I’m going to be honest… I’m really trying to temper a lot of enthusiasm for this Celtics team right now. I’ve been saying their ceiling is middle-of-the-pack…
This puts Boston in a very unique position this season where fans can openly root for the team to reach it’s middle-of-the-pack ceiling without worrying about the trappings of being a mediocre squad. The Celtics can make their run at a sixth seed without having last season’s argument about where their draft pick falls – as long the Nets are terrible and doing our lottery bidding for us.
… but every where I turn, machines are spitting out projections that fly past mediocre. They keep saying the Celtics are going to be pretty good this year.
First, it was Nylon Calculus calling the Celtics a 49-win third seed.
Now, FiveThirtyEight is calling the Celtics a 48-win team.
For the first time in his brief NBA career, coach Brad Stevens will endure the burden of expectations, and that will start with getting this team back to the playoffs. Until GM Danny Ainge starts using the team’s surplus of future draft picks, Stevens will have to get there without an obvious superstar at the helm of his roster.
Even without that superstar, FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO expects the Celtics to go 48-34.
By the way: CARMELO is a fun way to say Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization.
Anyway…
48 wins! That’s better than mediocre. The machines are telling us that this group of Celtics, devoid of any real star power, is a couple of bounces away from winning 50 games this year. That’s pretty amazing.
Oh, and about that star power… look at what it says about Marcus Smart!
James Harden? GTFOH…
Really? I like Smart. I really do… but Harden?
Hey, remember when we were SO pissed we got the 6th pick and we had to get Marcus Smart? Imagine if he really did turn out to be Harden? Wouldn’t that be a fun “hey, funny how things turn out” piece to write.
WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT
See what happens when you don’t keep your enthusiasm in check? You run off half-cocked dreaming of 3rd seeds and the new James Harden.
I’m excited for this team. I think they’ll be fun to watch. They’ll probably win more than they’ll lose. Those are the only statements I’ll fully commit to at this point.
But maaaaaan, it’s hard not to get really excited about the projections.
And by the way, I’ll be talking about these projections and more in a new podcast with Jay King. It’s called “Rainin’ J’s” and we’ll record the first episode tonight.
We’ll be doing it over a Google hangout tonight and then giving you an MP3 version tomorrow. Follow me and Jay King on Twitter for more details.
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