems however, I’m assuming that improving his shooting is the safer bet, and with a full camp in Boston with a new contract it wouldn’t be too far-fetched to assume it could happen.
2015-2016 projections: 13.8ppg, 2.5apg, 5.2rpg
Power Forward
Jared Sullinger
2014-15 Statistics: 13.3ppg, 7.6rpg, 2.3apg
After facing some stiff criticism from the media and fans over his weight it really looks like Sullinger has made the commitment to get in better shape this summer.
Y’all. I might be getting my first class ticket back on the Jared Sullinger hype train. pic.twitter.com/2Eh3vDCLTA
— Ubuntu (@Kunguuu) July 21, 2015
If Sullinger comes back to camp in the 250 to low 260 range his productivity will increase immensely. Sullinger is already a great rebounder with range that can stretch out to the 3, and ability to score in the post. Defense has usually been an issue for him because of his questionable lateral quickness, but with an improved body he could make strides in that field too and better use his 7’1 wingspan. With stiff competition in camp, and in a contract year, this could quite possibly be the year Jared Sullinger breaks out for a big season.
2015-2016 projection: 15.5ppg, 9.5rpg, 2.5apg
Center
Amir Johnson
2014-2015 statistics: 9.3ppg, 6.1rpg, 0.8bpg
Surprise, Surprise. With the glut at power forward you have to believe the Celtics were going to play at least one of those guys at the five, and my guess is it’s Johnson. In Toronto, Johnson played better when not sharing the floor with Jonas Valanciunas, and the transition to 5 will allow him to use his athleticism to easily get by slow-footed centers. Of course, he’ll struggle in the few games he faces legit centers that can actually score in the post, but on this roster he’s our best option at the center position so we’ll live with the consequences. In Stevens system, I expect Amir to be a frequent roll man and take a lot more perimeter shots than he ever has in Toronto. Don’t expect and gaudy numbers from him, but he’ll be an excellent glue guy that does a little of everything and provide another good defender to an already strong defensive unit.
2015-2016 projection: 10.0ppg, 7.5rpg, 1.2bpg
In the coming weeks, we’ll take a similar look at who moves to the bench, and who becomes a regular rotation player.
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